TD#9

[cycloneye]

06/2345 UTC 18.8N 43.8W T1.0/1.0 09 -- Atlantic Ocean


The position from SSD Dvorak is south of the 5 PM Advisorie which was 19.0n.

[cinlfla]

The position from SSD Dvorak is south of the 5 PM Advisorie which was 19.0n.

Thank You for posting, I know others have noticed but I thought for sure I was loosing my mind...... Looking at to many satellites lately.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I truly don't know where the NHC got thier reasoning? Evey model I lookout is W to WNW wit hone nasty ridge building all the way into the gulf...Take a gander...At all the 12Z's

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

Gee, I guess you should teach the NHC how to interpret forecast models... they seem to think otherwise. From the 5 PM discussion:

MODEL GUIDANCE IS PERHAPS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON ON A TRACK THAT ULTIMATELY BENDS TO THE RIGHT THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HARVEY. THE 12Z GFS NOW AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO.

For a different look at the track guidance offered by the models, here are the global/late 12Zs

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /late1.png

and the limited area/early 18Zs

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

And how is this a consensus to a N turn?

[Ivanhater]

this can have huge impacts on the track

[clfenwi]

I truly don't know where the NHC got thier reasoning? Evey model I lookout is W to WNW wit hone nasty ridge building all the way into the gulf...Take a gander...At all the 12Z's

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

Gee, I guess you should teach the NHC how to interpret forecast models... they seem to think otherwise. From the 5 PM discussion:

MODEL GUIDANCE IS PERHAPS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON ON A TRACK THAT ULTIMATELY BENDS TO THE RIGHT THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HARVEY. THE 12Z GFS NOW AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO.

For a different look at the track guidance offered by the models, here are the global/late 12Zs

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... /late1.png

and the limited area/early 18Zs

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

And how is this a consensus to a N turn?

In those graphics, CONU is a consensus of at least two of the five (GFDI, AVNI, NGPI, UKMI, and GFNI). In the late 12Z graphic, the CONU clearly shows a turn to the north. (I don't understand the CONU in the 18Z graphic... none of the models that form it are to the left of it).

The point I was getting at was that the 12Z models aren't showing what you think they are. The GFS, for example, kills off the low and then moves the remnants northward along 60° West (18Z shows a similar scenario :
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation )

[Sanibel]

A diagonal wedge of High pressure could be between Harvey and TD9. If TD9 tracks WSW you'll know there is.

It could be very close to TS right now.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (AL092005) ON 20050807 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050807 0000 050807 1200 050808 0000 050808 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.8N 43.8W 19.0N 44.9W 19.2N 46.0W 19.5N 47.3W
BAMM 18.8N 43.8W 19.3N 45.5W 19.8N 47.0W 20.2N 48.5W
A98E 18.8N 43.8W 18.5N 45.9W 18.7N 47.8W 19.4N 49.3W
LBAR 18.8N 43.8W 19.1N 45.7W 19.6N 47.9W 20.2N 50.3W
SHIP 30KTS 29KTS 29KTS 30KTS
DSHP 30KTS 29KTS 29KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050809 0000 050810 0000 050811 0000 050812 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.0N 48.6W 21.4N 51.9W 23.9N 56.3W 26.6N 60.0W
BAMM 20.5N 50.0W 21.5N 53.2W 23.2N 57.1W 24.9N 60.7W
A98E 20.4N 50.9W 22.5N 54.1W 25.4N 57.2W 29.5N 58.5W
LBAR 20.9N 52.7W 22.5N 57.2W 24.9N 61.6W 28.2N 64.1W
SHIP 32KTS 39KTS 46KTS 50KTS
DSHP 32KTS 39KTS 46KTS 50KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.8N LONCUR = 43.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 18.1N LONM12 = 41.2W DIRM12 = 300DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 17.2N LONM24 = 39.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Anonymous]

Here fishy fishy

[gkrangers]

LBAR is way left, BAMD is somewhat left, BAMM is basically unchanged.

[Ivanhater]

and its actually moving south of the initial

[deltadog03]

i still believe the further WEST this thing moves the chances for a fish go down imho...

[gkrangers]

i still believe the further WEST this thing moves the chances for a fish go down imho...

Ya think?

[Ivanhater]

i still believe the further WEST this thing moves the chances for a fish go down imho...

thats not an opinion, thats just fact

[deltadog03]

i hope that was sarcasim....lol...yeah, plus conditions become better for development further west as well

[hicksta]

i still believe the further WEST this thing moves the chances for a fish go down imho...

[Swimdude]

i still believe the further WEST this thing moves the chances for a fish go down imho...

Wow... That's fascinating!

[cycloneye]

The 00:00z run in the graphic.This 270 track may be temporary as the models show it gaining latitud although the BAM models are a little more west at this run.

[superfly]

i still believe the further WEST this thing moves the chances for a fish go down imho...

We have a genius on our hands here.

[deltadog03]

well, haha we will see what happens in the end...what forecast turns out to be closest...

[Ivanhater]

whats up with the xtrap? they have it moving wnw and its moving wsw