ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[CaliforniaResident]

Looks like region 1+2 is taking a nosedive to join the other regions that are all below nino threshold at this time.
Although we are having El Ninoish conditions in Southern California right now, I think this whole thing is going to fade to neutral by October, possibly even earlier.

https://imageshack.com/i/iqwMvkj6j

[Yellow Evan]

:froze: Looks like region 1+2 is taking a nosedive to join the other regions that are all below nino threshold at this time.
Although we are having El Ninoish conditions in Southern California right now, I think this whole thing is going to fade to neutral by October, possibly even earlier.

https://imageshack.com/i/iqwMvkj6j

We have a new subsurface pool near the dateline though. There's still hope.

[euro6208]

I don't know if this is related to el nino but a big 38 foot whale has washed up ashore on Guam...

i googled it and there seem to be some connection...

Any thoughts?

[Ntxw]

2C+ is now appearing at the new pool. As mentioned before this is where 2012 failed in Aug/Sept as it never developed a secondary pool to finish the job. As for tomorrow's update 1+2 has felt significant cooling as expected. Whether chicken or egg the WPAC and CPAC activity likely is not a coincidence with the OKW showing up.

[Yellow Evan]

Any chance Nino 3.4 goes back to positive?

[Ntxw]

Any chance Nino 3.4 goes back to positive?

If it does probably not much for tomorrow's update because last week the cool anomalies shrunk a little but not by much. It may next week.

[gigabite]

:uarrow: In simple words what that means for El Nino prospects?

There is a small correlation between the latitude of the New Moon and El Nino. At the July New Moon phase I would expect that the tidal budge would have a easterly movement. The duration of the event will not be long enough to describe an El Nino event, but it could help build warm pools. Accelerated evaporation should enhance cloud formations that would also move East which is contrary to my understanding of El Niño, because it should be a net positive SOI for the month.

I figure a 1.2 % increase in global water vapor from when the new moon was over the Sahara to when it was over the Western Pacific.

[NDG]

Nino 3.4 staying negative for today's update, Nino 3 & Nino 1+2 continued to drop.

['CaneFreak]

Yeah. Now if we can just get a SUSTAINED westerly wind burst to occur in conjunction with this latest downwelling OKW...

2C+ is now appearing at the new pool. As mentioned before this is where 2012 failed in Aug/Sept as it never developed a secondary pool to finish the job. As for tomorrow's update 1+2 has felt significant cooling as expected. Whether chicken or egg the WPAC and CPAC activity likely is not a coincidence with the OKW showing up.

[Ntxw]

There isn't any signal (atm) of lasting westerly winds. We do have some raw west winds near the dateline. But what I do see that is different is wpac and maritime winds changing rather differently to trades vs the warm winds we have seen there for months. Cooler SST's will likely show up in that region.

[cycloneye]

Here is the text of the CPC 8/4/14 update that has Nino 3.4 with the same data as last weeks update at -0.1C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[weatherdude1108]

El Nino bust?
If so, terrible news for California and Texas, who need a major "water break thirst quenching." I am in Texas. These busts are getting old. I don't know what or who to believe anymore.

['CaneFreak]

I just looked at the GFS out to 14 days and the pressure patterns in the WPAC are indeed very volatile. If we get an El Nino to form this year, it is likely to be weak.

:uarrow: There isn't any signal (atm) of lasting westerly winds. We do have some raw west winds near the dateline. But what I do see that is different is wpac and maritime winds changing rather differently to trades vs the warm winds we have seen there for months. Cooler SST's will likely show up in that region.

[cycloneye]

You can see the big change on the sub-surface waters as from late Febuary thru late April a very large warm pool dominated the Equatorial Pacific. After that period,from early May thru late July that pool began to shrink to what is now and that is almost nothing left. What we have to watch is the growing warm pool in the WestCentral Pacific to see if it turns strong as the one before.

Late Febuary thru late April



Early May thru late July

[euro6208]

Back to square one...

Large warm pool underneath the West Pacific and moving east with potential for el nino...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

A moderate El Niño or even strong is likely, as there is sustained warming and enlargement of the warm pool over the Central Pacific. The enhanced typhoon activity over the WPAC AND CPAC can enhance a WWB.

[Ntxw]

Central Pacific regions have probably peaked their cooling for the time being and are warming up compared to the previous 2 weeks.

Below the surface the new Oceanic Kelvin wave induced pool out west is improving with 2-3C appearing. Intra-seasonal variability part 2, CFSv2 has done a decent job. We know it's going to push east eventually as they all do and will determine the fate for second half.

[NDG]

Modoki? IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: Modoki? IMO.

How does that resemble a Modoki?

[NDG]

:uarrow: Modoki? IMO.

How does that resemble a Modoki?

Just looking ahead. Cool subsurface pool heading towards Niño 1+2 while Niño 3.4 & 4 start warming up.
Now that the SOI seems to finally stay negative we should see the central Pacific maintain some warmth, IMO.