2015 EPAC Season

[gatorcane]

http://i.imgur.com/jsYWJn5.png

Holy crap.

12Z GFS back to bringing the area south of Guatemala into Southern California in the long-range, but in a much weaker state than what tolakram shows above.

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS 912 mbar



Landfall near San Diego

[Yellow Evan]

949 mbar. Still a monster.



Second system fizzles out per ECMWF.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUL 9 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave and a
broad low pressure area centered about 1150 miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of Baja California Sur have increased over the last
24 hours. Continued development is anticipated through the weekend,
and this system will likely become a tropical depression by early
next week while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located south of Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico are associated with a tropical wave and a
weak area of low pressure. Conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development over the next several days, and this system
will likely become a tropical depression by early next week while it
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Hurricaneman]

The area SSW of the Baja will probably be invested shortly and this system could become a humdinger

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Yellow Evan]

The area SSW of the Baja will probably be invested shortly and this system could become a humdinger

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

The 40/80 is the western system and the 20/80 is the monster.

[Kingarabian]

40/80 is the appetizer.

[Yellow Evan]

40/80 is the appetizer.

And is now 97E. In addition to the two CPAC invests that are near TD status.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS brought this to 916 mbar, but stalls this for days.

Great, more upwelling.

[Yellow Evan]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located south of Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico are associated with a tropical wave and a
weak area of low pressure. Conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development over the next several days, and this system
will likely become a tropical depression by early next week while it
moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[Yellow Evan]

0z ECMWF. No stalling.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 98E is up

[Yellow Evan]

Felicia anyone?

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS Felicia



18z GFFS Guillermo

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF shows a hurricane out of Felicia

[Kingarabian]

For those who haven't noticed, the EPAC is entering overclock mode.



Even the invests look like full blown storms.

[Yellow Evan]

For those who haven't noticed, the EPAC is entering overclock mode.

http://i.imgur.com/C4FHpQy.jpg

Even the invests look like full blown storms.

Only 1 invest out there. The two CPAC ones are storms.

Let me list a bunch of records. First of all, 3 CPAC storms have never been co-active. The Central Pacific Hurricane Seasons lasts from June 1 to November 30. No CPAC TC has even formed there in June nor named there. Inside the hurricane season, the earliest forming CPAc name is Ela. Second earliest is Halola and third earliest is Iune. In addition, prior to 2015, there had been only 3 CPAC named systems in July. Well, 2015 has had 3. This also marks the closest span (3 days, old record was 1, 19848) 3 CPAC storms have been named.

If 97E gets activated later today, first time since 2005 we've seen 4 active systems at once and I believe only the third time we saw at least 4. Record: 5 in 1974.

[Ntxw]

To date the EPAC is double (72 vs 36) of ACE at the same time, July 15th, last year.

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF still shows 2 more systems at day 6 and 10.

[cycloneye]

Here comes a new one.

A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about 600 miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Some slow development is possible early next week while this system
moves west-northwestward or northwestward at about 5 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent