TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #7

[AJC3]

seeing north motion over the last few frames of the miami nexrad base reflectivity radar...max mayfield just called this a mediocre storm on WPBF 25 and didn't expect much from it.

dont use radar! visible is much better

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Radar is much better as the broad circulation is coming much closer and is lower and lower to the surface.

I'm sorry I'm just not seeing a westward movement. I'm seeing a more northerly movement.

Winds at the lower and middle keys have started to back around to NW-NNW. Center looks to pass between Long Key and Molasses Reef C-mans, head across Florida Bay with a Glades landfall east of the Flamingo fish camp.

[storms in NC]

FXUS62 KILM 292118
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
518 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
18Z CHS AND MHX RAOB SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BUT
ALSO A CAPPING INVERSION. WELL DEFINED PIEDMONT TROUGH TO THE WEST
HAS BEEN ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS CAP...WHICH PER GSO 18Z RAOB...IS
MUCH WEAKER/NON EXISTENT. SEA BREEZE PRODUCED A FEW SHRA EARLIER BUT
THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR GOT THE BEST OF THEM. WESTERN COUNTIES MAY SEE
ISO TO SCT TSRA THIS EVENING BUT ONCE DAYTIME HEATING ABATES
COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH. SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS RETURNS
TONIGHT TO WRN ZONES AS THE DECELERATING COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THIS
FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STORMS TOMORROW...MOST OF THE
ACTION SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR N AND W...POPS GENERALLY IN THE 40 TO 50
RANGE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT POPS A TOUGH CALL...GUIDANCE STILL QUITE WET
LOOKING BUT IF THE APPROACHING ERNESTO IS STILL ORGANIZED AS THE
FCST SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A TIME WHEN SINKING AIR AROUND THE STORM
SUPPRESSES ANY RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF ERNESTO AS
IT TRACKS ACRS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND FORECAST RAMIFICATIONS ARE
SIGNIFICANT TO SAY THE LEAST. CURRENT FCST OF A MOD TO STRONG TS
CUTTING ACRS WRN COUNTIES WILL BRING HEAVY RAINS...POSSIBLY IN BANDS
BY LATE MORNING SOUTH AND MIDDAY FARTHER N. ONCE THE CENTER GETS
CLOSER THE TORNADO THREAT ALONG AND EAST OF THE TRACK WILL INCREASE.
FOR WHAT THEY'RE WORTH THIS FAR OUT GFS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABOUT
1500 J/KG OF CAPE...MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR TORNADOES GIVEN THE
SETUP. PERHAPS ECLIPSING THE WIND AND SVR WX THREAT WILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. PV IN TH 400-200MB
LAYER SHOWING A NICE MAX DIVING INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...TRYING TO
TAKE ON A WEAK NEGATIVE TILT...WITH THE UPPER JET CONFIGURED OVER
THE NE SUCH THAT THE RIGHT ENTRANCE PASSES OVER THE CAROLINAS.
EXPECT A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMA
MORE IN THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE ALONG THE COAST AND ALSO POSSIBLY IN
EXTREME WRN ZONES WHERE THE FRONT MAY COME INTO PLAY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO GET ANY MORE DETAILED THAN THAT. ESF WAS ISSUED
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. ADMITTEDLY NOT MUCH THOUGHT PUT INTO
PERIODS BEYOND ERNESTO...IT SEEMS THAT THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT MAY
STILL BE IN THE AREA AND CLIMO POPS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER ARE
WARRANTED.

&&

[tgenius]

5-10 inches of rain for Dade? At rate its going, we'd be lucky to get .5 inches!

[SouthFloridawx]

The ridge is moving more quickly to the east than the models have shown. They will make the correction tonight as the new data is input. This is going to move more east of the track than expected. It is easy to see.




http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I agree!

[rnbaida]

The ridge is moving more quickly to the east than the models have shown. They will make the correction tonight as the new data is input. This is going to move more east of the track than expected. It is easy to see.




http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

so ernesto will move more to the east than expected???

[KFDM Meteorologist]

A little maybe. The GFS runs from 2 days ago had the eastern track across the state.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Winds at the lower and middle keys have started to back around to NW-NNW. Center looks to pass between Long Key and Molasses Reef C-mans, head across Florida Bay with a Glades landfall east of the Flamingo fish camp.

lol, Flamingo fish camp? I'm not familiar with FL... where is that (lat/long)?