Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[Alyono]

Looks like the wave is located within a break in the SAL:

stepping through the 3 hour time steps, it looks like it is on the leading edge of ANOTHER SAL outbreak

Chantal 2013 may be the appropriate analog for this

I recall Chantal's main problem being its ridiculous forward motion, was that not the case?

fast forward motion is almost always caused by the storm being on the leading edge of the SAL

[blp]

Climo in that the BH would likely keep this from going out to sea. That was my reference.

Got it. I agree with that.

[ROCK]

Come on 0Z model runs!!...

[abajan]

Come on 0Z model runs!!...

Do they normally take this long? I'm getting sleepy. Gonna head to bed and check them (along with the 2 AM TWO) when I get up.

[cycloneye]

Come on 0Z model runs!!...

Do they normally take this long? I'm getting sleepy. Gonna head to bed and check them (along with the 2 AM TWO) when I get up.

GFS begins running at 11:30 PM AST.
ECMWF at 2 AM AST.

[ROCK]

GFS has started..just checking inilization looks ok...gonna take some time to get the whole run uploaded...you young whipper snappers can stay up for the Euro.. I don't do that unless GOM threat in the mid range...

[AutoPenalti]

GFS has started..just checking inilization looks ok...gonna take some time to get the whole run uploaded...you young whipper snappers can stay up for the Euro.. I don't do that unless GOM threat in the mid range...

I just napped so I'm good to go for Euro time.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z GFS closes off the low @ 36 hours.

[weathaguyry]

I'll take a nap after GFS is out and then get up to look at Euro, I even asked my boss for a double shift on Wednesday so I can stay up tonight for model runs

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'll take a nap after GFS is out and then get up to look at Euro, I even asked my boss for a double shift on Wednesday so I can stay up tonight for model runs

THAT is dedication

[ROCK]

Doesn't waste any time..boy if the Euro still doesn't have it tonight, I might have to rethink my allegiance..

[weathaguyry]

GFS is overall similar to the last run at 48hrs, maybe a TAD slower if anything

[ROCK]

I'll take a nap after GFS is out and then get up to look at Euro, I even asked my boss for a double shift on Wednesday so I can stay up tonight for model runs

THAT is dedication

I once posted model runs during church for Portastorm.. those were good ole days!!

[LarryWx]

^US Wx enthusiasts need to get together and lobby to get Congress to get rid of DST to make it easier to stay up for the Euro. Surely Congress can empathize.

[Ivanhater]

00Z gfs deepening it once again

[Siker]

Similar to the 18z through 66 hours, just a tad drier on the north side of the system.

[weathaguyry]

Same as 18z at 72hrs.

[ROCK]

At 72 needs to gain some lat..CA might come into play more than last run..

[weathaguyry]

I will not be happy if I stayed up this long just to see the GFS scrape some mess into CA, I want to see a monster Cat 5 *that goes out to sea without harming anyone*

[weathaguyry]

Ridge looks somewhat stronger at 90 hours, 1005mb low is slightly SW of 18z position