Hurricane Helene,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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Thunder44
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#481 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:05 am

625
WHXX01 KWBC 181245
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060918 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060918 1200 060919 0000 060919 1200 060920 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.9N 49.9W 23.9N 50.9W 24.7N 52.1W 25.3N 53.5W
BAMM 22.9N 49.9W 23.9N 51.1W 24.5N 52.6W 25.0N 54.2W
A98E 22.9N 49.9W 24.1N 50.7W 25.0N 51.8W 25.4N 53.4W
LBAR 22.9N 49.9W 24.1N 50.8W 24.7N 52.2W 25.1N 54.0W
SHIP 110KTS 109KTS 106KTS 104KTS
DSHP 110KTS 109KTS 106KTS 104KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060920 1200 060921 1200 060922 1200 060923 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.4N 55.3W 30.5N 58.3W 35.0N 58.9W 38.2N 57.1W
BAMM 25.8N 56.4W 28.7N 59.3W 31.4N 59.8W 31.6N 60.5W
A98E 26.1N 55.3W 28.3N 58.9W 30.5N 60.7W 30.7N 60.4W
LBAR 25.7N 56.0W 28.1N 58.2W 33.0N 59.3W 37.7N 56.6W
SHIP 101KTS 93KTS 87KTS 80KTS
DSHP 101KTS 93KTS 87KTS 80KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.9N LONCUR = 49.9W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 21.3N LONM12 = 49.2W DIRM12 = 337DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 20.4N LONM24 = 48.5W
WNDCUR = 110KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 100KT
CENPRS = 954MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 175NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 125NM

$$

the 12z models initialized 110kts. That could mean 125mph or 130mph at the next advisory.
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#482 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:24 am

Thunder44 wrote:625
WHXX01 KWBC 181245
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE HELENE (AL082006) ON 20060918 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060918 1200 060919 0000 060919 1200 060920 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.9N 49.9W 23.9N 50.9W 24.7N 52.1W 25.3N 53.5W
BAMM 22.9N 49.9W 23.9N 51.1W 24.5N 52.6W 25.0N 54.2W
A98E 22.9N 49.9W 24.1N 50.7W 25.0N 51.8W 25.4N 53.4W
LBAR 22.9N 49.9W 24.1N 50.8W 24.7N 52.2W 25.1N 54.0W
SHIP 110KTS 109KTS 106KTS 104KTS
DSHP 110KTS 109KTS 106KTS 104KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060920 1200 060921 1200 060922 1200 060923 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.4N 55.3W 30.5N 58.3W 35.0N 58.9W 38.2N 57.1W
BAMM 25.8N 56.4W 28.7N 59.3W 31.4N 59.8W 31.6N 60.5W
A98E 26.1N 55.3W 28.3N 58.9W 30.5N 60.7W 30.7N 60.4W
LBAR 25.7N 56.0W 28.1N 58.2W 33.0N 59.3W 37.7N 56.6W
SHIP 101KTS 93KTS 87KTS 80KTS
DSHP 101KTS 93KTS 87KTS 80KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.9N LONCUR = 49.9W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 21.3N LONM12 = 49.2W DIRM12 = 337DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 20.4N LONM24 = 48.5W
WNDCUR = 110KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 100KT
CENPRS = 954MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 400NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 175NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 125NM

$$

the 12z models initialized 110kts. That could mean 125mph or 130mph at the next advisory.


And also it's still movimg NNW gaining more latutud.
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wxman57
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#483 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:27 am

I calculated a 12-hr movement of 340 deg. at 7.5 kts. That's NNW overnight.
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#484 Postby storms in NC » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:28 am

Yes it is going NNW. (JMO) but the last few frames it looks like it is going to start turning back to WNW. Have to wait a few hours to see it is a wobble or it is going back WNW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-wv.html
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#485 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:44 am

storms in NC wrote:Yes it is going NNW. (JMO) but the last few frames it looks like it is going to start turning back to WNW. Have to wait a few hours to see it is a wobble or it is going back WNW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-wv.html


Right, I have WNW-NW movement starting tonight then recurving around 58-59W.
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#486 Postby gatorcane » Mon Sep 18, 2006 8:52 am

I'm surprised more people are not discussing the 5AM advisory. Alot more uncertainty and the possibility exists of Helene not getting picked up by the trough and being caught by a building Western Atlantic ridge..

WHICH KEEP HELENE FARTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND END UP WITH
IT CAPTURED OR SLOWED BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE ON DAY 5
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