Wave WSW of CV Islands

[cycloneye]

We were just informed that my husbands ex-wife was diagnosed with stage four pancreatic cancer.

Please keep those fingers crossed.

Sorry to hear that. My prayers go to her. Lets continue to discuss about the topic.

[TwisterFanatic]

[blp]

Greatest Vorticity is more north at 10. It looks like that flareup is mostly ITCZ induced. As others have stated this area is going to take its sweet time getting going.

[caribepr]

Watching from Maine...

Wow, very far from your Culebra paradise Mj. Lets see what happens with this.

Yes, Luis, about 3000 miles or so Once again grateful for S2K, so I can know what's going on

[MandiAltman]

About to sign off! Do y'all think this will be an invest when I get up in the morning?

G'night y'all!!

[lester]

How this is not invested yet i'll never understand..

[funster]

Lots of convection there. I guess that's why the blob is so big. Maybe we will get an invest on Monday, after the weekend.

[cycloneye]

00z surface analysis.

[blp]

This should help our system. I guess its not so bad after all.

[Recurve]

GFS is showing caribbean wave hitting Central America as a hurricane and the central Atlantic wave becoming a strong hurricane, clipping the northern antilles and making it to east of the Bahamas as a strong hurricane.

[MGC]

I don't see any cyclonic banding yet.....just looks like a bunch of thunderstorms in the ITCZ....I think 40% is rather generous......MGC

[hurricaneCW]

I don't see any cyclonic banding yet.....just looks like a bunch of thunderstorms in the ITCZ....I think 40% is rather generous......MGC

That may be true, but the coverage and the very cold cloud tops -80C, indicate something more than just a bunch of thunderstorms in the ITCZ. I think 40% is just fine.

[boca]

I don't see any cyclonic banding yet.....just looks like a bunch of thunderstorms in the ITCZ....I think 40% is rather generous......MGC

I agree with you MGC its still part of the ITCZ and until it can separate itelf from the ITCZ it won't develop. It has to gain latitude.

[Recurve]

I could go either way. See your point MGC. ITCZ is active but this isn't anything yet.

Some of the models are bullish if they can be believed for development, showing a strong storm riding up past the Lesser Antilles to east of the Bahamas. I'm concerned about a strong ridge bridging at that point. It would be nice to track a monster that misses the islands, misses the Bahamas and finds a weakness to recurve into.

[gatorcane]

00Z GFS running....operational GFS initializes a 1009MB low at around 10N on the northern side of the huge blob...

[boca]

I could go either way. See your point MGC. ITCZ is active but this isn't anything yet.

Some of the models are bullish if they can be believed for development, showing a strong storm riding up past the Lesser Antilles to east of the Bahamas. I'm concerned about a strong ridge bridging at that point. It would be nice to track a monster that misses the islands, misses the Bahamas and finds a weakness to recurve into.

Do the models show strong ridging at that point or is their a break between 2 high pressure areas by the bahamas?

[Riptide]

I don't see any cyclonic banding yet.....just looks like a bunch of thunderstorms in the ITCZ....I think 40% is rather generous......MGC

There is still a surface trough and low pressure to the NW of the main convection, you can see it spinning and organizing in the black/white IR loop. It is now almost completely immersed under the convection and probably rapidly organizing. There wouldn't a be a low on the surface map without a reason. It is still trying to break away from the ITCZ though.

[gatorcane]

I could go either way. See your point MGC. ITCZ is active but this isn't anything yet.

Some of the models are bullish if they can be believed for development, showing a strong storm riding up past the Lesser Antilles to east of the Bahamas. I'm concerned about a strong ridge bridging at that point. It would be nice to track a monster that misses the islands, misses the Bahamas and finds a weakness to recurve into.

Do the models show strong ridging at that point or is their a break between 2 high pressure areas by the bahamas?

ECMWF and GFS show strong ridging -- granted its over 7 days from now though...

[boca]

The 00GFS models runs are just coming out about now. At 12 hrs so far.

[gatorcane]

The 00GFS models runs are just coming out about now. At 12 hrs so far.

The 18Z was quite a scary run Boca for those in the Leewards, Bahamas, and Southern FL, let's see if it is similar or alot different. The 00Z has more data than the 18Z.