Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[Evil Jeremy]

Nasty gusts here today in Coconut Creek. All of the wind is reminding me of my hevan, which is the calm before the storm.

Invest should be up any second now.

[cycloneye]

Below is from Dr Jeff Masters Monday update in his blog:

Heavy thunderstorms are firing up over South Florida and the nearby waters, thanks to an upper-level low pressure system interacting with an old front. Long range radar out of Miami shows that this activity is disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed some rotation in the surface winds over the Central Bahamas, but with wind shear 20-30 knots over the region, no development is likely today. Most of the computer models forecast that wind shear will fall, and a tropical or subtropical depression will form by Wednesday near the Florida Keys, eastern Gulf of Mexico, or western Cuba. There is a strong upper-level low pressure system just southwest of Florida (Figure 1), and water vapor satellite loops show that this low is pulling plenty of dry, continental air from North America southward over the Gulf of Mexico. The upper low is expected to move southwestward. This is a situation very similar to the one that spawned Subtropical Depression Ten in September, off the Gulf Coast of Florida. In that case, the subtropical depression formed right underneath the upper level low, making for a very slow transition phase to a tropical system. It took two days for Subtropical Depression Ten to become Tropical Depression Ten, and the storm ran out of time to intensify into a tropical storm before moving ashore over the Florida Panhandle. This time, the GFS model is supporting formation of a subtropical depression to the northeast of the upper low. This situation would potentially allow a faster conversion of the subtropical storm to a tropical storm. The UKMET and Canadian model predict that a fully tropical storm will form, instead. I think a subtropical storm is more likely.

Any storm that forms is forecast to move west-northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico, pushed by a strong ridge of high pressure expected to build in. An upper-level anticyclone aloft is expected to develop as well, providing an environment favorable for intensification. However, intensification will be slowed by the presence of all the dry air dragged into the Gulf of Mexico by the upper low, and by the transition of the storm from subtropical to tropical. The models project a landfall in Texas or Louisiana on Friday or Saturday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into this system Tuesday afternoon, if necessary.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nasty gusts here today in Coconut Creek. All of the wind is reminding me of my hevan, which is the calm before the storm.

Invest should be up any second now.

I don't know where they'd aim it. Biggest t-storms well East of where something is supposed to form, and as seen on Florida visible loop, while there is a wind shift line, I guess the old front, there doesn't seem to be a closed low pressure, at least as best as I can tell.

[HURAKAN]

So far 3.30 inches of rain and more is in the horizon.

[jlauderdal]

Here in Boca Raton the sun has ben out for 45 minutes with a strong NE wind at 20mph. Although on radar rain is over the Atlantic heading west, its dissipatted before making it onshore. The miami radar is down again, so I'm using Melbourne.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... B&loop=yes

bookamrk nbc 6 radar, beleive me you will use it alot based on the past performance of the nws radar.


http://wtvj.weatherplus.com/wxplocal/index.html

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[BigA]

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I don't know where they'd aim it. Biggest t-storms well East of where something is supposed to form, and as seen on Florida visible loop, while there is a wind shift line, I guess the old front, there doesn't seem to be a closed low pressure, at least as best as I can tell.

Probably not worth too much, but that loop shows a little swirl hauling westward toward the convection east of Florida.

[Ed Mahmoud]

.
I don't know where they'd aim it. Biggest t-storms well East of where something is supposed to form, and as seen on Florida visible loop, while there is a wind shift line, I guess the old front, there doesn't seem to be a closed low pressure, at least as best as I can tell.

Probably not worth too much, but that loop shows a little swirl hauling westward toward the convection east of Florida.

Just North of the tip of that bigger island (Bahamas geographical knowledge a little light)?

[cycloneye]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200710

Above is the Jeff Masters link to his blog.

[Sanibel]

You have to calculate 2007 conditions when considering swirls etc that you think will spark-off development. 2007 is hostile and normal trigger mechanisms are slightly retarded.

[MWatkins]

Phhht! Long range radar our of Miami...like the NWS radar works when it's raining anywhere near Miami.

The only thing I have seen on that radar today...is a cloud formation that has arranged itself into a phrase...

"Radar Image Not Available"

Oh look there it is...an actual scan being returned...it must have stopped raining...

MW

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

For now we will not know if invest 90L is up or not for this area as the site is dead.

[boca]

Here' a backup radar site from the weather channel. Its actually pretty good.

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/inte ... ayer=radar

[boca]

Navy site is down. says software error.Their linked up with the Miami radar.

[jlauderdal]

Navy site is down. says software error.Their linked up with the Miami radar.

the 14.4k line the two offices share is flooded so no info until the rain subsides, sorry folks.

[chadtm80]

NRL is working for me

[Cyclone1]

What about that back up site that I never seem to remember to bookmark? Is that one down?

[americanrebel]

Must of just came back up.

[chadtm80]

What about that back up site that I never seem to remember to bookmark? Is that one down?

Main one is up Randy http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Cyclone1]

What about that back up site that I never seem to remember to bookmark? Is that one down?

Main one is up Randy http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Oh ok. Thanks.