2019 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[MahFL]

Not sure what everyone is complaining about with the GFS. It has definitely cut back on the number of phantom storms from previous years. Yeah, its catching on to something moving into the gulf region but thats a week out almost.. and obviously no model is going to have the details down at this point in time.

The GFS has been terrible the last couple of weeks.

[tolakram]

Not sure what everyone is complaining about with the GFS. It has definitely cut back on the number of phantom storms from previous years. Yeah, its catching on to something moving into the gulf region but thats a week out almost.. and obviously no model is going to have the details down at this point in time.

The GFS has been terrible the last couple of weeks.

How so? Surface, 500mb, phantom storms?

500mb verification (surface is also available at the link below)

GFS: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/gfs0012loop500.html

ECMWF: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/ecmwf0012loop500.html

UKMET: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/ukmet0012loop500.html

source: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml#verification

[cycloneye]

Is only the first run showing this.

[gatorcane]

Is only the first run showing this.

https://i.imgur.com/Qwrrkry.gif

Likely a phantom as there is zero support from the ensembles.

[MahFL]

Not sure what everyone is complaining about with the GFS. It has definitely cut back on the number of phantom storms from previous years. Yeah, its catching on to something moving into the gulf region but thats a week out almost.. and obviously no model is going to have the details down at this point in time.

The GFS has been terrible the last couple of weeks.

How so? Surface, 500mb, phantom storms?...

500.

[USTropics]

Looks like the GFS operational is playing catch up with the passing CCKW in the EPAC. Back on board with a developing hurricane in as little as 4 days off of the CA coast. Not great lead time/skill in genesis if this actually comes to fruition:



That being said, this is a great opportunity to show why following the ensembles can be more beneficial to a forecast, where the GEFS has consistently shown development the past 4 runs:

[Hammy]

As the GFS continues to be completely useless with showing genesis (either showing things form that won't, or failing to show things that will) it does tend to do well with overall pattern changes, and yet again it's showing the WAM weaken and drop south as we head into September--two notable things here are that the calm area goes from fairly well defined and around 22-24N to being more sharply defined to the south, and along 18-20N--the second being the fairly significant drop in winds over northwest Africa, indicating a marked weakening. GFS will likely start showing an MDR storm at end of run by the end of the weekend given the pattern change, which lines up with where the CFS shows the bursting activity to begin (if it does in fact wait until after August.)

[USTropics]

https://i.imgur.com/NRuwhGk.png
https://i.imgur.com/kmckKhA.png

As the GFS continues to be completely useless with showing genesis (either showing things form that won't, or failing to show things that will) it does tend to do well with overall pattern changes, and yet again it's showing the WAM weaken and drop south as we head into September--two notable things here are that the calm area goes from fairly well defined and around 22-24N to being more sharply defined to the south, and along 18-20N--the second being the fairly significant drop in winds over northwest Africa, indicating a marked weakening. GFS will likely start showing an MDR storm at end of run by the end of the weekend given the pattern change, which lines up with where the CFS shows the bursting activity to begin (if it does in fact wait until after August.)

The transitional phase (July/August) is about 3 weeks delayed this year, but seeing the signs of a shift equatorward. A transition from coastal rainfall to more inland/Sahel rainfall coincides with this as well.

[Blown Away]

GFS long range now into September and shows nothing but a few lows over the Central Atlantic... Wow

[Hurricaneman]

If anything it looks like the Euro tries to form something in the MDR between day 9 and 10 but it depends on if the MJO is favorable or not but based on models it should be favorable and could show stronger development in future runs

[gatorcane]

Euro with a broad low over the far eastern Atlantic near the Cape Verde islands. It is now the time of year to start watching for development in that area especially as these lows could find more favorable conditions further west in the area north of the Antilles as the SAL and shear subside:

[CyclonicFury]

The 12z EPS has a few members showing some activity in the MDR next week. Sooner or later one of these waves is going to develop.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1162548091607797766

[NotSparta]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1162548091607797766

I wonder what happened to the ensembles

[Hammy]

GFS starting to develop tropical storms inland over Africa and shooting them NW off of Morocco, which usually is the first indication the model is picking up more favorable conditions

[Hurricaneman]

GFS starting to develop tropical storms inland over Africa and shooting them NW off of Morocco, which usually is the first indication the model is picking up more favorable conditions

Id say by the Monday at even mid week runs it will show a good bit of activity

[crownweather]

EPS model starts waking up the tropics during the last week of this month. Here is the spaghettio chart for 2 weeks from today.

[gatorcane]

Today’s 12Z GFS with zilch for two weeks. We will see if the happy hour run later brings something. Even if is is some phantom storm, would be something to talk about at least! #crickets

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF has anything notable thru the 27th.

[NDG]

12z Euro brings back development fom the area of disturbance moving into the GOM currently over the south central Caribbean.