94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

HurricaneHunter914 · #481 Postby **HurricaneHunter914** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:14 pm

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Shear is dropping really fast in this area! If this continues the shear will be around 10 kts by tomorrow.

#482 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:14 pm

no advance wrote:It would be nice to get this stuff over in the SWest US

Well, it is dry there, but on the other hand it is the desert southwest. On the other hand, that fire engine red area extending from Lafayette, LA to Mobile, AL along the central Gulf Coast, is experiencing extreme prolonged drought and that is the definition of abnormal for this part of the world. God knows we don't need any tropical cyclones, but tropical moisture -- heck, widespread measurable precip of any kind -- would be greeted like it's manna from heaven.

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/drmon.gif

#483 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:18 pm

vaffie wrote:The swirl is occurring just north of the latest 94L position estimate, it's moving north, and it practically has a CDO right over it. Pressures are going to fall very fast at this rate. Tropical storm by 5 am tomorrow if not by 11 pm.

Very doubtful...there is nothing at the sfc...the wind field is not showing anything there and the pressures are very high with no indications of falling.

HouTXmetro · #484 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:19 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
vaffie wrote:The swirl is occurring just north of the latest 94L position estimate, it's moving north, and it practically has a CDO right over it. Pressures are going to fall very fast at this rate. Tropical storm by 5 am tomorrow if not by 11 pm.

Very doubtful...there is nothing at the sfc...the wind field is not showing anything there and the pressures are very high with no indications of falling.

Been waiting on you to chime in AFM!!!!!

#485 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:20 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
vaffie wrote:The swirl is occurring just north of the latest 94L position estimate, it's moving north, and it practically has a CDO right over it. Pressures are going to fall very fast at this rate. Tropical storm by 5 am tomorrow if not by 11 pm.

Very doubtful...there is nothing at the sfc...the wind field is not showing anything there and the pressures are very high with no indications of falling.

Well, actually....from Minatitlan, Mexico, just south of the BoC blob...they're reporting west winds:

Conditions at Jun 30, 2006 - 11:45 AM EDTJun 30, 2006 - 10:45 AM CDTJun 30, 2006 - 09:45 AM MDTJun 30, 2006 - 08:45 AM PDTJun 30, 2006 - 07:45 AM ADTJun 30, 2006 - 06:45 AM HDT
2006.06.30 1545 UTC
Wind from the W (270 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT)
Visibility 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions overcast
Temperature 78 F (26 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.97 in. Hg (1014 hPa)
ob MMMT 301545Z 27010KT 7SM SCT015 BKN050 OVC100 26/24 A2997 RMK 8/57/

#486 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:21 pm

corpusbreeze wrote: What is interesting is the west to west north west winds starting to show from that location.

Outflow boundry from thunderstorms.

Cyclenall · #487 Postby **Cyclenall** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:21 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
vaffie wrote:The swirl is occurring just north of the latest 94L position estimate, it's moving north, and it practically has a CDO right over it. Pressures are going to fall very fast at this rate. Tropical storm by 5 am tomorrow if not by 11 pm.

Thats a bold call, are you willing to eat crow? Feathers included?

I said that to him last night.

My thoughts this afternoon are "it looks good". The shear is at it though a bit. Man, shear always has to come whenever something is forming. It looks like a TD right now but the pressures are still high?

BTW, those shear maps are becoming useless to me. They seem to be wrong often. The NHC said there was shear over this one system and I looked at a shear map, there was 0-5 knots of shear over it according to the map. :roll:

#488 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:27 pm

vaffie wrote:We'll see. I might have to, but this storm looks a lot stronger than you guys are giving it credit. It doesn't have to become a TD first anyway, if it has a closed circulation and strong-enough winds, which I'm sure it will have in the next few hours if that convection hangs on. The buoy you're talking about is 125 miles NNE of the predicted center anyway, so with a developing system like this, it's not going to tell you much. And the central convection did not begin until just two hours ago. Wind is a lagging indicator anyway, especially that far off. First the pressure drops in the center, and then the winds pick up.

Actuallly...125 nm in this kind of system isn't that far. If you are thinking that it will skip the TD stage because of pressure gradient...then a buoy 125nm away WILL show a wind field in association with a developing low. It is not because there isn't one yet. Not saying there won't be something ...but it's not there yet and certainly not enough there to produce a 35 knot pressure gradient.

Extremeweatherguy · #489 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Fri Jun 30, 2006 12:32 pm

Nice ball of convection firing near the "swirl":

94L Invest (B0C),Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #1

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