Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[SFLcane]

Michael Ventrice
@MJVentrice

Latest ECMWF seasonal up to 9 hurricanes from July-Dec. That would bring totals up to 10 for the season when including Alex.

57 how are we looking in terms of high pressures across the Basin? Total of 10 hurricanes? Um yea That's not a slow year by any means. We're are all these hurricanes gonna form close to home if CFS is right the Atlantic looks prime for an active CV wave train as we head into July.

[cycloneye]

Michael Ventrice
@MJVentrice

Latest ECMWF seasonal up to 9 hurricanes from July-Dec. That would bring totals up to 10 for the season when including Alex.

He also said this about MDR.Mainly homegrown stuff it seems.


Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice · 24m24 minutes ago

It suggests a below average year for MDR, or Cape Verde type systems.

[cycloneye]

One more tweet in response from Phil Klotzbach to Michael Ventrice.

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach · 1m1 minute ago 

@MJVentrice Now if we start getting MDR storms in July, there's a signal that we can use!

[wxman57]

New ECMWF seasonal forecast is in. Between June-November, it's going with 11.5 named storms, 8.9 hurricanes, but ACE only 90% of normal. Predicted sea-level pressures across the tropics from August-October are higher-than-normal, but not nearly as high as the May forecast. Rainfall normal across the tropics. Our new analog seasons indicate a more active season, with ACE averaging about 160.

[SFLcane]

New ECMWF seasonal forecast is in. Between June-November, it's going with 11.5 named storms, 8.9 hurricanes, but ACE only 90% of normal. Predicted sea-level pressures across the tropics from August-October are higher-than-normal, but not nearly as high as the May forecast. Rainfall normal across the tropics. Our new analog seasons indicate a more active season, with ACE averaging about 160.

57 can u elaborate about your analogs? So your not buying into the ECMWF? Curious as to your thoughts about the season in particular the western part since the ECMWF thinks there won't much of a cv season.

[RL3AO]

New ECMWF seasonal forecast is in. Between June-November, it's going with 11.5 named storms, 8.9 hurricanes, but ACE only 90% of normal. Predicted sea-level pressures across the tropics from August-October are higher-than-normal, but not nearly as high as the May forecast. Rainfall normal across the tropics. Our new analog seasons indicate a more active season, with ACE averaging about 160.

Everything seems to make sense except the # of hurricanes. Its showing above average SLP, normal ace values, below average MDR activity, yet has 10 hurricanes for a season? Something seems off.

[wxman57]

New ECMWF seasonal forecast is in. Between June-November, it's going with 11.5 named storms, 8.9 hurricanes, but ACE only 90% of normal. Predicted sea-level pressures across the tropics from August-October are higher-than-normal, but not nearly as high as the May forecast. Rainfall normal across the tropics. Our new analog seasons indicate a more active season, with ACE averaging about 160.

57 can u elaborate about your analogs? So your not buying into the ECMWF? Curious as to your thoughts about the season in particular the western part since the ECMWF thinks there won't much of a cv season.

A forecast of 9 hurricanes but an ACE of only 90 (104 is normal for a season) would suggest that the hurricanes are short-track, perhaps forming closer to land. The forecast of 10.5 additional named storms with 8.9 of them hurricanes does seem a bit odd. I'm thinking something like 15/8/4 (maybe 16) for the season. Watch for western Caribbean/Gulf development this season. One of our analogs is 1955, in which the NC coast was hit by 3 hurricanes.

[Hurricaneman]

1955 is a pretty good analog as is 1985, 1998

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[OuterBanker]

New ECMWF seasonal forecast is in. Between June-November, it's going with 11.5 named storms, 8.9 hurricanes, but ACE only 90% of normal. Predicted sea-level pressures across the tropics from August-October are higher-than-normal, but not nearly as high as the May forecast. Rainfall normal across the tropics. Our new analog seasons indicate a more active season, with ACE averaging about 160.

57 can u elaborate about your analogs? So your not buying into the ECMWF? Curious as to your thoughts about the season in particular the western part since the ECMWF thinks there won't much of a cv season.

A forecast of 9 hurricanes but an ACE of only 90 (104 is normal for a season) would suggest that the hurricanes are short-track, perhaps forming closer to land. The forecast of 10.5 additional named storms with 8.9 of them hurricanes does seem a bit odd. I'm thinking something like 15/8/4 (maybe 16) for the season. Watch for western Caribbean/Gulf development this season. One of our analogs is 1955, in which the NC coast was hit by 3 hurricanes.

It never ceases to amaze me how the public is fixated on the numbers game. Potential landfall is far more important. Which would be worse? Thirty hurricanes and an ace of 300 and no landfalls, or 3 hurricanes with an ace of 50 and a land falling cat 5.

[Yellow Evan]

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/corre ... on.us.data

AMO bouncing back. ATL seems to be returning to its old self.

[thundercam96]

What effect does this have?

[Hurricaneman]

:uarrow: What effect does this have?

potential for a stronger season and it seems like a bit of a positive tripole might be coming for later in the season

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data

AMO bouncing back. ATL seems to be returning to its old self.

What do you mean by old self?

[Yellow Evan]

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data

AMO bouncing back. ATL seems to be returning to its old self.

What do you mean by old self?

The last active era from 1995-2012(???), at least for this year.

[ninel conde]

New ECMWF seasonal forecast is in. Between June-November, it's going with 11.5 named storms, 8.9 hurricanes, but ACE only 90% of normal. Predicted sea-level pressures across the tropics from August-October are higher-than-normal, but not nearly as high as the May forecast. Rainfall normal across the tropics. Our new analog seasons indicate a more active season, with ACE averaging about 160.

if we have 9 hurricanes they will all have to be cat 1's to still have a below normal ACE.

[Hurricaneman]

Mark Sudduth said this year reminds him of 2005, we might be heading for a major season based on that and I didn't put 2005 as an analog because that season was so extreme but also highlighted the fact that no tropical cyclones formed east of 50W and waited until near land to do their dirty work but the differences between this year and 2005 are not all that much as both have and had warmer than normal atlantic, Positive PDO, +AMO, warmer than normal EPAC MDR but one of the differences is that the subtropics are below normal in the eastern Atlantic which would lower development there and the -NAO which would steer stuff away from the US but as said by a few the new EURO for the hurricane season might make this year quite dangerous and with its output could put the US in harms way of more than 1 major.

But as always its the opinion of 1 model and can change at the drop of a hat and to always be prepared even if no hurricane hits land better safe than sorry

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Yellow Evan]

+AMO was much stronger in 2005 than this year and I think using 2005 as an analog is a bit of a hyperbole. We don't have the best ATL SST configuration of all time, although it's the best it's been since 2012.

With that said, things definitely appear to be going the ATL's way.

[ninel conde]

1955 had alot of heat in the midwest and ne.

[Hammy]

I've been seeing quite a few fairly strong tropical waves over Africa over the last several weeks for it being so early in the season.

[cycloneye]

CFS July forecast is with high moisture for most of MDR and West Atlantic.