ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[gigabite]

a couple of defining points
1. An el Nino reduces the probability of a named Atlantic Tropical Storm by 25%
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/%28Gh%29/g ... /enso.rxml
2. the period between el Nino's varies between 2 to 7 years
a 60% chance of an el Nino by December 2014 is a 40% chance that the el Nino will not develop until December 2016.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o

That being said the increase in rainfall along the Gulf Coast would seem to indicate a potential for the diminishing of the drought in southern California by the same definition with out a full blown el Nino. I would think that the more concerning Pacific anomaly would be that warming off Northern China over to Alaska.

Regarding El Nino Atlantic hurricane activity, that is obvious, but some El Ninos have stuff at high-latitudes E of Bermuda, something despite the El Nino-like effects, we have no really had (sure storms have intensified there, but not actually developed) Since 1950, we've never gone more than 5 years without an El Nino. And what's your bias for the third statement? Why are you eliminating any chance at one for 2015 and most of 2016? If we get no El Nino, all the heat will focus to the subsurface, and sooner or later, we'll get one, since the SST's on the subsurface will make its way to the surface.

Two to Seven years is in the definition of this anomaly. If the mean is 5 then the bias is toward the two year period.

"Definition
El Niño is defined by prolonged warming in the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures when compared with the average value. The accepted definition is a warming of at least 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) averaged over the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean. Typically, this anomaly happens at irregular intervals of two to seven years, and lasts nine months to two years.[5] The average period length is five years. When this warming occurs for only seven to nine months, it is classified as El Niño "conditions"; when it occurs for more than that period, it is classified as El Niño "episodes".[6]" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/El_Ni%C3%B1o

If the range is 2 to 7 years and there is a 60% chance up to the mean then the complement is 40%.

[Ntxw]

Two to Seven years is in the definition of this anomaly. If the mean is 5 then the bias is toward the two year period.

If the range is 2 to 7 years and there is a 60% chance up to the mean then the complement is 40%.

NOAA identifies the 2-7 years as to the span between El Nino and/or La Nina (an ENSO event) and not specifically El Nino. Meaning occurrence other than neutral, does not specifically state El Nino or La Nina. Yellow Evan is correct that since 1950, there has not been an absence of El Nino longer than 5 years.

Per NOAA

El Niño and La Niña occur on average every 3 to 5 years. However, in the historical record the interval between events has varied from 2 to 7 years. According to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, this century's previous La Niñas began in 1903, 1906, 1909, 1916, 1924, 1928, 1938, 1950, 1954, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988, and 1995. These events typically continued into the following spring. Since 1975, La Niñas have been only half as frequent as El Niños

There may have been some before 1950 but data before that is unreliable and with the complexities of ENSO, it's best not to use them without caution.

[Yellow Evan]

Per NOAA

El Niño and La Niña occur on average every 3 to 5 years. However, in the historical record the interval between events has varied from 2 to 7 years. According to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, this century's previous La Niñas began in 1903, 1906, 1909, 1916, 1924, 1928, 1938, 1950, 1954, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988, and 1995. These events typically continued into the following spring. Since 1975, La Niñas have been only half as frequent as El Niños

There may have been some before 1950 but data before that is unreliable and with the complexities of ENSO, it's best not to use them without caution.

IIIRC, there was no El Nino from 1942-47 so I guess that's possible, but 1939-1942 itself was a triple El Nino. But that's pre-1950. BTW, why aren't 1983-84 and 1984-85 part of the La Nina list above.

If the range is 2 to 7 years and there is a 60% chance up to the mean then the complement is 40%.

You said 2016 in your post. Did you mean 2014?

[Ntxw]

IIIRC, there was no El Nino from 1942-47 so I guess that's possible, but 1939-1942 itself was a triple El Nino. But that's pre-1950. BTW, why aren't 1983-84 and 1984-85 part of the La Nina list above.

It is an outdated list using the old subset of base period. In 2011 a new subset base was created and 1983 qualifies using 1981-2010 base for ONI. There are discrepencies considering ENSO years before 2010 were using the previous set but for consistency purposes the new subset is used by the CPC.

A similar situation is 2005-2006, where the old subset was neutral but the updated ONI lists as La Nina.

[gigabite]

Two to Seven years is in the definition of this anomaly. If the mean is 5 then the bias is toward the two year period.

If the range is 2 to 7 years and there is a 60% chance up to the mean then the complement is 40%.

NOAA identifies the 2-7 years as to the span between El Nino and/or La Nina (an ENSO event) and not specifically El Nino. Meaning occurrence other than neutral, does not specifically state El Nino or La Nina. Yellow Evan is correct that since 1950, there has not been an absence of El Nino longer than 5 years.

Per NOAA

I understand what you are saying, but that puts the el nino to el nino range at a maximum of 14 years not 5. I don't see that as reasonable, and since the definition has only been stable for about a decade I suggest that anything before 2004 is suspect.

[Ntxw]

I understand what you are saying, but that puts the el nino to el nino range at a maximum of 14 years not 5. I don't see that as reasonable, and since the definition has only been stable for about a decade I suggest that anything before 2004 is suspect.

I'm not sure what that means. I'm just stating that you are using information from NOAA when you stated 2-7 years and that is their definition. The longest span for El Nino is 5 years, and the longest span for La Nina is 7 years. Some occur the year after the first event, thus 2-7 years is difference between any ENSO event.

[Yellow Evan]

Two to Seven years is in the definition of this anomaly. If the mean is 5 then the bias is toward the two year period.

If the range is 2 to 7 years and there is a 60% chance up to the mean then the complement is 40%.

NOAA identifies the 2-7 years as to the span between El Nino and/or La Nina (an ENSO event) and not specifically El Nino. Meaning occurrence other than neutral, does not specifically state El Nino or La Nina. Yellow Evan is correct that since 1950, there has not been an absence of El Nino longer than 5 years.

Per NOAA

I understand what you are saying, but that puts the el nino to el nino range at a maximum of 14 years not 5. I don't see that as reasonable, and since the definition has only been stable for about a decade I suggest that anything before 2004 is suspect.

El Nino and its definition has been stable since the 1970s (sat era) at least (you could argue for 1991, when we got the modern buoys as how broken they are). And when was there 14 years without an El Nino?

[gigabite]

El Nino and its definition has been stable since the 1970s (sat era) at least (you could argue for 1991, when we got the modern buoys as how broken they are). And when was there 14 years without an El Nino?

Show the reference. In 1970 el Nino was Peruvian fishing story hence the name.
here is mine.
http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/relea ... 03119.html

[Yellow Evan]

El Nino and its definition has been stable since the 1970s (sat era) at least (you could argue for 1991, when we got the modern buoys as how broken they are). And when was there 14 years without an El Nino?

Show the reference. In 1970 el Nino was Peruvian fishing story hence the name.
here is mine.
http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/relea ... 03119.html

Oh, I know what you mean. Well, the same definition has been applied to time frames before that time. Still, I see no reason to not use data from the satellite era pre-2003.

[gigabite]

Main point of this paper is that the amplitude of this phenomena changes.
https://www.vsp.ucar.edu/cgc/20thCelebr ... tavas-.pdf

[Ntxw]

Been awhile since posted a map. Here it is below, update tomorrow probably not much change +-0.1

[cycloneye]

CPC update of 9/29/14 cools Nino 3.4 down slightly from the +0.5C that was the past two weeks to +0.4C.Read the text of update below graphic.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,what is going on in the past 7-10 days that the SOI is going up (Although still at negative) and the ENSO areas are not as warm with Nino 3.4 falling below the +0.5C?

[Kingarabian]

How is it not El-Nino yet?

IT'S SO HOT HERE IN HAWAII. The humidity is off the charts.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,what is going on in the past 7-10 days that the SOI is going up (Although still at negative) and the ENSO areas are not as warm with Nino 3.4 falling below the +0.5C?

Think we may see some positive SOI's for a little while, at least as far as I can see. Nothing really major but at the same time we will also lose some -SOI earlier in the month. Perhaps Larry can chime in, he's usually very good at that stuff.

There is a WWB starting in the western Pacific, I don't know yet if it will spread eastward but it's something to watch. Until then some weak easterlies is going on in Nino 3.4 region

[Yellow Evan]

Ntxw,what is going on in the past 7-10 days that the SOI is going up (Although still at negative) and the ENSO areas are not as warm with Nino 3.4 falling below the +0.5C?

Think we may see some positive SOI's for a little while, at least as far as I can see. Nothing really major but at the same time we will also lose some -SOI earlier in the month. Perhaps Larry can chime in, he's usually very good at that stuff.

There is a WWB starting in the western Pacific, I don't know yet if it will spread eastward but it's something to watch. Until then some weak easterlies is going on in Nino 3.4 region

MJO (although weak) is near Darwin. That's why.

[asd123]

I still maintain my position that this El Nino event still seems like it's on the fence. When I look at the TAO subsurface anomalies, at one day the warm pool is pushing up the other day it goes down. Over the past couple of weeks the progress of any warming seemed stagnant, with little to no additional warming.

[Yellow Evan]

When I look at the TAO subsurface anomalies, at one day the warm pool is pushing up the other day it goes down.

ENSO is a gradual process. It's best not to drive yourself crazy through daily changes. It has a lot of "noise".

[LarryWx]

Ntxw,what is going on in the past 7-10 days that the SOI is going up (Although still at negative) and the ENSO areas are not as warm with Nino 3.4 falling below the +0.5C?

Think we may see some positive SOI's for a little while, at least as far as I can see. Nothing really major but at the same time we will also lose some -SOI earlier in the month. Perhaps Larry can chime in, he's usually very good at that stuff.

There is a WWB starting in the western Pacific, I don't know yet if it will spread eastward but it's something to watch. Until then some weak easterlies is going on in Nino 3.4 region

Here is a copy of a post I made at another BB yesterday regarding the SOI:

"Per today's 0Z Euro fwiw, none of the next 10 days would have a solid -SOI although it looks like we may get a small -SOI tomorrow and possibly over the next three or so days. After that, this run suggests some +SOI's. Bottom line: the persistent solid -SOI period of August and most of September has ended for at least the time being."

[asd123]

When I look at the TAO subsurface anomalies, at one day the warm pool is pushing up the other day it goes down.

ENSO is a gradual process. It's best not to drive yourself crazy through daily changes. It has a lot of "noise".

Yes, but over the past couple of weeks and months ENSO el Nino warming has had little to no progress. I don't know what the oceans are up to, but something doesn't seem to be clicking.