Wilma,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[caneivan]

I agree look at Ivan for an example.

[markymark8]

Look at the bright side of things. If Wilma makes landfall at the NHCs given strength at least it will be a weak major Hurricane of 115 mph winds. That is alot better than 140 to 150 and there is some dry air getting in to the west side of the storm still at least. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

[WindRunner]

Look at the bright side of things. If Wilma makes landfall at the NHCs given strength at least it will be a weak major Hurricane of 115 mph winds. That is alot better than 140 to 150 and there is some dry air getting in to the west side of the storm still at least. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

Of course, you go with the fact that the NHC will not forecast a major hurricane to strengthen much in the 4-5 day range, and their average error at 4-5 days is 20kts, and we could have a 120kt-140mph Cat 4 on our hands at that point.

[dizzyfish]

Quick question. What will keep Wilma so far south? I didn't think that the trough was predicted to be that strong. What am I missing?

[Anonymous]

Wilma is likely to look like this as it bears down on Florida:::

[WindRunner]

Now if it could only take that track . . .

[markymark8]

Wilma is likely to look like this as it bears down on Florida:::

Yeah I would say no stronger than that. Which Hurricane is that and what are the winds at that point??

[WindRunner]

Michelle from 2001. It's at 120kts there.

[TheEuropean]

Yeah I would say no stronger than that. Which Hurricane is that and what are the winds at that point??

Hurricane Michelle Nov. 4th, 2001
sustained winds to 115 kt, gusts to 140 kt

This is an image two days before:

[Scorpion]

the models will flip flop. I say the models will move a little more to the left. I have seen the models do this way too many times..

I would not want a Tampa hit.

[fci]

the models will flip flop. I say the models will move a little more to the left. I have seen the models do this way too many times..

I think the only the models will go is further south.

For South Florida's sake, let this one go through the Fla Straits the opposite way that Rita did.

Strength-wise; I did here a Met say that if it is in the westerlies; there would be shear but not a cross shear, just a push in the same direction it is heading which would elongate it a bit but, unlike a storm heading North with a West shear cutting the tops off of the convection a SW to NE Jet would be blowing in the same direction as the storm would be heading.

I guess my rambling is trying to convey that it would encounter shear but not the type that would greatly weaken the storm.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Anybody have the latest Euro?

[Scorpion]

the models will flip flop. I say the models will move a little more to the left. I have seen the models do this way too many times..

I think the only the models will go is further south.

For South Florida's sake, let this one go through the Fla Straits the opposite way that Rita did.

I highly doubt it. It will either stay on S FL or shift north towards Central.

[JamesFromMaine2]

[ronjon]

Anybody have the latest Euro?

Latest 00Z Euro, which has been remarkably consistent has it going on a Port Charlotte to Melbourne track across the state. Not sure I buy off on the extreme S FL track yet - it could happen. The angle of recurvature will probably make this a real nailbiter all the way up to the last 12 hours. As always a question of timing. I see where the new 06Z suite of models has shifted back toward the NE tip of the YUC rather than the western tip of Cuba. They will be flying the Gulfstream jet for data gathering around the storm today - hopefully it'll improve model output or make it more certain.




http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

[DESTRUCTION5]

Anybody have the latest Euro?

Latest 00Z Euro, which has been remarkably consistent has it going on a Port Charlotte to Melbourne track across the state. Not sure I buy off on the extreme S FL track yet - it could happen. The angle of recurvature will probably make this a real nailbiter all the way up to the last 12 hours. As always a question of timing. I see where the new 06Z suite of models has shifted back toward the NE tip of the YUC rather than the western tip of Cuba. They will be flying the Gulfstream jet for data gathering around the storm today - hopefully it'll improve model output or make it more certain.




http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 00!!!step/

Thanks Alot Ron!

[cycloneye]

Let's have a quick mini poll here.

Will Wilma be a hurricane at 8 AM Advisorie?.

I say close call but no they will do it at 11 AM.

[JamesFromMaine2]

I think it will be a hurricane at 8am! Its been looking better and better all morning! Still has a little dry air to fight off but other then that I think its looking very healthy! Its even had what looks to be a eye coming and going all morning!

[ericinmia]

Let's have a quick mini poll here.

Will Wilma be a hurricane at 8 AM Advisorie?.

I say close call but no they will do it at 11 AM.

lol, it depends.

Avila doesn't like to upgrade them...

Also the 0z Euro is moving quicker to and through florida
-Eric

[DESTRUCTION5]

Let's have a quick mini poll here.

Will Wilma be a hurricane at 8 AM Advisorie?.

I say close call but no they will do it at 11 AM.

Its got the Fist look Luis...Look for 95MPH Cat 2 by 500PM