99L Invest,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[flhurricaneguy]

thank you. hopefully it will just die off today

[Nimbus]

Pressures this morning dipped below 1009 at buoy 42058.

Since then the wind has swung around from the WSW after the low area passed that buoy.

Convection is flaring and persistant near 15N 76W so we may have a low level center in there when recon checks.

The models look like they are going to sweep north and right from Mexico rather than sweep left from Florida due to the further east initialization.

Even with the front going stationary the ridge should keep this west of Florida. It will be interesting to see what the models do once they are initialized with a LLC.

[flhurricaneguy]

so are you saying that florida is safe?

[x-y-no]

Buoy 42058 has switched to SW winds!!!


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

WSW now even ...

What interests me is that this bouy is well over a degree north of where the operational models initialized the system this morning.

So what you're implying is that if there is a LLC trying to form, it would be much further north than what the models are indicating....therefore, a much less likely west track into Central America?

Yes, exactly. The operational models (such as they are ... it's really only the BAMs right now) initialized the system down at 13.7N. Even so, the BAMM and BAMD (the deeper layer versions) took the system WNW. If in fact the system is spinning up now (but centered over a degree north of where the models put it) then it would likely track into the Yucatan channel.

If it isn't spinning up, then it will likely track more westerly like the BAMS took it this morning.

Right now, I'd say this thing looks pretty likely to have a closed circulation soon if it doesn't already.

[Nimbus]

so are you saying that florida is safe?

This means we don't have to all run out to the service station and use up Floridas gas reserves yet.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks like LLC is becoming fully operational to me too...

[flhurricaneguy]

this wave really looks like its getting its act together quick!

[skysummit]

Looks like LLC is becoming fully operational to me too...

I agree. I believe it's a go! I can't wait for more visible imagery to become available.

[flhurricaneguy]

here comes stan!

[caneman]

While this doesn't pick up an LLC just yet the scatt winds indicate TD stregth winds


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

[DESTRUCTION5]

While this doesn't pick up an LLC just yet the scatt winds indicate TD stregth winds


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

No but it does catch one East of Islands...

[x-y-no]

so are you saying that florida is safe?

I wouldn't go that far. There's going to be a weakness to the north over Florida in the 2 to 3 day timeframe before the ridge really builds in. The ULL is going to move NE in that same timeframe.

So it all depends on how far north this thing forms, and exactly what speed it moves at. Too fast and the ULL shears it apart. Too slow and the ridge builds over it and steers it west. Right in the middle and it tracks north towards FL (probably west coast).

[skysummit]

Check out the banding in the lastest image. It's looking better and better every 30 minutes.

[caneman]

so are you saying that florida is safe?

I wouldn't go that far. There's going to be a weakness to the north over Florida in the 2 to 3 day timeframe before the ridge really builds in. The ULL is going to move NE in that same timeframe.

So it all depends on how far north this thing forms, and exactly what speed it moves at. Too fast and the ULL shears it apart. Too slow and the ridge builds over it and steers it west. Right in the middle and it tracks north towards FL (probably west coast).

Very well thought out and I agree. Quick developement like today, same speed and further north development look out Florida.

[Dean4Storms]

Definitely showing signs of TC formation on visibles this AM. I note the convection building inward toward the suspected center and the tale tell signs of banding features beginning to form. An early CC twist is also starting to develop.

Looks like a TD by tonight if this trend continues.

[flhurricaneguy]

Does anyone know if recon is checking this out?

[skysummit]

Does anyone know if recon is checking this out?

Nothing yet...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 251500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
1100 AM EDT SUN 25 SEP 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z SEP 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-120

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[CHRISTY]

i think what ever forms here will be pulled north east as the winds shift once this coldfront comes down! so florida may be the place.

[cycloneye]

724
NOUS42 KNHC 261430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
1030 AM EDT MON 26 SEP 2005
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z SEP 2005
TCPOD NUMBER.....05-121

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE INVEST AT 28/18Z
NEAR 18N 81W.



The above is from yesterdays plan of the day.

As MW said yesterday we will know how the level of interest at NHC is for this system with the plan of the day.Now let's see todays plan to see if they continue with the same task tommorow or they add more missions.

[CHRISTY]

i think what ever form here will be pulled north east with time as the winds shift once this front comes!