ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

#4981 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jul 12, 2014 10:33 am

MJO looks to continue propagating eastward towards the western Pacific but the Euro and GFS ensembles show it to weaken once again as it reaches that area as it did last month. The UKMET is once again lost, IMO.

#4982 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Jul 12, 2014 2:10 pm

Here is an interesting articule about forecasters thinking what is going on with ENSO that has delayed El Nino.

:darrow:

El Nino plays coy with forecasters

Earlier this year, forecasts were hot and heavy on the development of El Niño. Conditions seemed favorable, and California is praying for a wet winter given the continued drought conditions. However, the trends shifted in the spring, thus leaving us wondering – is this El Niño really going to come to fruition? Forecasters (and the atmosphere) are waffling somewhat.

#4983 Postby **gigabite** » Sun Jul 13, 2014 3:38 pm

This might interest the El Nino watchers, The July New Moon pass is over the hot spot of the ESNO.

xcool22 · #4984 Postby **xcool22** » Sun Jul 13, 2014 4:42 pm

I have a ? gigabite .what is moon path

#4985 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 13, 2014 4:43 pm

In simple words what that means for El Nino prospects?

#4986 Postby **gigabite** » Sun Jul 13, 2014 6:37 pm

xcool22 wrote:I have a ? gigabite .what is moon path

My definition of it is: the path the latitude of the moon traces across the face of the earth. Which is not the same as the path the sub lunar point makes as the earth rotates. They move in opposite directions.

#4987 Postby **gigabite** » Sun Jul 13, 2014 6:55 pm

cycloneye wrote::uarrow: In simple words what that means for El Nino prospects?

There is a small correlation between the latitude of the New Moon and El Nino. At the July New Moon phase I would expect that the tidal budge would have a easterly movement. The duration of the event will not be long enough to describe an El Nino event, but it could help build warm pools. Accelerated evaporation should enhance cloud formations that would also move East which is contrary to my understanding of El Niño, because it should be a net positive SOI for the month.

Ptarmigan · #4988 Postby **Ptarmigan** » Sun Jul 13, 2014 9:35 pm

I think we could have El Nino. However, I think it is most likely going to be comparable to 1972-1973, a strong one, but not super strong. 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 are outliers. Is it possible to see one like them this year, perhaps.

#4989 Postby **Ntxw** » Sun Jul 13, 2014 10:09 pm

How about that noisy SOI, haven't heard mentioned it in awhile. From +10 to -7.9 pretty fast. :lol:

xcool22 · #4990 Postby **xcool22** » Sun Jul 13, 2014 10:28 pm

gigabite thanks

Hurricaneman · #4991 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sun Jul 13, 2014 11:43 pm

The CFS model lately has been showing a Madoki El Nino so its wait and see what will happen

#4992 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 12:57 am

Ntxw wrote:How about that noisy SOI, haven't heard mentioned it in awhile. From +10 to -7.9 pretty fast.

-8. actually. And all Nino regions have rebounded a bit. Another round of El Nino cancel cancel?

xtyphooncyclonex · #4993 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 5:55 am

Reminds me of 2006.... But I am thinking of something like a 2009 or 1991-type event.

#4994 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:53 am

Per the latest weekly Nino index updates, all regions except 4 cooled last week. 3.4 is down to 0.3C, 1+2 at 1.1C, and 3 down to 0.6C should be official in a few hours

#4995 Postby **Ntxw** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:57 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Ntxw wrote:How about that noisy SOI, haven't heard mentioned it in awhile. From +10 to -7.9 pretty fast.

-8. actually. And all Nino regions have rebounded a bit. Another round of El Nino cancel cancel?

We'll have to wait and see, I think we've mustered about all we can the first half of the event. Whatever we amounted back in Feb/April has sprouted up and is residue of the Ocean Kelvin wave. Now we are likely entering intraseasonal barrier part 2. What occurs below later July and August will determine what comes of it the second half, this is where years like 2012 failed while others like 09, 94 etc go. We will need another good OKW next month. We'll probably get several more rounds of cancels before then.

#4996 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:16 am

Text of the CPC weekly update that has Nino 3.4 down to +0.3C. Still some mixed things going on that the update says.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

#4997 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Jul 15, 2014 5:36 am

The Aussies update of 7/15/14 has El Nino on hold for now.

El Niño remains on hold

Issued on Tuesday 15 July 2014 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

Warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean over the past several months primed the climate system for an El Niño in 2014. However, a general lack of atmospheric response over the last month has resulted in some cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

While the majority of climate models suggest El Niño remains likely for the spring of 2014, most have eased their predicted strength. If an El Niño were to occur, it is increasingly unlikely to be a strong event.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

#4998 Postby **Ntxw** » Tue Jul 15, 2014 9:57 am

Some updated maps this morning. I wonder if they fixed the far eastern buoys, haven't seen them jump on and off as often

#4999 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Tue Jul 15, 2014 10:08 am

Ntxw wrote:Some updated maps this morning. I wonder if they fixed the far eastern buoys, haven't seen them jump on and off as often

Eyeballing that suggest it is above +0.5C. Interesting.

#5000 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Tue Jul 15, 2014 11:47 am

Levi's graphic is back up to +0.5C.

ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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