Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Well you may be right WXMN, however, it is already producing 30-35 mph winds around the Bahamas per latest quikscat and buoy info.

I'd guess that winds would be like even if nothing ever did spin-up. Look at 6Z GFS initial pressures. That is a monster high over New England.

[wxman57]

Well you may be right WXMN, however, it is already producing 30-35 mph winds around the Bahamas per latest quikscat and buoy info.

Yep, cold fronts with large areas of high pressure behind them often produce 20-30 kt NE winds across the area. Check out the latest surface analysis. Note the dew points in the mid 60s across Florida behind the cold front. Winds are being caused by the pressure gradient in the cold air, not by the development of a low center. It's just a cold front for now, ant it probably won't every amount to much. Certainly won't do anything with cool, dry air flowing into the region behind the front. Give it 2-3 days at the very least.

[SouthFLTropics]

Well you may be right WXMN, however, it is already producing 30-35 mph winds around the Bahamas per latest quikscat and buoy info.

I have to agree with WXMan...I don't see anything in this big mess that "currently" shows organization. The 30-35 mph winds that we are currently experiencing here in SFL are due to the pressure gradient between the high up north and the low offshore. There is no question about the fact that the winds are gusting pretty good and the rain is falling steadily. I'm on the beach right now and my truck is getting blown around pretty good. This may have potential for development in a few days but I don't see much out of it for now other than some higher than normal waves, winds, and tides.

SFT

[Steve]

>>I like JB, and to his credit, he did a video yesterday afternoon, but it still seems he'd rather snipe at NHC than elaborate on ideas about possible sub-tropical situation in Florida and/or GOMEX.

I've seen him bash the NHC even more times for not naming things. Just remember his company's $$$$$ agenda and you can see why he does what he does. It's not a professional disagreement, it's all about the money. And it's too bad, because Accuweather's corrupting influence and drive for money interferes with delivering the weather.

/not gonna be paying them a dime

Steve

[cpdaman]

WXMAN when you keep saying nothing will spin up, because of shear i thought this same shear may help fuel the development of a non tropical hybrid low in the SE bahamas. i beleive the same mechanism's were fueling the increased winds and the low pressure that developed off se florida before td 10 got into the gulf last week. it is windy as heck here (on the beach in boca) and i wonder if a non tropical low east of us is not PART of the reason why.

[cycloneye]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 011400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 01 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-129

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA --GULF OF MEXICO
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70
A. 02/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 01/1600Z
D. 24.0N AND 85.0W
E. 02/1700Z TO 2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 71
A. 03/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02KKA CYCLONE
C. 02/0400Z
D. 25.0N AND 86.0W
E. 03/0500Z TO 1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6 HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

It seems like NHC is thinking more seriously about this system.

[Bgator]

Wait, is this thing even in the gulf of mexico yet?

[MusicCityMan]

Based on that, does that mean they'll fly into it..? The TWO said nothing about recon @ 530

[chadtm80]

That Recon is set for tomorrow. And still dosent mean they will fly it at all.. It is set just in case

[cycloneye]

Based on that, does that mean they'll fly into it..? The TWO said nothing about recon @ 530

Tomorrow afternoon (if necessary) they will go.

[wxman57]

WXMAN when you keep saying nothing will spin up, because of shear i thought this same shear may help fuel the development of a non tropical hybrid low in the SE bahamas. i beleive the same mechanism's were fueling the increased winds and the low pressure that developed off se florida before td 10 got into the gulf last week. it is windy as heck here (on the beach in boca) and i wonder if a non tropical low east of us is not PART of the reason why.

Yes, non-tropical frontal lows develop in high shear zones, but they rarely amount to much in lower latitudes. In rare cases, something like the March 11-13, 1993 "Storm of the Century" can spin up in the Gulf, but it takes a lot more energy aloft and plenty of cold air. What we're looking at here is only mildly cool, dry air and a relatively small amount of energy to really get a strong subtropical low going. But the conditions are way too hostile for a tropical cyclone to form. So we get a weak frontal low that produces 20-30 kt winds in the cool air and 5-10 kts to the south. This will happen all winter in that region or in the Gulf. Doesn't mean anything tropical will come of it, or that the low will amount to much more than an inconvenience for offshore operators, boaters, and those on the beach hoping for some sun. Nothing to fly recon into today, and probably not for another 2-3 days.

Ok, off to enjoy a day off! Heading out on my bike.

[frederic79]

So what are they thinking about flying into, the ULL or a surface feature that moves in from the east of FL?

[rolltide]

Has anyone seen the cmc 2007100100 Forecast? It shows a strong low affecting the central gulf coast in 84 hrs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007100100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Sanibel]

My eye is saying too much dry air curling in under that Key West ULL center. Upper too hostile. Yes, another TD10 is trying to form out of this. But watch the deeper red IR convection now sneaking up in the Caribbean where the models said it would.

Once again our drought stricken area has been bypassed by the rain.

[eaglegirl]

From the FDEM/SERT Daily Status Briefing
Reporting period: 0900 hrs 10/01/07 through 0900 hrs 10/02/07


Tropical Weather Outlook

An Atlantic ocean tropical wave along 26w/27w south of 14n moving west 15 kt. Strong showers and thunderstorms from 11n to 12.5n between 27w and 29w. Isolated moderate showers elsewhere From 7n to 11n between 21w and 28w.

An atlantic ocean tropical wave is along 42w/43w south of 14n moving west 10 to 15 kt. Any nearby precipitation is in itcz. This weak wave is barely identifiable on satellite imagery due
To the lack of any organized cloudiness.

A tropical wave is along 91w/92w from 19n in the southwestern Yucatan peninsula southward through western guatemala into the Eastern pacific ocean. Upper level diffluent flow exists in
Mexico between 90w and 96w. Isolated moderate showers...some with warming cloud top temperatures...are between 90w and 96w in mexico.

[frederic79]

11:30 AM TWO:
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ARE PRODUCING SQUALLY
WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT...
PERHAPS OF A SUBTROPICAL NATURE...IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE REMNANTS OF
KAREN...EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS EASTWARD FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE REMNANT LOW OF MELISSA IS LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANTS OF MELISSA...PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

[boca]

Here in Boca Raton the sun has ben out for 45 minutes with a strong NE wind at 20mph. Although on radar rain is over the Atlantic heading west, its dissipatted before making it onshore. The miami radar is down again, so I'm using Melbourne.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... B&loop=yes

[Sanibel]

Those danged radars have been down a lot this year.


The west Atlantic/Caribbean has a semi-dry monsoon trough setting up over it. If conditions were to become favorable this widespread moisture would be conducive to development as late season troughs do in this area at this time of the season.

[frederic79]

The latest CMC, GFS, NGP, UKM and NAM ALL show development originating in the general area of the southern bahamas/northern coast of Cuba and extreme south Florida. This apparently is where the NHC expects to see something that requires recon. All these models take the low from this area to points ranging from the western to central Gulf Coast near the end of the week. Question is, if something does form, does the shear lessen in a day or two? I think Jeff Masters mentioned yesterday that an upper level anticyclone would eventually build over the central and eastern Gulf. SST’s still pretty high there.