Tropical Wave in Bay of Campeche (Is Invest 91L)

[Ubuntwo]

After 240 hours, the op GFS just becomes the best initialized ensemble It drops to ensemble resolution then. The next Cat 4 to hit Texas is an interesting map, but steering to me suggests (if it doesn't change), the E Gulf has a higher risk. Lets see if the 0Z GFS past the resolution truncation shows a different landfall. Those of you with PPV weather should be posting them already.

S2K glitchy, too many people locked in on a distant off hour GFS solution.

This is no longer true, since GFS V15 there has been uniform resolution through hour 384 (though the frame spacing does go up).

[TomballEd]

After 240 hours, the op GFS just becomes the best initialized ensemble It drops to ensemble resolution then. The next Cat 4 to hit Texas is an interesting map, but steering to me suggests (if it doesn't change), the E Gulf has a higher risk. Lets see if the 0Z GFS past the resolution truncation shows a different landfall. Those of you with PPV weather should be posting them already.

S2K glitchy, too many people locked in on a distant off hour GFS solution.

This is no longer true, since GFS V15 there has been uniform resolution through hour 384 (though the frame spacing does go up).

At any rate, this is when II miss the S2k boiler plate about most of us not being pro-mets. Also why I only think E Gulf is more at risk, and can't say it is certain, guidance on 500 mb pattern is also 10+ days out.

[Category5Kaiju]

So it looks like if the GFS were to develop this system, it's going to wait until the WCAR to really form. On the other hand, you've got the Euro ensembles, which have been very adamant about this system entering and traveling through the Caribbean Sea as an intensifying hurricane. Hmm.....

[Stratton23]

Even though gfs goes into mexico on this run, im not liking the weakness showing up over the south central states and texas, CMC looks like a texas run… Lots to watch but it appears models are starting to target the western gulf more now

[IcyTundra]

0Z models

ICON: Significant SW shift compared to the 12Z run. Moving WNW towards the Yucatán as a strengthening 989 mb TS/ cat 1.

CMC: 974 mb hurricane landfall south of Cozumel at 174 hours. Enters the BOC and begins turning to the NW with the run ending with a 985 mb system.

GFS: Slowest developer out of the 3 waits until it is near Jamaica to become a TS. Landfall as 994 mb TS near Cozumel at 210 hours. Intensifies in the BOC and makes landfall as 956 mb hurricane south of Tampico. Ridging really builds in on this run forcing it nearly due west towards Mexico.

[TomballEd]

GFS waits to 80W to develop the AOI, and cruises it somewhere between Veracruz and Tampico as a major after hitting the Yucatan as a strong TS or Cat 1 hurricane. I expect random Gulf solutions, at least until a coherent surface low closes off.

[IcyTundra]

0Z GEFS still with many members that develop much quicker than the operational GFS recurving over the Greater Antilles. Most models have shifted away from solutions favoring faster development and a recurve over the Greater Antilles but there are still a few EPS members that show this possibility as well.

[mantis83]

good news for the U.S. if these south trends continue.......

[TomballEd]

Ensembles that develop the AOI quickly are tending to cross the Greater Antilles and many won't get to the Gulf. Some are developing late, bedtime before the end of the run. the late develops favor the Yucatan and then Gulf or even one and done in Central America. Again, the timing of development is a major influence on final landfall (if any). That means too early to lock in on anything but generic solutions.

[Stratton23]

mantis83 that is completely false

[Teban54]

The time frame is pure funsies, but 0z GFS has the system survive the crossover to EPAC and make landfall in Baja California

[Fancy1002]

The time frame is pure funsies, but 0z GFS has the system survive the crossover to EPAC and make landfall in Baja California

https://i.postimg.cc/Pr475q5m/gfs-mslp-pcpn-epac-fh186-354.gif

It looks to me like the remnants of the first system gets dragged north across Mexico and into the US, while a separate core that was riding beneath It develops into that second system.

Correction. I checked the Z700 vort, And even though all the convection from the system is dragged north, the low pressure core does survive and get dragged over into becoming that second system.

[Stratton23]

GEPS has most of its members reaching the gulf in 6.5 days or so, much faster than any of the other models or ensembles

[Cpv17]

Back up to 0/50% odds for development.

[Stratton23]

Big yikes on the 00z EPS

[Weathertracker96]

Big yikes on the 00z EPS

Oh no. What does it show?

[Stratton23]

Weathertracker96 many more powerful members, several sub 940’s as well, spread from texas to florida, but i really dont see any weak members on that run and thats somewhat alarming

[Weathertracker96]

Weathertracker96 many more powerful members, several sub 940’s as well, spread from texas to florida, but i really dont see any weak members on that run and thats somewhat alarming

Yes that is. Thanks for sharing. Hoping we get an invest soon and that should help the model tracks. I’m concerned about any system that gets in gulf. They seem to overachieve

[IcyTundra]

0Z Euro: TS into the Yucatán near Cozumel starts to turn northward in the Gulf towards the east-central gulf and is a 980 mb when the run ends.

[Frank P]

Run ends at h240 with 977 mb and heading in a northerly direction.

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