Long Range Models

[KWT]

18z does indeed take it out to sea, pretty much the only run in the last few days from any model to take that feature out to sea mind you...

[Mecklenburg]

18z run shows a more boring atlantic than the 00z run...

[jhamps10]

this is just my guess, but I think I see why the GFS takes this out to see.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_138m.gif

take a look at the mississippi valley, a negative tilt system, more common to mid winter snowstorms and blizzards, digs a good trough that kicks the tropical threat out to sea. no other model has this negative tilt system in the mid mississippi valley... taking this with a big grain of salt right now.

[Category 5]

18z run shows are more boring atlantic than the 00z run...

Oh god not this again.

[RL3AO]

18z run shows a more boring atlantic than the 00z run...

Good.

[Ed Mahmoud]

European 10 day shows a tropical storm or hurricane for almost everybody. Like a run of the CMC, practically!

[SouthFloridawx]

I was just going to post the Euro, you beat me to it. Pretty big system it's got on the horizon there.

[SouthFloridawx]

Did you guys check out the 500mb Forecast from GFS for 12Z?

Definite pattern change coming up in the next week.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_500_lu_loop.shtml

[Meso]

Choo-choo

[Scorpion]

Worth to note that every global model is latching onto a TC forming near 30 W in about 4-5 days.

[Scorpion]

168 hrs

[Scorpion]

228 hrs

[RL3AO]

Worth to note that every global model is latching onto a TC forming near 30 W in about 4-5 days.

Jeff Masters.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the reliable computer models forecast development of a new tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa about 5-6 days from now.

[cycloneye]

Gustywind and HUC,its over that Island,but its a looooong ways out so nothing is certain.

[Scorpion]

Very strong off the East Coast

[Scorpion]

Good thing this is a long way out

[KWT]

Yep I noticed that alot of models are forming something in 120hrs or so from a wave over Africa...still we shall see if it happens, there was the same sort of guidence with 93L and that hasnt done anything...yet!

[Scorpion]

Well actually the models disagreed on which wave would form. In this case theres a true consensus so far.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS loop=Look how the system moves into the Caribbean over Puerto Rico,and later goes to the East Coast of the U.S.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[KWT]

Looks a touch like Hazel 1954 on that loop IMO to me cycloneye.

Also Scorpion, thats a very good point and the models do take it pretty far west as well...however this is the first GFS run in a while to be this bullish on formation, the other runs from the model only have a weak system if at all.

Wonder what region over Africa it forms from?
Worth making a new thread I wonder?