Invest 99L in Central Atlantic

[punkyg]

I can't wait til the 12:00pm news on channel 9, local 6 and wesh 2.
lets see what they have to say about the wave. I really want to see local 6 news at 4:00pm to see if Tom sorrels is there and see what he has to say about our new invest.

p.s Tom sorrels is funny.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think the NHC will wait until the 11pm to make an classifications on this thing......I don't expect them to say it is a depression at 11:00AM.....but they should indicate a strong tropical wave should be watched

probably tonight.l..

I think they'll wait for recon on Wednesday before doing anything on it. It has to have an LLC first, and it will also have to persist for a day or two before the NHC considers calling it a TD.

I agree. Unless is all the sudden looks EXCELLENT (which there is a chance it may do), I think they will probably wait to see persistance and possibly for recon.

[skysummit]

Can anyone say "Hurricane"?

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1428 UTC MON JUL 30 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070730 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070730 1200 070731 0000 070731 1200 070801 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.7N 45.7W 10.5N 49.0W 11.5N 52.5W 12.6N 55.6W
BAMD 9.7N 45.7W 10.5N 48.0W 11.3N 50.4W 11.9N 52.6W
BAMM 9.7N 45.7W 10.5N 48.1W 11.3N 50.7W 12.0N 52.9W
LBAR 9.7N 45.7W 10.4N 47.9W 11.4N 50.3W 12.3N 52.5W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070801 1200 070802 1200 070803 1200 070804 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 59.1W 15.0N 67.9W 17.4N 77.8W 19.3N 86.6W
BAMD 12.3N 54.9W 12.7N 59.9W 13.1N 65.1W 14.8N 70.2W
BAMM 12.3N 55.4W 12.6N 60.7W 12.8N 66.5W 14.1N 72.4W
LBAR 12.8N 54.8W 13.2N 60.0W 13.2N 65.2W 14.7N 69.1W
SHIP 43KTS 59KTS 69KTS 76KTS
DSHP 43KTS 59KTS 69KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.7N LONCUR = 45.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 9.3N LONM12 = 43.7W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 8.8N LONM24 = 40.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[WmE]

Wow SHIPS!

[hurricanefloyd5]

What are the ships reporting in the area if any at all???????

[KWT]

Its not really that surprising that the SHIPS go as strong as they do given the environment ahead doesn't look too bad.

[alan1961]

Yeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaa..99L..just needs to hang together through the daylight hours..come on baby Chantal..you can do it!

[Chacor]

Just came back from watching the Simpsons movie, so am not up to speed... is this the one that moved off Africa a few days ago?

[AnnularCane]

Another surprise invest! Well, sort of. I was starting to wonder if these Atlantic waves would ever be classified. And this one actually looks like something.

Chantal? Are you awake?

[Cyclone1]

Yeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaa..99L..just needs to hang together through the daylight hours..come on baby Chantal..you can do it!

Good to know I'm not the only one who talks to INVESTs. LOL

[hurricanefloyd5]

Chantal are you playing "HIDE and SEEK" today!!!!LOL this thread should be locked at any time now!!!!!!!!

[MusicCityMan]

Hurricane.. H U R R I C A N E hurricane lol..

So the models think this will develop into a hurricane by a few days down othe road?

btw.. about our local mets here.. I prefer to watch Tom Terry or Glenn Richards when a storm is out there.. but I'm interested to see how Tony Mainolfi would handle a storm after how well he handled the Feb. 2nd tornadoes..

[alan1961]

i think she's been having secret talks with Usagi in the western pacific ..your not having centre stage!!

[NDG]

One thing that this system does not has is its surface circulation outrunning the convection, at least at this time. I remember that most of the times in past years that the surface low outruns the convection & MLC and eventually dissipates. Not the case this time, and probably for other systems to come.

[dixiebreeze]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT MON 30 JULY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z JULY TO 01/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-068

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL
INVEST AT 01/1800Z NEAR 12N 57W.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[Cyclone1]

This thread should be locked now.

[Andrew92]

OK guys, I think it's a little early to be saying that this will likely become a hurricane. It's an invest, it's not even a depression yet. So everyone, just relax and watch the invest as it traverses west.

That said, it does bear watching. I do think it very well could become a tropical depression in the next couple days and quite possibly Chantal, before entering the Caribbean.

-Andrew92

[punkyg]

Hmmmm i wonder aric dunn is at. i wanna know what he thinks about 99L.

also where is Cycloneye?

[Derecho]

Hurricane.. H U R R I C A N E hurricane lol..

So the models think this will develop into a hurricane by a few days down othe road?

ONE fairly primitive intensity model (SHIPS/DSHIPS) believes so; with all intensity models being horrifically inaccurate even for hurricanes, and they're even worse being run on INVESTs.

GFDL won't be out for a couple hours but it is also horrible at predicting INVEST intensity.

[Blown Away]

TWC's Mike Seidel was fired up over 99L during the 10:50am tropical update. He basically said if 99L develops it will move NW through the islands, if 99L does not it will continue W in S America.