Pouch P17L in Eastern Atlantic -(Now Invest 97L)

[Ivanhater]

Hits the entire SE Cast this run

[Vortex]

2nd landfall SC....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal228.gif

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I am not one to get overly excited or worried, but am getting some what concerned the pattern has not really changed that much from run to run. Which is pretty amazing since it is more than one model reflecting the same general thinking.

[Ivanhater]

The Euro has a very different set up with a big ridge over the east coast so it will be interesting. Looking at the GFS ensembles and Euro, I would suspect some GFS Gulf runs in the near future,

[KWT]

Interesting run, trough looks just a touch stronger this run which helps to turn the system NNW and then recurve it into the Carolinas...

ECM tomorrow morning will be most interesting, need to see this invested soon IMO!

[Vortex]

End point at this point is far less important as synoptics favor a strengthening Hurricane approaching the area "possibly" between the central gulf coast and the carolinas....Probablly a good time to go over prep plans etc.....

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Hits the entire SE Cast this run

Ivan on that run it's very hard to tell does it come on shore in S FLA around Miami or north?

[Ivanhater]

Hits the entire SE Cast this run

Ivan on that run it's very hard to tell does it come on shore in S FLA around Miami or north?

Looks like West Palm beach to me

[Blown Away]

Hold up, after further review, that's on top of me! I don't like that!!

IMO, to much stall time and to sharp of a N turn, wouldn't be suprised to see more of W bend into the EGOM, because run after run that ridge is not letting this system out w/o CONUS landfall.

[Brent]

18z GFS rakes the entire coast from Miami to the Outer Banks. This is so consistent it's becoming a problem.

Also the hurricane just north of Miami, that's next Thursday Night...

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks,

I know we are still far out and things change, but have a place in Key largo and don't need something like that going there.

[KWT]

The Euro has a very different set up with a big ridge over the east coast so it will be interesting. Looking at the GFS ensembles and Euro, I would suspect some GFS Gulf runs in the near future,

They are very different...

Indeed big differences even at 96hrs, the ECM takes it near due west crashing into Hispaniola...the GFS curves up WNW into Hispaniola from further south...

A midway solution would be the system further south but following the ECM solution of keeping it weaker for longer...

Despite consistancy, not convinced the GFS has a good grip, its way too agressive IMO on the strengthening trend given the dry air/SAL...which from the looks of things it may not have an all that good grip on...

[Epsilon_Fan]

2nd landfall SC....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... cal228.gif

not a good scenario for my area... What strength is a 984 mb cane? Cat 2?

[Vortex]

looking at the latest IR I'd suspect well be in invest mode by morning...Probablly mentioned in the TWO at 2am...

[TheShrimper]

If it is unwarranted to classify it as an invest, it's not going to be classified. Doing so is not going to enhance it's chances or diminish them. Don't sweat it, something is out there, let it do or don't do over the next week, then pay attention closely. Too many variables and uncertainty to start taking a powder now.

[gatorcane]

The Euro has a very different set up with a big ridge over the east coast so it will be interesting. Looking at the GFS ensembles and Euro, I would suspect some GFS Gulf runs in the near future,

They are very different...

Indeed big differences even at 96hrs, the ECM takes it near due west crashing into Hispaniola...the GFS curves up WNW into Hispaniola from further south...

A midway solution would be the system further south but following the ECM solution of keeping it weaker for longer...

Despite consistancy, not convinced the GFS has a good grip, its way too agressive IMO on the strengthening trend given the dry air/SAL...which from the looks of things it may not have an all that good grip on...

Yeah I agree with you on the GFS in that I think it is way too bullish.

Also do note the GFS tends to underestimate ridges in the long-range more so than the ECMWF.

Now if we get some very bullish runs from the ECMWF showing a similar solution, it will certainly get more of my attention.

[Florida1118]

If it is unwarranted to classify it as an invest, it's not going to be classified. Doing so is not going to enhance it's chances or diminish them. Don't sweat it, something is out there, let it do or don't do over the next week, then pay attention closely. Too many variables and uncertainty to start taking a powder now.

There is no qualifications to become an Invest. They've made a low over Texas an Invest. They can make whatever they want an invest...

[KWT]

If it is unwarranted to classify it as an invest, it's not going to be classified. Doing so is not going to enhance it's chances or diminish them. Don't sweat it, something is out there, let it do or don't do over the next week, then pay attention closely. Too many variables and uncertainty to start taking a powder now.

Well really an invest is just an area the NHC want to keep an eye on for possible development...I think in that respect given its possible track it'll be invest sooner rather then later, may even get invested at just 10%.

[Blown Away]

IMO, seems the models think the upper level conditions are favorable near the SE Bahamas, there may be the potential for a very strong system if it doesn't get disrupted by Hispaniola.

[Vortex]

notice to the NW of the estimated LLC the stratoform clouds are beginning to cool indicative of a higher moisture content/less stable air... very large envelope.




http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html