Invest 90L:East Atlantic,Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

[Normandy]

I think that QS somewhat cofirms my suspicions....In that image I see a decaying center at about 29 W (You can tell because there are no N winds on the western side of it). Need more visible images to be certain however.

At this point I think this might have lost its old center....just my opinion though.

[jlauderdal]

MIami AFD this morning.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WELL I GUESS I HAVE TO TALK ABOUT IT.
YEAH, THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC. GFS
AND UKMET INSIST ON DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM, NOGAPS DOES'NT KNOW IT
IS THERE AND ECMWF KEEPS FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN RUNS. TOO
EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH EFFECT, IF ANY, THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON
THE LOCAL AREA. BUT, AS OF THE LATEST RUN, GFS BUILDS A STRONG
ATLC RIDGE WESTWARD KEEPING THE SYSTEM S. OF THE ISLANDS AND
PASSING SOUTH OF CUBA SUNDAY EVENING. SHOULD THIS VERIFY, WE'LL BE
TOO FAR AWAY TO EXPERIENCE ANY DIRECT INFLUENCE, HOWEVER MODERATE
TO STRONG E/NE WIND FLOW BETWEEN THE SYSTEM AND THE ATLC RIDGE
WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CONVERGENCE AND HENCE PRECIP AND WINDY
CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. IN ANY CASE...CLOSE ATTENTION
SHOULD BE PAID TO THIS SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES WESTWARD THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY CARIBBEAN THIS WEEK.

[Normandy]

LOL!

For a comical relief....check this out...

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 5#controls

Frames 8:45 and 9:00 UTC (Aug 13).
Convection is heart shaped....90L loves you all.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ivan had a skull, you could tell what that baby was about ready to do. This has a heart...Meaning its a nice storm.

[WindRunner]

Finally ran the models . . . been waiting for this for only, oh, about four hours now.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0955 UTC MON AUG 13 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902007) 20070813 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070813 0600 070813 1800 070814 0600 070814 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 28.8W 13.4N 31.8W 14.3N 35.5W 15.3N 39.6W
BAMD 12.5N 28.8W 12.8N 32.6W 13.1N 36.4W 13.4N 40.3W
BAMM 12.5N 28.8W 13.3N 32.4W 13.9N 36.3W 14.5N 40.6W
LBAR 12.5N 28.8W 12.7N 32.1W 13.0N 36.0W 13.6N 40.2W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070815 0600 070816 0600 070817 0600 070818 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.0N 44.3W 17.6N 55.0W 18.0N 65.2W 16.7N 74.3W
BAMD 13.6N 44.2W 14.9N 52.3W 16.1N 59.8W 17.0N 67.9W
BAMM 14.9N 45.1W 15.5N 55.0W 14.8N 63.8W 13.8N 70.5W
LBAR 13.8N 44.8W 13.7N 53.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 44KTS 56KTS 63KTS 66KTS
DSHP 44KTS 56KTS 63KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.5N LONCUR = 28.8W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 12.4N LONM12 = 25.6W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 22.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Of course, the absence of a model run actually at 06z was a pretty telltale sign that they weren't upgrading . . .

[tropicsPR]

Latest visible loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[HurryKane]

LOL!

For a comical relief....check this out...

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 5#controls

Frames 8:45 and 9:00 UTC (Aug 13).
Convection is heart shaped....90L loves you all.

The little tease!

[wxman57]

Visible satellite indicates the center is well west of 28.8W (where the NHC initialized it at 0955Z. I see nothing east of 30W. Unless the LLC had dissipated, it's now beneath the convection near 30.5W. Again, I have it moving at 19+ kts not the 14-15 kts the models are initializing at.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Visible satellite indicates the center is well west of 28.8W (where the NHC initialized it at 0955Z. I see nothing east of 30W. Unless the LLC had dissipated, it's now beneath the convection near 30.5W. Again, I have it moving at 19+ kts not the 14-15 kts the models are initializing at.

I agree, the center being at 30.5 is my thinking to. The system is moving very fast on the base of the subtropical high. At this speed these systems have a hard time with eastly shear. If the LLC gets displaced this could become another 96 or 99L.

[cycloneye]

13/0615 UTC 12.4N 28.8W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[cycloneye]

FXCA62 TJSJ 130911
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
511 AM AST MON AUG 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS TODAY. EXPECT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY AND HAZY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

THE TUTT CENTERED OVER THE VI THIS MORNING...WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WEST
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...HELPING TO
DESTABILIZE THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE...AND INDUCE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR TUESDAY. THIS TUTT WILL THEN CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTH AND WEST AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...HAVING LESS OF AN EFFECT OF THE LOCAL WEATHER.

THE NEXT MAIN FEATURE WE ARE TRACKING CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE THAT CAME OFF AFRICA ON FRIDAY...AND IS NEAR 30 W
THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED 1006 MB LOW WITH THIS
WAVE...CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD CIRCULATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
HAS APPEARED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO.
LATEST COMPUTER GUIDANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER INDICATES SOME
DISCREPANCY WITH THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...WITH THE LATEST UKMET BEING SLOWER AND A BIT
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE LAST GFS RUN...AND THE LATEST ECMWF NOT
EVEN INDICATING A CLOSED LOW AS THIS WAVE APPROACHES THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. NO MATTER WHICH SCENARIO PANS OUT...WILL LIKELY SEE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND WEATHER WITH THIS WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE
LOCAL ISLANDS IN THE FRIDAY TO SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. PREVIOUS
FORECAST ALREADY INDICATED GUSTY WINDS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...SO
ONLY CHANGE THIS MORNING WAS TO ALSO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
HEAVY RAIN ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE MADE
SOME MINOR REFINEMENTS TO THE REMAINDER OF INHERITED FORECAST THIS
MORNING...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE DEEMED NECESSARY AT THIS
TIME.


The San Juan NWS discussion this morning.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Was surprised to find the 8:05 am am Discussion already posted at the TPC site just now:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007

<snip>

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1007 MB LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 28W/29W S
OF 18N...IS LOCATED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12N MOVING
W 15 KT. THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

[WindRunner]

EDITED and put my 00z diagnostics in the model discussion thread . . . top of page 20.