Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

#501 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 10:02 am

mtm4319 wrote:The storm moved quickly across Florida, and only spent one "advisory" over land (#9). By advisory #10, it was back over water (albeit barely) and had strengthened back into a hurricane. But with Weather Underground's way of showing a storm track, it looks as if it strengthened over Florida when it actually didn't.

THANKS VERY MUCH FOR THE EXPLANATION!

#502 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 10:06 am

+ 500 POSTS ALREADY ON EPSILON!

#503 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 10:41 am

BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS WE SPEAK. MAYBE NOW THE FORECAST IS RIGHT AND REAL WEAKENING IS TAKING PLACE!

quandary · #504 Postby **quandary** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 10:44 am

It's okay, this is 3 days after it was expected to drop down to TS strength.

#505 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 11:01 am

HURAKAN wrote:+ 500 POSTS ALREADY ON EPSILON!

It is turning out like those superlong threads of Katrina and Wilma however (Katrina) 112 pages and (Wilma) 268 pages will not be reached here.

#506 Postby **EDR1222** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 11:42 am

Wouldn't it be something if Epsilon follows the BAMM model and makes it all the way down toward the Leeward Islands as a low pressure system. I know odds are against that happening, and even if it happened, it probably wouldn't amount to much, but after everything that has happened this season, it wouldn't surprise me. Maybe Epsilon sticks around for New Years Eve? 8-)

#507 Postby **curtadams** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 11:52 am

EDR1222 wrote:Wouldn't it be something if Epsilon follows the BAMM model and makes it all the way down toward the Leeward Islands as a low pressure system. I know odds are against that happening, and even if it happened, it probably wouldn't amount to much, but after everything that has happened this season, it wouldn't surprise me. Maybe Epsilon sticks around for New Years Eve?

You *know* the folks at the NHC don't want that, because they have to keep writing discussions as long as it's a substantial system. If somebody has to skip a holiday party to write up a TC discussion - well, you probably don't want the children to hear what will get said!

aerojad · #508 Postby **aerojad** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:10 pm

I'd look forward to the entertaining discussions... haha.

caribepr · #509 Postby **caribepr** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:22 pm

aerojad wrote:I'd look forward to the entertaining discussions... haha.

Of course you would! You are in MICHIGAN!!!

edited to say: I've really enjoyed the discussions lately as well...when hurricane discussions make you laugh, it's a good thing.

WindRunner · #510 Postby **WindRunner** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 12:30 pm

I was thinking 55kts for the models, but now it seems like it's coming back a little, with slightly deeper convection around the eye. And maybe a hint of SE movement towards the end of the loop right now?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

#511 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 1:12 pm

TPNT KGWC 061800
A. HURRICANE EPSILON (TWENTY-NINE)
B. 06/1731Z (127)
C. 31.6N/0
D. 34.0W/7
E. SIX/MET7
F. T3.0/3.5/W1.0/24HRS -06/1731Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/ PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .70 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING DT OF 3.0. FT BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: T3.6 (CRVD BND)

CAPUTO/WEAVER

This afternoons Air Force T numbers are below hurricane strengh.

Derek Ortt · #512 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 1:14 pm

I have little confidence in the AF numbers, especially since they have had hurricanes as t 1.5/1.5 before in recent storms

#513 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 1:50 pm

HURRICANE EPSILON (AL292005) ON 20051206 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051206 1800 051207 0600 051207 1800 051208 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.6N 34.2W 30.2N 35.7W 28.3N 37.6W 25.6N 39.1W
BAMM 31.6N 34.2W 30.2N 36.1W 28.7N 38.2W 26.6N 39.7W
A98E 31.6N 34.2W 30.2N 35.5W 27.9N 36.4W 25.5N 37.8W
LBAR 31.6N 34.2W 30.4N 34.6W 29.1N 35.6W 27.6N 36.6W
SHIP 65KTS 58KTS 47KTS 35KTS
DSHP 65KTS 58KTS 47KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051208 1800 051209 1800 051210 1800 051211 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 22.5N 40.4W 17.4N 41.3W 13.8N 41.9W 11.6N 43.1W
BAMM 23.9N 41.2W 19.5N 44.3W 16.5N 48.4W 15.4N 54.3W
A98E 23.3N 37.5W 20.8N 34.3W 19.2N 29.5W 17.9N 25.2W
LBAR 25.6N 37.1W 22.7N 32.4W 24.5N 25.7W 27.0N 20.8W
SHIP 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.6N LONCUR = 34.2W DIRCUR = 210DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 33.1N LONM12 = 33.7W DIRM12 = 176DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 33.7N LONM24 = 34.7W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 987MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 130NM RD34NW = 130NM

Derek you were right about the Air Force being too low many times.Still a hurricane at 65kts.

#514 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 1:52 pm

18z BAMM model track.

#515 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 2:26 pm

I think the GFDL had too much Christmas spiked punch.

#516 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 2:31 pm

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #517 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 2:54 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:I have little confidence in the AF numbers, especially since they have had hurricanes as t 1.5/1.5 before in recent storms

It normally depends on the forecaster. A few of the forecasters producing those numbers have a lot of experience and are really good. On the flip side, there are so amatures that have little experience and/or aren't very interested in tropical cyclones.

caribepr · #518 Postby **caribepr** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 3:27 pm

cycloneye wrote:

18z BAMM model track.

Bam the BAMM!

Dr. Jonah Rainwater · #519 Postby **Dr. Jonah Rainwater** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 4:08 pm

Where's the LBAR when you need it?

#520 Postby **cjrciadt** » Tue Dec 06, 2005 4:12 pm

Here it is

Epsilon,Final Comments,Sat Pics

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