2018 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

18z GFS through 240 hours back to showing Emilia stronger, Fabio a potent cat.4 hurricane, and eventually Gilma a potent cat.4 hurricane.

GFS and the Euro have been all over the place in regards to steering. Being that these next 3 named systems will be forming this week and next week, SST's to the north still need some more time to be ideal to harbor major hurricanes.

We're also at the stage where steering is shifting from recurving closer to Mexico to pushing systems west closer to the CPAC.

Again GFS has at the end Hector.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS through 240 hours back to showing Emilia stronger, Fabio a potent cat.4 hurricane, and eventually Gilma a potent cat.4 hurricane.

GFS and the Euro have been all over the place in regards to steering. Being that these next 3 named systems will be forming this week and next week, SST's to the north still need some more time to be ideal to harbor major hurricanes.

We're also at the stage where steering is shifting from recurving closer to Mexico to pushing systems west closer to the CPAC.

Again GFS has at the end Hector.

18z GFS also looks like it has Ileana somewhere in between.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS through 240 hours back to showing Emilia stronger, Fabio a potent cat.4 hurricane, and eventually Gilma a potent cat.4 hurricane.

GFS and the Euro have been all over the place in regards to steering. Being that these next 3 named systems will be forming this week and next week, SST's to the north still need some more time to be ideal to harbor major hurricanes.

We're also at the stage where steering is shifting from recurving closer to Mexico to pushing systems west closer to the CPAC.

Again GFS has at the end Hector.

Correction: Hector and Ileana.

[Weather150]

GFS holding onto the idea of forming Hector in the longer range.

[cycloneye]

What a great run for EPAC if it gets to Ileana before July 15.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS holding onto the idea of forming Hector in the longer range.

I'm seeing strong hints of this in the 12z EPS around day 13-15. So it's an idea with legs.

[Weather150]

What a great run for EPAC if it gets to Ileana before July 15.

I don't see what would really be stopping it from doing that. Things are in its favor tremendously.

[cycloneye]

A westward-moving tropical wave is located over the far eastern
Pacific Ocean. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system over the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form well
south of the coast of Mexico by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
The Eastern Pacific tropics will be very busy over the next 10-days.
GFS has 3 hurricanes in a row. #TropicalUpdate

[Chris90]

Considering all the model runs we've been watching and analyzing, combined with the fact the next storm is to be named Emilia, I can't help but think of the impressive run of Emilia-John back in 1994. Still one of my favorite historical seasons for the EPAC/CPAC combo. Can't help but wonder if the next couple weeks will put on a show to rival the one from 24 year ago, just in a more easterly location with different tracks.

[HurricaneRyan]

I feel like this season might have a storm that could make a run for retirement like Odile and Patricia from the last two active seasons.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS is slightly stronger on future Fabio. (925 mbs the lowest at this run)

[cycloneye]

A westward-moving tropical wave is located over the far eastern
Pacific Ocean, extending southward from El Salvador for several
hundred miles. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development of this system over the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form well
south of the coast of Mexico by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[Kingarabian]

00z UKMET stronger than all of its previous runs; backs the GFS and ends the run showing Fabio becoming a major hurricane, following it is an intensifying Gilma:



Probably throw the Euro solutions out until proven otherwise.

PC - Ryan Maue -http://www.weathermodels.com

[cycloneye]

GFS has been very consistent in all the runs showing the first three systems with the middle one and the one behind becoming major canes but Euro has not been that way.

Here is 06z GFS with the three and see the lowest pressure in the middle one is down to 914 mbs.

[cycloneye]

I think is the first time that GFS has the third system with this lowest pressure. (934 mbs)

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern
Pacific Ocean are associated with a westward-moving tropical wave.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development of this system over the next several days, and a
tropical depression is expected to form well south of the coast of
Mexico over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

It will be very interesting next 2 weeks ahead to see how the atmosphere works to get a basin to be so favorable to spawn a string of strong Tropical Cyclones.

@webberweather
A CCKW passing thru the NE Pacific will spur a burst of TC activity to kick off July. In addition to preconditioning the atmosphere for TCG, the anomalous westerly wind envelope assoc w/ this CCKW makes it easier for easterly waves in the ITCZ to acquire earth relative westerlies





 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1011983975806619648

[cycloneye]

12z ICON has the strongest run yet for future 97E/Fabio.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS loop of future Fabio and Gilma that the model continues to show both very strong while Emila has weakened.