TS Ernesto #9 Sat pics, models,analysis thread

[Extremeweatherguy]

My gut has been telling me Grand Isle/New Orleans for some reason but I pray not....As long as SE Tx doesnt get a direct hit we are in good shape...Do have a hard time believing a weak front would actually reach us but who the heck knows???

NHC is a firm believer of something pushing more east now...JB i think this morning at 4am had eye over Cameron Parish, La...

When everyone started posting Texas, Texas, Texas...that was the first set of runs....

He had it at 27.5N, 92.5W on Friday morning...just offshore the TX/LA border.

[Mac]

That "whispy" appearance on the northwest side of the storm appeared late last night as well. I speculated at that time that it was being caused by shear.

PS-And that whispy appearance is outflow...at a difference level. Here is the deal...and I say this for the education of all:

Undercutting shear is hard to see on IR at night because the resolution is lower and the satellite only picks up the brightness of the coldest cloud. So...if there is a -50C cloud....it won't see the -20C cloud below it. Thus...you can't see clouds moving in different directions at the same location...you only see the coldest one. Plus the resolution is lower than a vis.

When we get vis imagery...you are just seeing a picture of what is happening and the lower clouds can be seen through the colder clouds. Now the warmer cirrus is being seen beneath the colder cirrus. The colder cirrus (higher up) is moving out WNW...but the warmer cirrus beneath it is moving E still...although a lot slower. At night you would only see the colder cirrus.

Make sense?

Uhhh...go back a few posts. You're saying exactly what I said. I stated that the "whispy" appearance on the NW side of the storm was not shear but outflow. So are you just busting my chops for the fun of it, or what? LOL

[Air Force Met]

So you are saying that as the shear is abating it is improving the outflow of the storm??? Or are you saying something else?

Yes....but there is still shear at a lower level...although that is improving as well.

[HurricaneHunter914]

So Ernesto is getting battered by shear in the lower levels. Right?
Edit:Never Mind

[Bailey1777]

AFM,

Your a busy man today. Question, at what point will you be able to tell if the front will actually make it or not. Is there something we can watch for with it.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Last update JB had Grand Isle i believe..

[bayoubebe]

I"m sure this is going to sound like a very stupid question to you pros out here, please bare with me:

When I look at the NHC track, the jump from Sunday to Monday in distance SEEMS to be much quicker(ie, the storm is moving faster, gains more distance) than the Saturday to Sunday move.

Does the storm pick up speed at that particular time or am I not reading this correctly?

If it does pick up speed, can someone please explain to me why.

[Mac]

So you are saying that as the shear is abating it is improving the outflow of the storm??? Or are you saying something else?

Yes....but there is still shear at a lower level...although that is improving as well.

That has been my concern since last night, and I've posted about it several times--that, as the shear abated, it may serve to vent the storm and actually help to increase its intensity.

Not so good.

[Air Force Met]

Uhhh...go back a few posts. You're saying exactly what I said. I stated that the "whispy" appearance on the NW side of the storm was not shear but outflow. So are you just busting my chops for the fun of it, or what? LOL

What part of this are you having trouble with? Did you run the loop will be my first question...

My second is understand that one level...at say 40K feet you can have outflow...but at a lower level...say 25K or 30K you can have shear. That is what we call undercutting shear.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Last update JB had Grand Isle i believe..

I just re-read his post. He did not say Grand Isle. In fact, he said he thinks a Katrina-like hit is unlikely. On Friday morning he predicts it to be at 97.5W, 27.5N (just offshore the TX/LA border).

[Air Force Met]

AFM,

Your a busy man today. Question, at what point will you be able to tell if the front will actually make it or not. Is there something we can watch for with it.

An August front? Themagic 8-ball says don't hold your breath. THose are rare and I don't see the setup needed for it. I think the models are overplaying it.