Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[Monsoonjr99]

The impression I get from reading through this thread is that of a broken record, lol. Besides the repeatedly aforementioned consolidation of one LLC, I think we should wait until after Kong-Rey's and Walaka's recurvature before the models better resolve how this system pans out.

[blp]

Here is the ensembles. Still lots of activity but it has decreased some since the last run.

[SoupBone]

I'm a shear broken record, but I have a hard time believing something will survive the massive wall of 30-50 knots of shear in its path across the Caribbean. If absolutely nothing else this season, shear in that area has been consistent. It has shear nearly all the way to the Florida coast.

[blp]

There clearly a LLC in this loop heading WSW. Getting covered up now by convection. Question now is will it crash into C. America.

https://col.st/Ma21z

[boca]

That low looks like it’s moving west that blp posted. The low could be an eddy as well.

[LarryWx]

Here is the ensembles. Still lots of activity but it has decreased some since the last run.

https://image.ibb.co/jtOHzK/us_cyclone_en_087_0_euro_2018100312_15843_481_240.png

blp, keep in mind that 4 more Hs hit FL after day 10 (days 11-13). Your map goes only thru day 10.

[boca]

Here is the ensembles. Still lots of activity but it has decreased some since the last run.

https://image.ibb.co/jtOHzK/us_cyclone_en_087_0_euro_2018100312_15843_481_240.png

blp, keep in mind that 4 more Hs hit FL after day 10 (days 11-13). Your map goes only thru day 10.

From the same area that where looking at or something else forming from Caribbean?

[LarryWx]

Here is the ensembles. Still lots of activity but it has decreased some since the last run.

https://image.ibb.co/jtOHzK/us_cyclone_en_087_0_euro_2018100312_15843_481_240.png

blp, keep in mind that 4 more Hs hit FL after day 10 (days 11-13). Your map goes only thru day 10.

From the same area that where looking at or something else forming from Caribbean?

They are of Caribbean origin and are as of day 10 in the Gulf.

[Abdullah]

What's preventing it from developing?
Shear?
From here it doesn't look like it

That was today

It looked even better yesterday.

[wxman57]

That small eddy is dissipating. There is very strong wind shear across the Caribbean at present.

[Aric Dunn]

[SFLcane]

That small eddy is dissipating. There is very strong wind shear across the Caribbean at present.

Question: so why do we even have a 30 percent probability of development on this disturbed wx?

[Hurricaneman]

Seems to be coming together nicely today right around San Andrés island but can the convection sustain

[SFLcane]

Latest TWO.. large cyclonic gyre lol. Still at 30 % with the expectation of upper level winds becoming less hostile.

[cycloneye]

A large cyclonic gyre, defined by a broad area of low pressure,
typical of this time of the year, covers a portion of Central
America and the western Caribbean Sea. This system is accompanied
by an extensive area of disorganized clouds and thunderstorms, and
although surface pressures are relatively low in the area,
upper-level winds are currently highly unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation. Environmental conditions could become less
hostile this weekend and early next week allowing some slow
development in this region as the system drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[blp]

FV3 back to showing development.

[Abdullah]

A large cyclonic gyre, defined by a broad area of low pressure,
typical of this time of the year, covers a portion of Central
America and the western Caribbean Sea. This system is accompanied
by an extensive area of disorganized clouds and thunderstorms, and
although surface pressures are relatively low in the area,
upper-level winds are currently highly unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation. Environmental conditions could become less
hostile this weekend and early next week allowing some slow
development in this region as the system drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Stating the obvious, That's up from 20% earlier this morning. Sooo

[gatorcane]

FV3 GFS brings an intensifying hurricane just north of Tampa heading NE:

[Ken711]

A large cyclonic gyre, defined by a broad area of low pressure,
typical of this time of the year, covers a portion of Central
America and the western Caribbean Sea. This system is accompanied
by an extensive area of disorganized clouds and thunderstorms, and
although surface pressures are relatively low in the area,
upper-level winds are currently highly unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation. Environmental conditions could become less
hostile this weekend and early next week allowing some slow
development in this region as the system drifts northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Stating the obvious, That's up from 20%.

Not really. That's the same 30% that was given in the 2:00 PM NHC Outlook.

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at the satellite pic it looks like the system is taking shape SE of the eddy we were following earlier