ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[tolakram]

I don't think Waetherbells oiginal forecast of Modiki was motivated by anything other than best forecast available, but so far no el nino forecast, regardless of who made it, shows any skill over climatology. So we really don't know at this point.

[Alyono]

Anyone who uses the ECMWF ENSO model ought to look at its horrendous verification. I'd rather have a 3 year old with a crayon making an ENSO forecast instead of that. The 3 year old with a crayon would produce better forecasts

[gigabite]

:uarrow: In simple words what that means for El Nino prospects?

There is a small correlation between the latitude of the New Moon and El Nino. At the July New Moon phase I would expect that the tidal budge would have a easterly movement. The duration of the event will not be long enough to describe an El Nino event, but it could help build warm pools. Accelerated evaporation should enhance cloud formations that would also move East which is contrary to my understanding of El Niño, because it should be a net positive SOI for the month.

As I updated the graph of "The New Moon's Latitude vs Negative SOI" I thought I would slap a trend-line on a cluster plot of the negative SOI and I came up with this. It seems to show a decreasing probability of future El Niño or at a detachment of the two metrics.

The updated "The New Moon's Latitude vs Negative SOI" has gone from some correlation to no correlation. Again proving that a correlation does not substantiate a relationship.
The data comes from http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml

[Ntxw]

Per the indices centered last week, Nino 3.4 cooled a little more to 0.2C while 1+2 warmed up to 1.5C. 3 had no change and 4 went up a little to 0.4

[cycloneye]

Here is the text of the CPC Weekly update of 7/21/14 where Nino 3.4 is down to +0.2C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[NDG]

Wow, who would had thought Nino 3.4 would had been looking like this today July 21st by the way things were going 2-3 months ago!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Strong El Niño Cancel? Well, an El Niño bust is unlikely IMO. I wonder if this would be a repeat of the 1986-87 event. The CFSv2 model is showing a moderate El Niño extending through March or April, and a less rapid weakening and sustained event.

['CaneFreak]

That is what I am thinking as well. This is not your typical classical El Nino by any means. There are a lot of folks that have been fooled by this cooling trend in Nino 3.4 but I think that the warming trend will be back soon as evidenced by the current subsurface warming in the Western Pacific. I guess we should be clear though and say that an El Nino is not a complete deal breaker for Atlantic Basin TC fans but an early end to the Atlantic hurricane season is possible this year depending on how quickly the atmosphere responds to the changes in the ocean.

Strong El Niño Cancel? Well, an El Niño bust is unlikely IMO. I wonder if this would be a repeat of the 1986-87 event. The CFSv2 model is showing a moderate El Niño extending through March or April, and a less rapid weakening and sustained event.

[Ntxw]

That is what I am thinking as well. This is not your typical classical El Nino by any means. There are a lot of folks that have been fooled by this cooling trend in Nino 3.4 but I think that the warming trend will be back soon as evidenced by the current subsurface warming in the Western Pacific. I guess we should be clear though and say that an El Nino is not a complete deal breaker for Atlantic Basin TC fans but an early end to the Atlantic hurricane season is possible this year depending on how quickly the atmosphere responds to the changes in the ocean.

Whatever happens also has repercussion for next year as well. If there is no El Nino, there won't likely be a La Nina. Especially if you are looking for something to change the Atlantic background state. If it is a weak Nino the odds become greater we stick to neutral again next year. Something needs to counter the balance. We haven't had a La Nina or El Nino since 2011. Neutrals don't go to La Nina, only another neutral or El Nino. La Nina's follow El Nino's or other Nina's. The bigger the Nino tends to produce later on bigger Nina's.

Source:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

[WeatherEmperor]

That is what I am thinking as well. This is not your typical classical El Nino by any means. There are a lot of folks that have been fooled by this cooling trend in Nino 3.4 but I think that the warming trend will be back soon as evidenced by the current subsurface warming in the Western Pacific. I guess we should be clear though and say that an El Nino is not a complete deal breaker for Atlantic Basin TC fans but an early end to the Atlantic hurricane season is possible this year depending on how quickly the atmosphere responds to the changes in the ocean.

Strong El Niño Cancel? Well, an El Niño bust is unlikely IMO. I wonder if this would be a repeat of the 1986-87 event. The CFSv2 model is showing a moderate El Niño extending through March or April, and a less rapid weakening and sustained event.

This is a good point because if el nino does form this year it might not be fully established during the peak of the atlantic season. It may establish toward the end near end sept or early oct which could mean an early end to the season. I just have a hard time seeing it fully established during late aug and early sept

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[Yellow Evan]

That is what I am thinking as well. This is not your typical classical El Nino by any means. There are a lot of folks that have been fooled by this cooling trend in Nino 3.4 but I think that the warming trend will be back soon as evidenced by the current subsurface warming in the Western Pacific. I guess we should be clear though and say that an El Nino is not a complete deal breaker for Atlantic Basin TC fans but an early end to the Atlantic hurricane season is possible this year depending on how quickly the atmosphere responds to the changes in the ocean.

Strong El Niño Cancel? Well, an El Niño bust is unlikely IMO. I wonder if this would be a repeat of the 1986-87 event. The CFSv2 model is showing a moderate El Niño extending through March or April, and a less rapid weakening and sustained event.

This is a good point because if el nino does form this year it might not be fully established during the peak of the atlantic season. It may establish toward the end near end sept or early oct which could mean an early end to the season. I just have a hard time seeing it fully established during late aug and early sept

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

El Ninos are usually never peak until NHEM winter.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I think we will get a moderate strength, most models show it. I think it might be a long-lasting event which starts and ends late. Like, for example the 1986-88 event; but I am not saying that it would happen. You are open to disagree or comment.

['CaneFreak]

That pocket of 1 degree Celsius above normal water in the West Pacific at approximately 150-200 meters in depth is looking more and more like the begins of yet another downwelling phase of the Kelvin Wave. We shall see.

[euro6208]

I do think a moderate el nino is still likely. The cooling right now is very normal for a developing el nino with an upwelling phrase (Cooler waters) but don't worry, a new downwelling phrase (Warmer waters) is likely starting right now with warming happening in the WPAC that should move east as shown in the graphics above. Thermocline is deepening...

[LarryWx]

The volatility showing up on the Levi Cowan satellite based Nino 3.4 SST anomaly graph continues as it has dropped all of the way down to -0.217 as of 6Z today:


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[South Texas Storms]

The volatility showing up on the Levi Cowan satellite based Nino 3.4 SST anomaly graph continues as it has dropped all of the way down to -0.217 as of 6Z today:


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

What are your thoughts on the SOI forecast through early August? I really enjoy your analysis on it based on the Euro forecast as it's usually pretty accurate.

[Hammy]

Something interesting I noticed with the upwelling chart, it seems to go in five month cycles, with each phase being stronger than the last, and if the trend continues it would be ~October when we're in a full El Nino (which I think a few others have pointed out as being the most likely scenario over the last few months with other data.)

[gigabite]

That pocket of 1 degree Celsius above normal water in the West Pacific at approximately 150-200 meters in depth is looking more and more like the begins of yet another downwelling phase of the Kelvin Wave. We shall see.

I thought that Kelvin Waves were akin to Outbound Long Wave Radiation. Please enlighten me!!!

[gigabite]

Evidently El Niño amplitude varies. I think that maybe the ESNO phenomena is recycling. It might be 4 years or more of neutral.
https://www.vsp.ucar.edu/cgc/20thCelebr ... tavas-.pdf

[Ntxw]

Evidently El Niño amplitude varies. I think that maybe the ESNO phenomena is recycling. It might be 4 years or more of neutral.
https://www.vsp.ucar.edu/cgc/20thCelebr ... tavas-.pdf

I think 4 years more is a little too much. It would be an unprecedented gap that's never seen before between ENSO events nonetheless El Nino. The earth has to release the heat energy eventually from the ocean, it's a constant push for balance an example would be in my earlier post about some of the strongest, longest Nina's are immediately after the big Nino's. If it does not happen this year (though I still believe we will get the Nino) it will within the next 2.