Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[SouthFLTropics]

Crawling over Cuba... That'd beat her up pretty good but she'd drop a torrential amount of rain.

[toad strangler]

I takes real good aim to hit the GA spine that squarely

[StPeteMike]

Considering we don’t even have an invest yet (although it should), models right now should be taken with a grain of salt. Considering we have multiple factors (tropical systems) that could change everything.

[SouthFLTropics]

Geez, 48 hours passed and it is still crawling over Cuba. She should be pretty banged up by then unless she manages to keep her center over water somehow.

[SouthFLTropics]

Cutoff developing in the Midwest, I would expect we will see the ridge erode and her start to turn North and NNE shortly.

[GeneratorPower]

Do you want Tampa to flood? Because the 12z GFS @ 300 hours is how you get Tampa to flood.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like Cedar Key this run, the consistency the last few runs is concerning

[GeneratorPower]

Do you want Tampa to flood? Because the 12z GFS @ 300 hours is how you get Tampa to flood.

312 brings it into the Big Bend of Florida. What is interesting is we know this is fantasy land BUT it's been fairly consistent. Anyway, something to watch for Florida people, so that's interesting at least.

[cheezyWXguy]

If the storm ends up missing the greater Antilles, I am concerned at how strong it could become

[GeneratorPower]

If the storm ends up missing the greater Antilles, I am concerned at how strong it could become

I think this is all we can really gather at this point. Potential threat inbound, and the details make all the difference.

[StPeteMike]

Do you want Tampa to flood? Because the 12z GFS @ 300 hours is how you get Tampa to flood.

Just a clobberfest on the whole area.

[caneseddy]

GFS very consistent since 18z run yesterday showing a Florida landfall

9/9 18z run: landfall in South Florida scraping the east coast run

9/10 00z run: landfall north of Tampa around Nature Coast

9/10 06z run: landfall in middle keys and going up the west coast of Florida with NE quadrant over metro South Florida and Lake Okeechobee

9/10 12z run: landfall north of Tampa around Nature Coast/Big Bend

Of course over 300 hours out but no wild swings so far like we are used to

Also has support of Euro 00z run and ensembles

Interesting times to come

[Hurricaneman]

If the storm ends up missing the greater Antilles, I am concerned at how strong it could become

True, the thing I’m vigilant of is if this takes the same path extrapolated but is 50 to 100miles farther south before the turn, that would be worst case for Tampa and possibly even the Orlando area so watching East the next week or two for this one

[aspen]

If the storm ends up missing the greater Antilles, I am concerned at how strong it could become

I’m more concerned about this undergoing ERI as it nears the Lesser Antilles. If it stays low, it’ll pass through a pocket of SSTs high enough to support a sub-900 mbar system, and the GFS’ track and system size is reminiscent of Maria that also bombed out in the same area.

[gatorcane]

Isn’t this the same GFS many were considering a “trash” model not too long ago? Now we are discussing specific impacts to Florida the model is showing from a wave that is just exiting Africa? The wave is concerning and needs to be watched but being in the target zone of nearly a 300 hour GFS run no matter how consistent is the place to be.

[BobHarlem]

GFS is splitting the wave energy off before it moves it west, seems pretty unlikely. The Canadian probably has a better idea on this one. We'll see though. It's Team West blob (GFS) vs East blob (Canadian) Scenario. In other words, I wouldn't even assume it's going that far west yet, new 12z Euro run will be the tiebreaker for that though (at least for today).

[psyclone]

Isn’t this the same GFS many were considering a “trash” model not too long ago? Now we are discussing specific impacts to Florida the model is showing from a wave that is just exiting Africa? The wave is concerning and needs to be watched but being in the target zone of nearly a 300 hour GFS run no matter how consistent is the place to be.

100% accurate. The GFS loves to destroy places with 300 hour fantasy storms. Looking more recently 5 day tracks from the NHC shows the same flavor. Early tracks showed significant impacts to the tampa bay area from Dorian, this year's storm "I" and...Laura. We got nothing from all 3. If 5 day tracks from the pros are prone to strike outs then 10+ day model runs should be looked at as nothing other than entertainment. Something might happen...or not. But it is certainly worth watching. focusing on specific solutions...just not worth it. Laura ended up all the way on the other side of the Gulf from initial expectations.

[GCANE]

12Z GFS has a very tight LL Vort thru the MDR.

Very weak Rossby wave over mid CONUS as this is in the w Carib.

At this point would track into a strong ARWB which reduces shear to about zero with little steering.
Likely would be a loose cannon in the GoM.

Could be a major in the east GoM since a poleward outflow may be in place from a trof east of the Bahamas.
May take a hit if in the west GoM since the Rossby wave may setup a negative-tilt trof which would create a PV Streamer over the TC.

In either case, would likely be deep enough to pull moisture out of the EPAC.

[cycloneye]

2 PM EDT Tropical Weather Discussion:

A tropical wave off the west coast of Africa along 18W is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N
between 16W and 22W. Gradual development of this system is
forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form by this
weekend or early next week while the system moves generally
westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This
system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during
the next 48 hours, and a high chance during the next five days.
Please see the North Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for the
latest updates.

[lsuhurricane]

12z GFS Ensembles strongly favor an intense hurricane recurving away from the Eastern seaboard.