ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This Nino is in business basinwide. Per Levi Cowan's site all regions are above 1C and even the buoys average out over 1C.

Except we're not seeing El Nino, we're seeing a different phenomenon, unnamed AFAIK. El Nino is above average temps in the eastern equatorial Pacific combined with below average temperatures in the western equatorial Pacific. The entire equatorial Pacific heating up is certainly going to have massive effects on worldwide weather but they won't generally be the same as the classic El Nino effects.

Evolution to a more classic El Nino is certainly possible but it's not happening for now.

Totally false.

El Niño means above average [at least above 0.5 celsius] over Region 3.4, which is between the CPAC and WPAC. Other regions are just supplementary, but Niño 1+2 deters whether Modoki [cooler than 3.4/4] or Traditional [warmer than 3.4/4]

[Nairobi]

It's not that simple. Refer to:

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... -ni%C3%B1o

[Yellow Evan]

It's not that simple. Refer to:

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... -ni%C3%B1o

Yes it is. The article stays that it is unusual for the WPAC SSt's to be this warm during an El Nino,but that does not mean one can not technically be declared with the war SSt's in the WPAC.

[Nairobi]

What's not important is the "declaration" of an El Nino. Rather, it's whether El Nino conditions exist and whether they are likely to become more intense. This is what the previous poster was picking up when talking about western Pacific SST anomalies.

[cycloneye]

Levi's site has been out due to an attack but it briefly came back and I grabbed the Nino 3.4 graphic to see how are things there.

[Ntxw]

Update tomorrow, will be the 6th reading in a row of 0.5C or greater and really you can go back to late August, Nino 3.4 most readings (except for one 0.3C) were 0.4C or 0.5C. If you average out with the 0.6C or greater values of late the average of the 3 months would be enough to be over 0.5C for a trimonthly (SON). Except ONI I think uses a slightly different data set but it's pretty close. So Cycloneye's December 4th date sure sounds good about now.



This is the average of all guidance (dynamical and statistical) from the recent IRI update starting from NDJ 2014 through JAS 2015 in order

0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.7/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.4

[Yellow Evan]

What's not important is the "declaration" of an El Nino. Rather, it's whether El Nino conditions exist and whether they are likely to become more intense. This is what the previous poster was picking up when talking about western Pacific SST anomalies.

MEI values has been positive for quite some time, so that means atmospherically, we're in an El Nino of some sort.

[Ntxw]

I disagree with the sentiment a declaration is not important. The CPC doesn't mark a line and declare one for the fun of it, it happens because they have sufficient evidence an ENSO event has been ongoing for more than just a fleeting moment, it is the minimal requirement which is already pretty hefty as it is. ENSO isn't a black and white thing, there are different variations not just among the events but changes in each event itself during the changing seasons which is why a declaration is important, it gives the minimum you should look for. Otherwise we'll be around arguing what 2009 was without the gradient and central Pacific dominated.

[Yellow Evan]

I disagree with the sentiment a declaration is not important. The CPC doesn't mark a line and declare one for the fun of it, it happens because they have sufficient evidence an ENSO event has been ongoing for more than just a fleeting moment, it is the minimal requirement which is already pretty hefty as it is. ENSO isn't a black and white thing, there are different variations not just among the events but changes in each event itself during the changing seasons which is why a declaration is important, it gives the minimum you should look for.

I agree, though at this point, we can assume that the effects will be the more or less same whether the CPC declarers an El Nino or not.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,what is your expectation for the Mondays weekly CPC update (Remains at +0.8C or is another number up or down?

[Ntxw]

I agree, though at this point, we can assume that the effects will be the more or less same whether the CPC declarers an El Nino or not.

And the +PDO just amplifies it for the NHEM. We've had an entire calendar year of it, that is impressive no matter how you put it and it intensified the second half of the year and will continue.

Ntxw,what is your expectation for the Mondays weekly CPC update (Remains at +0.8C or is another number up or down?

I don't see any evidence for it to go down, CPC doesn't like drastic changes so I'll guess 0.8C, I guessed 0.9C last week but they kept it the same

[dexterlabio]

I don't think a warmer-than-average western/west equatorial Pacific affects the kind of El Nino. Moreover, if there will be a different effect because of this, I think it will only affect the Western Pacific area and North America will still see typical effects of El Nino over the coming months.

[Nairobi]

I disagree with the sentiment a declaration is not important. The CPC doesn't mark a line and declare one for the fun of it, it happens because they have sufficient evidence an ENSO event has been ongoing for more than just a fleeting moment, it is the minimal requirement which is already pretty hefty as it is. ENSO isn't a black and white thing, there are different variations not just among the events but changes in each event itself during the changing seasons which is why a declaration is important, it gives the minimum you should look for.

It's an arbitrary dividing line, regardless of how hard it is to cross the line. The criteria exist for the purpose of classification for classification's sake and perhaps encouraging discussion in the news media.

What's far more important is whether the Maritime Continent will have a crippling drought or East Africa have massive flooding. None of that depends on a CPC weekly press release.

[dexterlabio]

^About this matter too, do you think the lack of strong MJO pulse propagating from WPAC to EPAC is a reason why the western equatorial Pacific remains to have above average SST's?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I disagree with the sentiment a declaration is not important. The CPC doesn't mark a line and declare one for the fun of it, it happens because they have sufficient evidence an ENSO event has been ongoing for more than just a fleeting moment, it is the minimal requirement which is already pretty hefty as it is. ENSO isn't a black and white thing, there are different variations not just among the events but changes in each event itself during the changing seasons which is why a declaration is important, it gives the minimum you should look for.

It's an arbitrary dividing line, regardless of how hard it is to cross the line. The criteria exist for the purpose of classification for classification's sake and perhaps encouraging discussion in the news media.

What's far more important is whether the Maritime Continent will have a crippling drought or East Africa have massive flooding. None of that depends on a CPC weekly press release.

The declaration is important not merely for classification's sake, it serves as verification and validity of the EL NIÑO event. If there would not be such classification, then there would be no valid proof of it. ENSO is a very complicated climate oscillation/pattern in the Pacific Ocean, and is defined as persistent warming, not just some ordinary warming. Ntxw's statement is true.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I'm seeing it cool down to +0.7

[Ntxw]

This week's update is going to be 0.9C

[cycloneye]

Indeed is up to +0.9C at the weekly update by CPC of 11/24/14. December 4 looks imminent for the official El Nino declaration after the data that was provided on this update.In fact I would be somewhat surprised if it's not declared on that date.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

So the CPC can declare an El-Nino despite the current El-Nino watch? Shouldn't a warning be issued first and then a declaration?

[cycloneye]

So the CPC can declare an El-Nino despite the current El-Nino watch? Shouldn't a warning be issued first and then a declaration?

If I am not mistaken when they upgrade to El Nino Warning it means the declaration but I am not 100% sure so I will leave it to Ntxw to answer that question.