Invest 91L,E Caribbean,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[jasons2k]

Just a reminder: Most mets said the wave that spawned Chris would amount to nothing and gave it a less than 15% chance of developing. A few days later Chris was a full blown TS. However, this time I think they may be right. We will probably have to wait for this to reach the central/west Caribbean for any kind of major development (though I would not be surprised to see this become a TD or weak TS before hand).

Also remember that Chris was very short-lived. There was a small window when his placement between the ULLs gave him favorable conditions and it conveniently happened during the diurnal maximum. As the storm quickly fell apart I remember posting something to the effect 'this isn't the anomoly; the convection that blew-up was the anomoly'.

[senorpepr]

101 people early and now 21

I just saw 121 on about 30 seconds ago.

I think there's something funky with the counters on the forums ... I've seen them go way higher than the total for people viewing the site now and then.

Sometimes, Google bots are on Storm2k. The total number will be low (because it counts seperate IPs), but the forum number will be high (because it counts individual views).

Another example is, if you were to have two windows open... both on seperate threads, it would count you twice.

[Trugunzn]

looks like a jellyfish

[bvigal]

It DOES look like a jellyfish!

[JonathanBelles]

haha. 91l the jellyfish

[Galvestongirl]

ummmm, what is a GOOGLE BOT?

[WindRunner]

101 people early and now 21

I just saw 121 on about 30 seconds ago.

There were over 240 on when 91 was starting to spin up on the sat images, however that didn't last long . . .

[senorpepr]

Just a reminder: the meteorologists were using something called "meteorological reasoning" while the rest were using their storm fetish to forecast with.

I think what SenorPepr is saying (besides that facts produce better track record in predictions than interest and desire) is, just because expert knowledge did not at a certain point in time predict the eventual outcome of one weak system (Chris), one cannot then draw conclusion that the outcome of the next system will be the opposite of consensus of expert knowledge. That is not logical.

That's like saying if today they predict rain and the sun shines, then consequently, every day they predict rain, the sun will shine. (OK, no cracks about your local forecasts!)

What I'm saying is that certain individuals would "go after" meteorologists because their reasoning didn't match up with the other's storm fetish.

Yes, in the case of Chris, the met's "meteorological reasoning" didn't work out. I wouldn't call it wrong--the affects we were speaking of were occurring, but Chris managed through it. (Although many of the mets were saying Chris wouldn't make hurricane strength when others said we were full of it.)

Oh the other hand, the other's weren't right with Chris's development -- they were lucky.