Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Hurricaneman]

If the Euro is right we may have an active July and maybe a decent hurricane

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[bg1]

Watch for western Caribbean/Gulf development this season.

It seems as if this is a recurring prediction in recent years, but not much seems to happen in these regions. What factors seem like they will be different this time around?

[ninel conde]

Watch for western Caribbean/Gulf development this season.

It seems as if this is a recurring prediction in recent years, but not much seems to happen in these regions. What factors seem like they will be different this time around?

one think that MIGHT be different is a big heat ridge from texas to the eastern lakes unlike the southern plains heat ridges of the past 10 years.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Watch for western Caribbean/Gulf development this season.

It seems as if this is a recurring prediction in recent years, but not much seems to happen in these regions. What factors seem like they will be different this time around?

If someone said these past 2 years that activity would be above average in the Gulf/Caribbean, you should take their posts with a grain of salt. Historic El Nino = quiet region.

This year is different because we have a developing La Nina, which is resulting in below-average shear across the Gulf and Caribbean.

[Yellow Evan]

Watch for western Caribbean/Gulf development this season.

It seems as if this is a recurring prediction in recent years, but not much seems to happen in these regions. What factors seem like they will be different this time around?

If someone said these past 2 years that activity would be above average in the Gulf/Caribbean, you should take their posts with a grain of salt. Historic El Nino = quiet region.

This year is different because we have a developing La Nina, which is resulting in below-average shear across the Gulf and Caribbean.

There were some posts last year that consisted of people predicting above average activity in the Gulf, although I was quite skeptical and turned out to be right.

And yes lower wind shear across the Gulf and Caribbean is likely this year. However, a lot depends on the steering pattern in years like this. If we have troughing off the East Coast and a northerly positioned ITCZ, it is hard to get those classic Caribbean cruisers and hence dangerous hurricanes in the Gulf and Carribean. Given the Atlantic as of late, I'd target the Southeast coast as a hotspot for activity, in addition to the Gulf and Caribbean.

[hurricanetrack]

To be clear, I said I think the set up for this season, with the in-close development potential, reminds me of 2005. Here is the video blog I did explaining all of that - including a nice shout out to our awesome wxman57

https://youtu.be/Zo8Zt8-f2qY

[Kingarabian]

Idk what to make of the Atlantic yet. Strong shear is still very persistent. We'll see when July gets here.

[tolakram]

Looking at the graphs shear is below normal in just about every region of the Atlantic.

[RL3AO]

Idk what to make of the Atlantic yet. Strong shear is still very persistent. We'll see when July gets here.

Yes but there is supposed to be strong shear in the Atlantic during June. Its the main reason we don't have major hurricanes in June because we know the water is plenty warm enough.

[wxman57]

Watch for western Caribbean/Gulf development this season.

It seems as if this is a recurring prediction in recent years, but not much seems to happen in these regions. What factors seem like they will be different this time around?

That certainly isn't the case as far as what I've been saying in recent years. Last year, for example, a strong El Nino was predicted, which was expected to result in a very quiet Caribbean Sea due to strong wind shear. Plus, the ECMWF was predicting extremely dry conditions from the southern Gulf to the coast of Africa, primarily due to subsidence. We saw that in the instability graphics - very stable air dominated the Caribbean & Gulf. Not this year (see below).

In addition, cooling in the NE Atlantic (AMO area) is indicative of a stronger Azores-Bermuda high, which means stronger easterly trades between the Caribbean & Africa. Stronger trades there mean more low-level shear and upwelling of cooler water, making the MDR less favorable for development this season (maybe not as inhospitable as 2015, though). Those stronger tradewinds will be slowing down when they reach the western Caribbean, resulting in low-level convergence. We didn't see that last season, for the most part.

I think there's a very good chance that the U.S. major hurricane drought will end in 2016.

[SFLcane]

Watch for western Caribbean/Gulf development this season.

It seems as if this is a recurring prediction in recent years, but not much seems to happen in these regions. What factors seem like they will be different this time around?

That certainly isn't the case as far as what I've been saying in recent years. Last year, for example, a strong El Nino was predicted, which was expected to result in a very quiet Caribbean Sea due to strong wind shear. Plus, the ECMWF was predicting extremely dry conditions from the southern Gulf to the coast of Africa, primarily due to subsidence. We saw that in the instability graphics - very stable air dominated the Caribbean & Gulf. Not this year (see below).

In addition, cooling in the NE Atlantic (AMO area) is indicative of a stronger Azores-Bermuda high, which means stronger easterly trades between the Caribbean & Africa. Stronger trades there mean more low-level shear and upwelling of cooler water, making the MDR less favorable for development this season (maybe not as inhospitable as 2015, though). Those stronger tradewinds will be slowing down when they reach the western Caribbean, resulting in low-level convergence. We didn't see that last season, for the most part.

I think there's a very good chance that the U.S. major hurricane drought will end in 2016.

Woah ok.. you seem rather confident on this season being active so Iam paying attention. It will come as a rude awaking especially in Florida. Most have no knowledge or what it's like going through a bonified major let alone any hurricane of any category. We shall see thx for your insight.

[WeatherEmperor]

Luis/Mark, anybody

Can you guys post some graphics/other information for the NAO how positive or negative it is currently and what the forecast is for Aug/Sept?

I want to get an idea if there is a higher chance for troughing or ridging on the East Coast of the US during the peak of the season.

[AJC3]

Luis/Mark, anybody

Can you guys post some graphics/other information for the NAO how positive or negative it is currently and what the forecast is for Aug/Sept?

I want to get an idea if there is a higher chance for troughing or ridging on the East Coast of the US during the peak of the season.

To my knowledge, shorter term oscillations such the NAO (AO, PNA, MJO) aren't forecast beyond a couple of weeks as the predictability isn't at all reliable beyond those ranges.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /nao.shtml

[thundercam96]

It seems as if this is a recurring prediction in recent years, but not much seems to happen in these regions. What factors seem like they will be different this time around?

That certainly isn't the case as far as what I've been saying in recent years. Last year, for example, a strong El Nino was predicted, which was expected to result in a very quiet Caribbean Sea due to strong wind shear. Plus, the ECMWF was predicting extremely dry conditions from the southern Gulf to the coast of Africa, primarily due to subsidence. We saw that in the instability graphics - very stable air dominated the Caribbean & Gulf. Not this year (see below).

In addition, cooling in the NE Atlantic (AMO area) is indicative of a stronger Azores-Bermuda high, which means stronger easterly trades between the Caribbean & Africa. Stronger trades there mean more low-level shear and upwelling of cooler water, making the MDR less favorable for development this season (maybe not as inhospitable as 2015, though). Those stronger tradewinds will be slowing down when they reach the western Caribbean, resulting in low-level convergence. We didn't see that last season, for the most part.

I think there's a very good chance that the U.S. major hurricane drought will end in 2016.

Woah ok.. you seem rather confident on this season being active so Iam paying attention. It will come as a rude awaking especially in Florida. Most have no knowledge or what it's like going through a bonified major let alone any hurricane of any category. We shall see thx for your insight.

The level of hurricane complacency in Florida is unreal. I moved here in 2008, after the 04/05 season, and I have yet to go through a hurricane here. I still however realize the risks to any storm, whether it be a TS or Cat 4. I have plenty of friends say "It's just a lot of wind and rain" or "They will never hit here". "No need to worry" is also a common one.

[TheStormExpert]

Another common one is "They go to the Carolinas" or "They go out to sea".

[OuterBanker]

I am curious about an anomaly that hasn’t been mentioned yet in this thread. The total lack of activity in the epac. There has not been one named storm as of date. If I remember correctly last year had several hurricanes by this time, including a major. Is there a reason for this anomaly and will it have an effect on the west Atlantic?

[ScottNAtlanta]

I have a question about the Loop Current in the GOM. I have read that every 2-11 years a strong eddy breaks off and moves slowly west-southwest. I have been trying to find a real time forecast for this but all that I have seen (other than academic papers) is this site

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com/custom/mo ... _gulf.html

This image seems to indicate one of these eddys have broken off from the main current which can have major implications to systems that get into the GOM. For example, one of these eddys broke off just in time for the 2005 season. If anyone knows of what is forecast for this current please point me in that direction.

[SFLcane]

I am curious about an anomaly that hasn’t been mentioned yet in this thread. The total lack of activity in the epac. There has not been one named storm as of date. If I remember correctly last year had several hurricanes by this time, including a major. Is there a reason for this anomaly and will it have an effect on the west Atlantic?

You know what they say when the epac is active the Atl is dead. Sooo maybe all the energy will be focused in the Atlantic this year.

[Javlin]

I am curious about an anomaly that hasn’t been mentioned yet in this thread. The total lack of activity in the epac. There has not been one named storm as of date. If I remember correctly last year had several hurricanes by this time, including a major. Is there a reason for this anomaly and will it have an effect on the west Atlantic?

You know what they say when the epac is active the Atl is dead. Sooo maybe all the energy will be focused in the Atlantic this year.

That is true.it's basically a yen/yang,N/S,good/evil a balancing act that happens everyday in our lives.

[WPBWeather]

I am curious about an anomaly that hasn’t been mentioned yet in this thread. The total lack of activity in the epac. There has not been one named storm as of date. If I remember correctly last year had several hurricanes by this time, including a major. Is there a reason for this anomaly and will it have an effect on the west Atlantic?

You know what they say when the epac is active the Atl is dead. Sooo maybe all the energy will be focused in the Atlantic this year.

That is true.it's basically a yen/yang,N/S,good/evil a balancing act that happens everyday in our lives.

Although weather has no "memory" in the human sense, I mentioned something similar to above to some of the EPAC bloggers on here last year who seemed convinced the ATL and the MDR were "dead."