Wave WSW of CV Islands

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmmm, we might have Colin by August 7th(or sooner) afterall...I wasn't so sure last night, but pretty intense cold tops with the rebuilding of the convection.

[Hurricane Andrew]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My forecast as of the 8PM TWO

Chances of Tropical Depression
24 Hours-80%
48 Hours-95%
72 Hours->99%
1 Week->99%

Tropical Storm
24 Hours-40%
48 Hours-70%
72 Hours->99%
1 Week->99%


Hurricane

24 Hours-<1%
48 Hours-5%
72 Hours-25%
1 Week-85%

[ROCK]

without vis or surface obs no way really to determine a LLC but convection has not waned after sunset..and those mighty cold tops..that is a huge indication to me....still embedded in the ITCZ though

[jlauderdal]

Do I need to buy gas for my generator or what??

Isn't generator fuel part of your hurricane prep plan every season?

Sure, sure! Buying fuel prematurely is a good way to assure that a storm never comes. It's murphy's law.

i start mine up and let it run for 20 mins, kept ike away

[MandiAltman]

Can any of you suggest a website where I can see the model tracks on this system? Weather Underground stopped posting them.

[JonathanBelles]

Can any of you suggest a website where I can see the model tracks on this system? Weather Underground stopped posting them.

Until an invest is redeclared, there won't be any more spaghetti plots available.

[AdamFirst]

Can any of you suggest a website where I can see the model tracks on this system? Weather Underground stopped posting them.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/


It's not the best site but it can suffice. The HWRF and GFDL aren't running the system since the invest was formally canceled.

[AJC3]

without vis or surface obs no way really to determine a LLC but convection has not waned after sunset..and those mighty cold tops..that is a huge indication to me....still embedded in the ITCZ though

These are the times that we rue not having Quick-SCAT, since ASCAT passes are so much narrower.

But you touch upon what I think is the main point...that the wave is embedded within a part of the ITCZ that is behaving in a manner not unlike of a WPAC monsoon trough. AFAICT there are at least two vort maxes associated with t-waves that are embedded within this part of the ITCZ. And of course, the C in ITCZ stands for convergence, which is quite strong in this area.



I don't foresee any sort of rapid spinup occurring in this case, since both (a) the consolidation of winds/convection; and
(b) separation from the ITCZ; tend to be gradual for this type of TC-genesis.

[Countrygirl911]

hi everyone i was wondering when will we know whereit is going and how strong seems like they are taking there time with naming it either invest 90L or Invest 91L or TD. I just hope they give people on the islands enough time to prepare for this thing hopefully by morning they will have this thing somewhat figured out as to give some people a clear look at where it is going and how strong i just pry it does not get in the gulf we really do not need it besides by the time it gets here if it does it will be close to the time i start back to college .

[MandiAltman]

Fact789...that's kind of what I figured but I thought I might be missing something. I'm kind of new to the whole tracking thing. It really is facinating!

AdamFirst...thanks for giving me something to occupy myself with until they redeclare it an invest. I'm on pins & needles!!!

[wxman57]

without vis or surface obs no way really to determine a LLC but convection has not waned after sunset..and those mighty cold tops..that is a huge indication to me....still embedded in the ITCZ though

I doubt there's anything at the surface yet. Hard to even find a mid-level spin yet. I'd say development chances next 48 hrs are much lower than 40%, maybe 5-10%.

[jaxfladude]

Stay safe y'all!

[HurrMark]

Yeah, without the spin, you're not going to see much development. I think this has a decent shot at development, but probably not before Tuesday or Wednesday.

I am very impressed with the ITCZ, though, especially considering the MJO phase we are in...

[hurricanefloyd5]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[thetruesms]

These are the times that we rue not having Quick-SCAT, since ASCAT passes are so much narrower.

But you touch upon what I think is the main point...that the wave is embedded within a part of the ITCZ that is behaving in a manner not unlike of a WPAC monsoon trough. AFAICT there are at least two vort maxes associated with t-waves that are embedded within this part of the ITCZ. And of course, the C in ITCZ stands for convergence, which is quite strong in this area.

I don't foresee any sort of rapid spinup occurring in this case, since both (a) the consolidation of winds/convection; and
(b) separation from the ITCZ; tend to be gradual for this type of TC-genesis.

Yeah, ASCAT always ends up being more frustrating than anything else

And I think wanting to help people realize this likely won't be a rapid spinup might be a bit like going into the wind

[Canelaw99]

Oy! Right into central FL coast, and what the heck is that monster storm it shows at the end of the run? Geez Louise...can you imagine the board if THAT thing comes to be? LOL

[StormClouds63]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Early stages of development ... this should eventually be Colin. As far as track, since it's so early, I see these possible scenarios:

1. Andrew-type track hitting south Florida and then into GOM

2. Floyd-like track coming very close to the east coast of Florida, then skirting the U.S. east coast.

3. Fran-type track with landfall in the Carolinas.

4. Isabel-type track with landfall farther up the U.S. east coast.

5. Fish.

I think #'s 1 and 5 are the least likely, but all of these are possible at this point.

Intensity? Category 2 or 3 storm ... farther south under the ridge, the more intense the storm. Turn to the NW, could get into cooler waters or more hostile upper level environment.

I think we've finally got something to track. Board should stay busy. Ivan, pace yourself and get a little sleep now and then.

[MandiAltman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Early stages of development ... this should eventually be Colin. As far as track, since it's so early, I see these possible scenarios:

1. Andrew-type track hitting south Florida and then into GOM

2. Floyd-like track coming very close to the east coast of Florida, then skirting the U.S. east coast.

3. Fran-type track with landfall in the Carolinas.

4. Isabel-type track with landfall farther up the U.S. east coast.

5. Fish.

I think #'s 1 and 5 are the least likely, but all of these are possible at this point.

Intensity? Category 2 or 3 storm ... farther south under the ridge, the more intense the storm. Turn to the NW, could get into cooler waters or more hostile upper level environment.

I think we've finally got something to track. Board should stay busy. Ivan, pace yourself and get a little sleep now and then.

Yikes!! Can't wait to see how this plays out!

[knotimpaired]

We were just informed that my husbands ex-wife was diagnosed with stage four pancreatic cancer.

Please keep those fingers crossed.

[Riptide]

We were just informed that my husbands ex-wife was diagnosed with stage four pancreatic cancer.

Please keep those fingers crossed.

I am wishing the best for her but how is this relevant to anything being discussed in this thread?