Tropical Development at Bahamas / GOM in comming days?

[cycloneye]

What about that back up site that I never seem to remember to bookmark? Is that one down?

Link to backup site,but this has been out for weeks.

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[cycloneye]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 26.7N 85.7W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 03.10.2007 26.7N 85.7W WEAK

12UTC 03.10.2007 26.4N 87.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 04.10.2007 26.4N 89.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 04.10.2007 27.4N 90.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.10.2007 29.1N 91.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.10.2007 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


12z UKMET

[frederic79]

Has anyone noticed that the NHC GOES-East Caribbean animation shows a 1009 mb surface low centered just east of Miami (select NWS fronts option).

[Cyclone1]

Has anyone noticed that the NHC GOES-East Caribbean animation shows a 1009 mb surface low centered just east of Miami (select NWS fronts option).

Weak sfc low mentioned in the TWO also. Things could get interesting soon.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC



The Canadian model has a one-two punch for the GOM?

[x-y-no]

12z CMC



The Canadian model has a one-two punch for the GOM?

Heh ... that second one looks like Rita reborn ...

Thank God it's just the Canadian model ...

[hurricanetrack]

Looks like it takes laftovers of Karen and rolls up extreme south Florida after what ever the heck is going to brew this week.

If, if, if, if, if the Canadian model were to be right on this exact run, well, that would be bad, bad, bad, bad.

[Cyclone1]

I swear the CMC provides better entertainment that Saturday Night Live.

(EDIT: Which isn't saying much...)

[Wx_Warrior]

And SNL isn't what it's used to be...CMC is a JOKE

[cycloneye]

Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM)

The CMC's GEM is a hydrostatic global grid point model laid on a latitude/longitude coordinate system with 0.3 latitude-0.45 longitude (approximately 33 km at 49 degrees latitude) horizontal grid spacing and 58 vertical eta levels. The eta vertical coordinate system used in the CMC's GEM depicts the bottom atmospheric layer within each grid box as a flat step. The CMC's GEM employs an advanced and computationally expensive four-dimensional data assimilation scheme (4-D Var) where temporal variations in the initial data are included. The condensation package includes the Kain-Fritsch scheme for deep moist convection and Kuo Transient scheme for shallow convection. The Bougeault and Lacarrere (1989) mixing length is used for vertical diffusion due to atmospheric turbulence. The CMC's GEM is run through 144 hours at 12 UTC, 240 hours at 00 UTC, and 360 hours on Saturdays. The CMC's GEM has limited ability to provide useful intensity forecasts.

http://www.smc-msc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/op_syst ... ent_e.html

Above is what the Canadian model does.At link above is the information about an upgrade that they made to this model.

[Wx_Warrior]

Good read. Still sucks

[Ed Mahmoud]

TPC Marine Weather Discussion says nothing happens

(Releveant portion only)

SURFACE...
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN BAHAMAS AND MOVES WEST TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT AND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND THE STRONG
WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL DECREASE TUESDAY. THE LOW WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH GULF COAST FRIDAY. THE LOW IS NOT
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
NORTH.

[cycloneye]

2:05 PM TWD:

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER W CUBA AND
YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC TO NEAR 29N75W.
A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR BERMUDA
SW OVER THE EXTREME N BAHAMA ISLANDS THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA. HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 130 NM N OF THIS BOUNDARY W OF 76W ACROSS ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS AND OVER SE FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 27N75W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR
24N77W CONTINUING S ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN.

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/modules.php?n ... ge&pid=109

[Ed Mahmoud]

:uarrow: I swear the CMC provides better entertainment that Saturday Night Live.

(EDIT: Which isn't saying much...)

That Canadian hit on Miami would require a new Saffir Simpson Scale Number, a Category 7!

[MiamiensisWx]

It looks like there's a broad low-level circulation over northern Andros Island, Bahamas. It's moving slowly W per this loop. It's situated near the TWD's 1009 mb Bahamian sfc low position.

Click here

[cycloneye]

[ronjon]

I was just about to post that miami - clear low pressure system just north of Andros Island - moving slowly west. High shear over it but it looks to be at the surface.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20071001&endTime=-1&duration=3

[fci]

:uarrow: I swear the CMC provides better entertainment that Saturday Night Live.

(EDIT: Which isn't saying much...)

That Canadian hit on Miami would require a new Saffir Simpson Scale Number, a Category 7!

Still recovering from the CMC hurricane that was supposed to hit here on 8/23.
As I recall, we did get a gust to about 10 mph that afternoon.

[caneman]

And buoy support. Lookt at this pressure drop!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

[seaswing]

:uarrow: I swear the CMC provides better entertainment that Saturday Night Live.

(EDIT: Which isn't saying much...)

That Canadian hit on Miami would require a new Saffir Simpson Scale Number, a Category 7!

Still recovering from the CMC hurricane that was supposed to hit here on 8/23.
As I recall, we did get a gust to about 10 mph that afternoon.

Good One!