INVEST 92L SE GOM Sat Pics,Models,Analysis

[Extremeweatherguy]

this loop ( http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html ) shows the system very well. Looks like the circulation is just SW of the 85W, 25N intersection and is moving N or even NNW at the moment. Certainly has the "look" of a weak TS on satellite. Should be interesting to see what the hurricane hunters find as they investigate.

BTW: If this N or NNW motion continues, I wouldn't be surprised if the models shift further west. The panhandle should probably still watch this one closely.

[Aric Dunn]

recon is getting some flight level reading over kts ..

it may be classified.. if the criteria is met

recon is on the east side of the center.. west of key west

[windstorm99]

I agree its possible especially with those 42kt readings.

[tracyswfla]

recon is getting some flight level reading over kts ..

it may be classified.. if the criteria is met

Depression? OR TS or STS or nada?

[MiamiensisWx]

Yeah, this kind of continuous light rain is far better for soaking in to the ground. Looks like we'll be getting heavy rains later tonight, though, judging by what's passing over Cuba now.

You should experience some heavy precipitation over the next few hours. Heavy intermittent rainfall is moving into the Miami area. See the latest Miami radar loop. In addition, heavier rainfall should spread over the Florida peninsula during the overnight hours. There is a special marine warning for the embedded cell southeast of Key Biscayne.

SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
AMZ630-651-011815-
/O.NEW.KMFL.MA.W.0094.070601T1709Z-070601T1815Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
109 PM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
COASTAL WATERS FROM MIAMI BEACH TO OCEAN REEF FL OUT 20 NM OVER
ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...
BISCAYNE BAY OVER ATLANTIC OFFSHORE WATERS...

* UNTIL 215 PM EDT

* AT 108 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A STRONG SHOWER WITH STRONG WINDS OVER 35 KNOTS 17 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF CAPE FLORIDA...MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND 25 MPH.

* THIS AREA OF STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND BISCAYNE BAY.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD OR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

LAT...LON 2545 7993 2561 7989 2596 8012 2557 8030

$$

BAXTER

Source

I've been receiving steady light rainfall in Boca Raton for over one hour. I hope that the rest of the area (and the Southeast) gets a continuous soaking of rain.

[djones65]

WJS-3, I personally believe that Alberto and 92L 2007 are more similar than dissimilar.
If you look back over the past ten days there has been a general, broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea that was arguably part of the ITCZ. The upper trof over the western Gulf did create a strong upper level divergence over the NW Caribbean and it also caused the broad low pressure area over the western Caribbean to propogate northward. The surface low pressure area was pre-existing in my humble opinion, and when the upper trof interacted with it caused the widespread deep convection, but the surface low was equally responsible for providing the "focus." Alberto was a broad area of low pressure lingering over central america and a upper level trof over the Gulf caused a very similar pattern as 92L. I am going back to check, but in my humble opinion, any contribution from an easterly wave was simply "coincidental." I very much appreciate your posts and your opinions and I certainly respect you and them as well, but I personally didn't agree that a easterly wave had much contribution to the development of Alberto. Just like with 92L and Alberto, global models were in general agreement of low pressure development over Yucatan channel days before its formation. When I read the NHC report on Alberto it said, "thunderstorm activity increased on 8 June 2006 with the arrival of a tropical wave." However, disturbed weather had been present for several days preceeding the tropical wave. I see Alberto and 92L as very close analogs. Just my two cents.

[Aric Dunn]

recon is getting some flight level reading over kts ..

it may be classified.. if the criteria is met

Depression? OR TS or STS or nada?

either trop or sub ...

[wjs3]

recon is getting some flight level reading over kts ..

it may be classified.. if the criteria is met

recon is on the east side of the center.. west of key west

Aric:

I'm a big fan of the education you can get on this site. Earlier you made some comments about recon measurement of cold core vs warm core.

Want to drop some of the temp readings that recon is getting in this thread so some folks can see what that's all about? I've never done this before, but would enjoy trying it with some other people.

WJS3

[Aric Dunn]

WJS-3, I personally believe that Alberto and 92L 2007 are more similar than dissimilar.
If you look back over the past ten days there has been a general, broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea that was arguably part of the ITCZ. The upper trof over the western Gulf did create a strong upper level divergence over the NW Caribbean and it also caused the broad low pressure area over the western Caribbean to propogate northward. The surface low pressure area was pre-existing in my humble opinion, and when the upper trof interacted with it caused the widespread deep convection, but the surface low was equally responsible for providing the "focus." Alberto was a broad area of low pressure lingering over central america and a upper level trof over the Gulf caused a very similar pattern as 92L. I am going back to check, but in my humble opinion, any contribution from an easterly wave was simply "coincidental." I very much appreciate your posts and your opinions and I certainly respect you and them as well, but I personally didn't agree that a easterly wave had much contribution to the development of Alberto. Just like with 92L and Alberto, global models were in general agreement of low pressure development over Yucatan channel days before its formation. When I read the NHC report on Alberto it said, "thunderstorm activity increased on 8 June 2006 with the arrival of a tropical wave." However, disturbed weather had been present for several days preceeding the tropical wave. I see Alberto and 92L as very close analogs. Just my two cents.

well said.... !!

[hurricanefloyd5]

recon is getting some flight level reading over kts ..

it may be classified.. if the criteria is met

recon is on the east side of the center.. west of key west

S-17212557.
what did you mean "recon is on the east side of the center.. west of key west" dose that mean the center is in the GOM?????????

[DanKellFla]

The Palm Beach Gardens area has been getting light to heavy rain for the past few hours. There have been some moderate gusts as well.

[brunota2003]

recon is getting some flight level reading over kts ..

it may be classified.. if the criteria is met

recon is on the east side of the center.. west of key west

Aric:

I'm a big fan of the education you can get on this site. Earlier you made some comments about recon measurement of cold core vs warm core.

Want to drop some of the temp readings that recon is getting in this thread so some folks can see what that's all about? I've never done this before, but would enjoy trying it with some other people.

WJS3

Or dropping them in the recon discussion thread? Or both!

[Aric Dunn]

recon is getting some flight level reading over kts ..

it may be classified.. if the criteria is met

recon is on the east side of the center.. west of key west

Aric:

I'm a big fan of the education you can get on this site. Earlier you made some comments about recon measurement of cold core vs warm core.

Want to drop some of the temp readings that recon is getting in this thread so some folks can see what that's all about? I've never done this before, but would enjoy trying it with some other people.

WJS3

ok one sec..

[Aric Dunn]

here is the latest recco report decoded for you

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: INVEST (BBL)
Mission Number: 01
Flight ID: AF307
Observation Number: 05
Time: 1752Z
Latitude: 24.2°N
Longitude: 85.9°W
#NAME?
Turbulence: None
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 1000 feet
Flight level wind: NE (40°) @ 36 mph
Temperature: 66°F
Dewpoint: 66°F
Weather: Rainshowers
Sea level pressure: 1005 mb
Surface Wind: NE (30°) @ 35 mph
Remarks: None

[Aric Dunn]

temp looks a little low for being near the center dew point is also low.. i need more reports ... and when the vortex message come out that will help us... i will post it...

[wjs3]

WJS-3, I personally believe that Alberto and 92L 2007 are more similar than dissimilar.
If you look back over the past ten days there has been a general, broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea that was arguably part of the ITCZ. The upper trof over the western Gulf did create a strong upper level divergence over the NW Caribbean and it also caused the broad low pressure area over the western Caribbean to propogate northward. The surface low pressure area was pre-existing in my humble opinion, and when the upper trof interacted with it caused the widespread deep convection, but the surface low was equally responsible for providing the "focus." Alberto was a broad area of low pressure lingering over central america and a upper level trof over the Gulf caused a very similar pattern as 92L. I am going back to check, but in my humble opinion, any contribution from an easterly wave was simply "coincidental." I very much appreciate your posts and your opinions and I certainly respect you and them as well, but I personally didn't agree that a easterly wave had much contribution to the development of Alberto. Just like with 92L and Alberto, global models were in general agreement of low pressure development over Yucatan channel days before its formation. When I read the NHC report on Alberto it said, "thunderstorm activity increased on 8 June 2006 with the arrival of a tropical wave." However, disturbed weather had been present for several days preceeding the tropical wave. I see Alberto and 92L as very close analogs. Just my two cents.

Hey djones--

Great post.

I got my thinking from the NHC post-analysis too. If you can add any images, etc. to the discussion regarding Alberto's origins, I'd ceratinly appreciate and respect them.

I don't have NEARLY the memory you and others have for synoptics around these storms--especially the complex ones (I can only do so much from Chicago), so please set me straight. Love to see whatever you have.

WJS3

[Aric Dunn]

here are a couple min obs..
18: 17:52:00; 24.2°N 86°W; PA: 925ft; D-Val: -203 ft; Wnd: NNE (33°) @ 31mph (Max: 32mph); T: 67F; D: 67F; Radar Alt: 764ft
19: 17:52:30; 24.2°N 86°W; PA: 1037ft; D-Val: -200 ft; Wnd: NE (36°) @ 36mph (Max: 37mph); T: 66F; D: 66F; Radar Alt: 879ft
20: 17:53:00; 24.2°N 85.9°W; PA: 994ft; D-Val: -207 ft; Wnd: NE (39°) @ 38mph (Max: 40mph); T: 67F; D: 67F; Radar Alt: 827ft

[windstorm99]

So far those winds would appear for TD status but we have to wait and see if they can close of a center.

[wjs3]

temp looks a little low for being near the center dew point is also low.. i need more reports ... and when the vortex message come out that will help us... i will post it...

Yes, the temp seems low at the flight level, doesn't it?

Yeah, the vortex should help. I have never tracked the minobs through the various flight levels to see what's going on, so that's fun too.
Hope the mods don't mind that we are discussing recon in this thread, but it seems relevant to the system classification. Hope it's fair game here.

I have to run for a while!

See ya. Enjoy the discussion!

WJS3

[Chacor]

We're on 25 pages now, so I've started a second thread: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=95008