INVEST 93L Comments Thread #1

[skysummit]

I don't think it has anything to do with the shear. I think the NHC just feels that it's still not well organized enough.

...and that's true. It's not well organized. It does look a little better than yesterday, however, it's still only a wave and nothing more. There's nothing to upgrade yet. Down the line that may change, but for the meantime we can expect these "ups and downs" as for as organization is concerned.

[HurricaneHunter914]

But if this already has near TS force winds and an LLC shouldn't there be an upgrade?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Hurricanehunter914 its different out there...If the recon would of found a LLC with 91L it would of been upgraded in 10 minutes. But the nhc likes to wait in see deep convection with these systems. Plus the system is likely to move into high shear over the next 24 hours. The Anticyclone is holding over it for now but shear should remain strong.

[WindRunner]

But if this already has near TS force winds and an LLC shouldn't there be an upgrade?

Not necessarily. Organization does play a role in TC status - a low-level swirl (i.e. Gamma part 2 last year) could have winds of TS force, but if there isn't enough convection, or it's too far displaced from the center, or if the NHC thinks that there is some reason it shouldn't be upgraded, then it won't be.

[gatorcane]

Hurricanehunter914 its different out there...If the recon would of found a LLC with 91L it would of been upgraded in 10 minutes. But the nhc likes to wait in see deep convection with these systems. Plus the system is likely to move into high shear over the next 24 hours. The Anticyclone is holding over it for now but shear should remain strong.

Looks to be the wave is so vigorous it is pushing away the high clouds that are being blown from SW to NE due to the shear. Have you seen this?

[jaxfladude]

Locking in 5,4,3,2,1: LOCKED

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My thinking...


Its a tropical wave with a weak LLC at 14 north moving over the islands right now. The wave axis is near 61 west moving westward. Strong upper level shear is pushing mostly of the convection off to the northeast. Another MLC is near 10 north...

I got looking into this in really I don't see any LLC but that weak one at 14 north. I also don't expect the enviroment to get any more faverable. Should get worst.

Read my discussion in my thinking thread. I think a Anticyclone should build over the western Caribbean/Gulf of Gulf of mexico by 96 hours.

[The Hurricaner]

Well, miami has a 70% chance of rain on sunday.

[CHRISTY]

Guys from what iam seeing if this track plays out this system will stay way south of south florida.

[Ivanhater]

Omg, People please...this thing does not even have a LLC..we all know how much the track changes even when there is a LLC relocating. Trying to say this will go south of here or stay west of here is ridiculous, when will we ever learn

[CHRISTY]

Omg, People please...this thing does not even have a LLC..we all know how much the track changes even when there is a LLC relocating. Trying to say this will go south of here or stay west of here is ridiculous, when will we ever learn

actually ive heard derek mention the ridge is forcast to build and it will probably be forced into central america.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I'm now even more confused, can one of the Pro-Mets tell me if there is an LLC?

[Ivanhater]

Omg, People please...this thing does not even have a LLC..we all know how much the track changes even when there is a LLC relocating. Trying to say this will go south of here or stay west of here is ridiculous, when will we ever learn

actually ive heard derek mention the ridge is forcast to build and it will probably be forced into central america.

what will? This thing reaches from south america all the way to the Northern windward islands, a LLC(if one were to form) could form anywhere along that axis, making track impossible to judge right now.

[Derek Ortt]

there is not a LLC and there has never been one. This is just a wave

[Ivanhater]

there is not a LLC and there has never been one. This is just a wave

Exactly

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Take a look at the low clouds over the islands at 14 north...Maybe a MLC but theres something. Also the shear is shearing all the convection off to the east of the wave axis. Also Derek over the Atlatnic it may not of been closed but it was a low level low pressure system. A v-max you say looks a heck of alot like a LLC at that time.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Take a look at the low clouds over the islands at 14 north...Maybe a MLC but theres something. Also the shear is shearing all the convection off to the east of the wave axis. Also Derek over the Atlatnic it may not of been closed but it was a low level low pressure system. A v-max you say looks a heck of alot like a LLC at that time.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Omg, People please...this thing does not even have a LLC..we all know how much the track changes even when there is a LLC relocating. Trying to say this will go south of here or stay west of here is ridiculous, when will we ever learn

actually ive heard derek mention the ridge is forcast to build and it will probably be forced into central america.

what will? This thing reaches from south america all the way to the Northern windward islands, a LLC(if one were to form) could form anywhere along that axis, making track impossible to judge right now.

True. But the shear is likely to destroy any chance for the next 72 hours. The Gfs shear models show a upper level Anticyclone forming over the western Caribbean/Southern Gulf at 96 hours. I would watch for the energy from this wave to flow northwest into the northwest caribbean or southern gulf by then/

[vaffie]

Guys from what iam seeing if this track plays out this system will stay way south of south florida.

Christy, the track you're looking at is a combination of the latest BAMS model prediction combined with damage estimates based on SHIPS strength projections. The reason that it's using the BAMS model is because since 93L formed, the BAMS has consistently outperformed all the other models, which have taken the storm north constantly, while it just continued following the lower-levels. BAMS is a non-dynamic model, meaning that it could care less whether a high or low arrives on the scene, it just forecasts based on what the situation right now. What that means is that in the long run, it's not going to be very reliable. So I would not make any hasty conclusions about the threat to Florida based on a model like that five days out. Once the globals come on board when it becomes a depression, it will be a lot clearer what it will do.

[wxman57]

Guys from what iam seeing if this track plays out this system will stay way south of south florida.

Christy, the track you're looking at is a combination of the latest BAMS model prediction combined with damage estimates based on SHIPS strength projections. The reason that it's using the BAMS model is because since 93L formed, the BAMS has consistently outperformed all the other models, which have taken the storm north constantly, while it just continued following the lower-levels. BAMS is a non-dynamic model, meaning that it could care less whether a high or low arrives on the scene, it just forecasts based on what the situation right now. What that means is that in the long run, it's not going to be very reliable. So I would not make any hasty conclusions about the threat to Florida based on a model like that five days out. Once the globals come on board when it becomes a depression, it will be a lot clearer what it will do.

Actually, the extrapolated track has significantly outperformed any of the BAM models. BAM models continue to shift left as this wave doesn't develop (as they forecast). They'll continue to shift left until they approach the current extrapolated track, taking the wave to Central America close to 15N latitude. From there, it'll most likely cross the BoC or into the east Pacific. At worst, a Bret-like storm from 2005 early next week. But with 30-35 kt low-level winds all across the Caribbean from the east, it's going to be mighty tough for the wave to retain its convection.