99L Invest, East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis.jpg

The outflow is very impressive and the convection is holding nicely. The only problem is if it clears SA.

[Derek Ortt]

yes the eye did, but Ivan started far enough north to clear

This one is starting south of where Bret and is moving in a similar maner

[Noles2006]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992006) ON 20060728 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060728 1800 060729 0600 060729 1800 060730 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 8.3N 38.4W 8.7N 42.1W 9.1N 45.4W 9.6N 48.4W
BAMM 8.3N 38.4W 8.9N 41.9W 9.6N 45.1W 10.4N 48.0W
A98E 8.3N 38.4W 8.0N 42.7W 8.1N 46.6W 8.2N 49.8W
LBAR 8.3N 38.4W 8.6N 42.6W 9.3N 46.8W 10.1N 50.7W
SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 32KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060730 1800 060731 1800 060801 1800 060802 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.3N 51.3W 11.8N 56.8W 13.1N 61.8W 15.1N 66.5W
BAMM 11.6N 50.6W 14.1N 55.1W 16.0N 58.4W 17.6N 60.7W
A98E 8.5N 52.5W 9.8N 57.0W 11.3N 61.3W 13.2N 65.9W
LBAR 11.3N 54.6W 13.8N 60.3W 19.0N 62.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 48KTS 60KTS 66KTS 69KTS
DSHP 48KTS 60KTS 66KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.3N LONCUR = 38.4W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 22KT
LATM12 = 8.6N LONM12 = 33.6W DIRM12 = 265DEG SPDM12 = 22KT
LATM24 = 8.8N LONM24 = 29.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


18:00z Run od BAM Models.

Wow,it's racing westward at 22 kts.

that's a pretty bold call by the models. They have this thing as a hurricane in 5 days. I will not be letting my guard down with this one.

you have to keep in mind that the models initialize with a closed, defined center of circulation.... which this does not have. As the pro mets say, the SHIP model for intensity is not very useful until we actually have a depression or storm.

[shaggy]

to me the area of best rotation seems to be moving slightly more WNW in the last few frames but only time will tell the whole story

[curtadams]

very tough system to get a feel for it looks really good on sat images as far as a rotation standpoint go but the overall system does not appear to be consolidating any.altho around 8N and 37W seems to be looking tighter maybe thats where it will finally get going at IF it does.

The upper levels make it very hard to see what's going on. Upper level shear is easterly and stronger on the N side of the system. So the upper cloud look like they're rotating cyclonically when it's really only variable shear. Even on RGB it's hard to tell the difference between genuine low cloud rotation and upper shear artifacts. I can't say for sure what's going on.