2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[AutoPenalti]

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/S7x7Qqv.gif

Interesting... Little ITCZ disturbance aided by the CCKW. It'll be dead in a day

[Category5Kaiju]

Great informative video of potential steering this season. Florida

https://youtu.be/fiskrbHUuxc

https://i.postimg.cc/brXmwt4m/20177-Sept-Irma-79.png
https://i.postimg.cc/43S8jMPk/20177-Sept-Irma-82.jpg
As far as steering is concerned, based on the possible location and track of soon-to-be STS Ana, perhaps this season will be a blend of 1999 and 2017. The mean of Floyd (1999) and Irma (2017) would place storms curving into Southeast Florida, similarly to the early model runs that took Irma into Miami. The somewhat reliable EC suggests a reduced frequency of ≥ 45-kt wind gusts from North Carolina to New England during the peak trimonthly period of ASO, so perhaps it is hinting at a blocking ridge over the Mid-Atlantic that acts to keep storms confined farther south, suggesting more of a threat to peninsular Florida vs. points east (Outer Banks) and west (Gulf).

Blending 1999 and 2017 wouldn't be too far off from the ECMWF C3S forecast posted earlier for ASO. I worry for the Bahamas this season especially. Tracks over the Bahamas or so close to SE FL could result in OBX brushes too, though there weren't any in 2017.

I really hope Grand Abaco and Freeport don't get hit by a strong hurricane this year, Dorian was horrible enough.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1395403943841251329

[Shell Mound]

Great informative video of potential steering this season. Florida

https://youtu.be/fiskrbHUuxc

https://i.postimg.cc/brXmwt4m/20177-Sept-Irma-79.png
https://i.postimg.cc/43S8jMPk/20177-Sept-Irma-82.jpg
As far as steering is concerned, based on the possible location and track of soon-to-be STS Ana, perhaps this season will be a blend of 1999 and 2017. The mean of Floyd (1999) and Irma (2017) would place storms curving into Southeast Florida, similarly to the early model runs that took Irma into Miami. The somewhat reliable EC suggests a reduced frequency of ≥ 45-kt wind gusts from North Carolina to New England during the peak trimonthly period of ASO, so perhaps it is hinting at a blocking ridge over the Mid-Atlantic that acts to keep storms confined farther south, suggesting more of a threat to peninsular Florida vs. points east (Outer Banks) and west (Gulf).

Blending 1999 and 2017 wouldn't be too far off from the ECMWF C3S forecast posted earlier for ASO. I worry for the Bahamas this season especially. Tracks over the Bahamas or so close to SE FL could result in OBX brushes too, though there weren't any in 2017.

Wind and precipitation patterns relative to expected conditions suggest that the EC and the NMME are in rather decent agreement on ASO.

[cycloneye]

At this rate 2021 may reach 30.

[aspen]

At this rate 2021 may reach 30.

If we have Ana and Bill active at the same time tomorrow or Saturday...yeah that’s a possibility lol.

I’m interested to see if the potentially favorable CAG setup for mid to late June could produce something moderately significant, like at least a moderate TS, maybe even a hurricane. June hurricanes certainly aren’t impossible, and this part of the Caribbean has the highest SSTs in the basin this early in the season.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Ah, yes, May...

[SconnieCane]

I'm just hoping whatever's in the Gulf landfalls/dissipates quickly so it doesn't muck up moisture return for any potential land-based severe weather setups next week. May (in theory) is to tornadoes what September is to Atlantic hurricanes, and so far this one has been awfully quiet.

[JetFuel_SE]

I'm just hoping whatever's in the Gulf landfalls/dissipates quickly so it doesn't muck up moisture return for any potential land-based severe weather setups next week. May (in theory) is to tornadoes what September is to Atlantic hurricanes, and so far this one has been awfully quiet.

I'd much rather have a TD or weak TS hit Texas instead. A severe weather outbreak will likely do much more damage than a weak TS.

[aspen]

The fact that we’re watching two simultaneous invests with LLCs on the verge of becoming S/TCs in late May during an unfavorable MJO phase is really saying something. Looks like the Atlantic base state is favorable like last year. I’m still not expecting over 20 storms this season, but if this is a sign of things to come, we’re gonna be in for a looooong ride...

[cycloneye]

This is very interesting about how a strong West African Monsoon affects ENSO.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1395908201489473539

[Shell Mound]

Say goodbye to your cool MDR per the CFS the switch is about to Flip. I do not have a weatherbell account to view the CFS daily but i was able to grab a screen shot of June26 via youtube. Check out those anomalies off the african coast! There is a hole there its do to the way its display but if it weren't there i'd bet you would have yourself an above average basin.

This is June 26th... we shall see in a few weeks if it verifies.

https://i.imgur.com/X4V4jzk.png

So far SST in the MDR have remained steady over the past week and a half, despite prolonged laxity of trades, so this forecast is likely to bust significantly.

As an aside, Ana’s track has been/is very similar to Arlene’s (1999). If so, I’m expecting more of a threat to the Carolinas than South Florida during ASO.

[toad strangler]

Say goodbye to your cool MDR per the CFS the switch is about to Flip. I do not have a weatherbell account to view the CFS daily but i was able to grab a screen shot of June26 via youtube. Check out those anomalies off the african coast! There is a hole there its do to the way its display but if it weren't there i'd bet you would have yourself an above average basin.

This is June 26th... we shall see in a few weeks if it verifies.

https://i.imgur.com/X4V4jzk.png

So far SST in the MDR have remained steady over the past week and a half, despite prolonged laxity of trades, so this forecast is likely to bust significantly.

As an aside, Ana’s track has been/is very similar to Arlene’s (1999). If so, I’m expecting more of a threat to the Carolinas than South Florida during ASO.

Remember last year when you had Laura re-curving E of FL a few days out? She landfalled in LA narrowly missing a E TX landfall. Future tracks post 72 hours and many times less than that are the great unknown along with intensity forecasts. I for one wouldn't ever hang my ASO hat on what a current season early storm does in comparison to a individual storm from a analog year. Analogs are for comparing background states and individual basin indicators. Not tracks IMO. Now, the SST watch is a viable one if you are searching that hard but it's not even June 1 yet. Too early to bang that drum loud as the SAL hand wringers learned last year.

[Category5Kaiju]

This is very interesting about how a strong West African Monsoon affects ENSO.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1395908201489473539

Oh my gosh, I have been theorizing something similar to this for a while. I would be very curious to see if a strong WAM occurs next year as aside from that there are potential signs that an El Niño could occur next year

[SFLcane]

subtropical warmth heading southward into the main development region. Give it a few weeks

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1396203684497854469

[cycloneye]

subtropical warmth heading southward into the main development region. Give it a few weeks

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1 ... 4497854469

Interesting that shift but time will tell the real story.

[St0rmTh0r]

I seen on the news there was a big solar flare this week that could cause communication problems. In 2017 before Irma there was heavy solar activity. Is there a correlation between solar storms and hurricanes?

[Category5Kaiju]

I seen on the news there was a big solar flare this week that could cause communication problems. In 2017 before Irma there was heavy solar activity. Is there a correlation between solar storms and hurricanes?

I highly doubt it. If stronger solar flares are somewhat correlated with stronger hurricanes, then was there heavy solar flare activity before storms like Gilbert, Katrina, Dorian, Ivan, Andrew, or Mitch? I would love to know

[MetroMike]

I seen on the news there was a big solar flare this week that could cause communication problems. In 2017 before Irma there was heavy solar activity. Is there a correlation between solar storms and hurricanes?

Was wondering the same thing. I remember maybe it was Joe Bastardi taking about low solar flare activity and lack of activity in the tropics several years ago in a video. Could be some correlation. We shall see if this active solar trend continues this year.