TD 24,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[markymark8]

Future Wilma still has alot of organizing to do. She doesn't look that good right now. I thought she would of been cranking by now for sure. Seems there is still some shear out there. Anybody know when the shear is supposed to lighten up some more? If the atmosphere gets right we should see her intensify pretty quick. I really thought when I woke up today we would of seen a storm by now.

[jkt21787]

Future Wilma still has alot of organizing to do. She doesn't look that good right now. I thought she would of been cranking by now for sure. Seems there is still some shear out there. Anybody know when the shear is supposed to lighten up some more? If the atmosphere gets right we should see her intensify pretty quick. I really thought when I woke up today we would of seen a storm by now.

There is no real shear at all. Its just getting its inner core together. All very typical for developing storms such as this.

[JTD]

I just wanted to say how impressed I am with this thread. People sharing opinions, no flame wars going on.

Let's keep it up

[fasterdisaster]

Future Wilma still has alot of organizing to do. She doesn't look that good right now. I thought she would of been cranking by now for sure. Seems there is still some shear out there. Anybody know when the shear is supposed to lighten up some more? If the atmosphere gets right we should see her intensify pretty quick. I really thought when I woke up today we would of seen a storm by now.

There's no shear that's inhibiting this. It's just the high pressure that has some dry air, but TD 24 has a good structure and is just developing. Strengthening will be slow today, but intensification will speed up when the high pressure weakens.

[cycloneye]

I just wanted to say how impressed I am with this thread. People sharing opinions, no flame wars going on.

Let's keep it up

I share that 100%.And Jason if you look at the recon thread replies are almost none because I advertise the members about not repliyng there while the recon data is posted and I am very proud of the members that haved followed my advise.

[fasterdisaster]

Current recon has sustained winds of 29 mph, and that's a very low altitude, so surface winds should be close to that. Winds will increase as the recon gets closer.

[Blown Away]

If Wilma impacts Fl it looks like Thursday-Friday. Alot will change before that, it always does. IMO this is a Keys/SFL event, 1) Irene 99' type track w/ landfall between Ft. Myers & Keys then out near South/Central FL or 2) Hard Right through the Keys and E of the Peninsula. 3) East of Fl it still a possibility.

[jkt21787]

Current recon has sustained winds of 29 mph, and that's a very low altitude, so surface winds should be close to that. Winds will increase as the recon gets closer.

Actually the latest recon had a height still of 20,000 feet, and thats quite high. I'm not sure they are at operational level yet.

[fasterdisaster]

Current recon has sustained winds of 29 mph, and that's a very low altitude, so surface winds should be close to that. Winds will increase as the recon gets closer.

Actually the latest recon had a height still of 20,000 feet, and thats quite high. I'm not sure they are at operational level yet.

Lol. Sorry, I can't tell what's high and what's low. They're at 400mb, I thought that was low.

[markymark8]

Future Wilma still has alot of organizing to do. She doesn't look that good right now. I thought she would of been cranking by now for sure. Seems there is still some shear out there. Anybody know when the shear is supposed to lighten up some more? If the atmosphere gets right we should see her intensify pretty quick. I really thought when I woke up today we would of seen a storm by now.

There's no shear that's inhibiting this. It's just the high pressure that has some dry air, but TD 24 has a good structure and is just developing. Strengthening will be slow today, but intensification will speed up when the high pressure weakens.

Yeah I see that now. Looks like Monday we will see her start cranking. Monday the shear is going to be less than 5 knots and the dry air should stop getting in to its northwest side which is perfect for a brewing hurricane with warm ocean temps.

[senorpepr]

Current recon has sustained winds of 29 mph, and that's a very low altitude, so surface winds should be close to that. Winds will increase as the recon gets closer.

Actually the latest recon had a height still of 20,000 feet, and thats quite high. I'm not sure they are at operational level yet.

Lol. Sorry, I can't tell what's high and what's low. They're at 400mb, I thought that was low.

The higher the pressure, the closer to the surface. They are at 20,000 ft. Operational level should be around 1,500 to 5,000ft.

[quandary]

Future Wilma still has alot of organizing to do. She doesn't look that good right now. I thought she would of been cranking by now for sure. Seems there is still some shear out there. Anybody know when the shear is supposed to lighten up some more? If the atmosphere gets right we should see her intensify pretty quick. I really thought when I woke up today we would of seen a storm by now.

There's no shear that's inhibiting this. It's just the high pressure that has some dry air, but TD 24 has a good structure and is just developing. Strengthening will be slow today, but intensification will speed up when the high pressure weakens.

Uh... there's no high pressure at the surface since that would increase the gradient and the gradient is wimpy right now. The high pressure aloft would be good for the cyclone's intensification. Dry air is probably the biggest culprit. Shear's not really evident because everything is relatively symmetrical.

[hicksta]

Anyway this could get under them and go into the western gulf

[whereverwx]

I hope you don't mind if I try forecasting in here...

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I tried to make it simple and easy to ready. Also, I did not include the forecast positions… since this storm appears to be very unpredictable at the moment.

[CHRISTY]

i have a question if it continues to move this slow wont this be bad because it will give time for that front to come down?opinons.

[HurricaneQueen]

Blown Away:

I'll take door number 3, please!!!

Lynn

[markymark8]

i have a question if it continues to move this slow wont this be bad because it will give time for that front to come down?opinons.

It depends on the timing. Timing is the whole dealio on future tracks of storms. It is still possible depending on movement the front will not even pick her up at all and maybe even just wobble around out there for a while. The biggest thing is how far south will the trough dig???

[SkeetoBite]

Calamity,

Just awesome! Great job on the map. That's what it's there for!

[WeatherEmperor]

12Z UKMET has shifted well to the left. Wonder what this means.

<RICKY>

[sunny]

12Z UKMET has shifted well to the left. Wonder what this means.

<RICKY>

How far left?