2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[LarryWx]

The very steady EPS continues to have nothing in its latest run (12Z) out 15 days. Dandy Don is warming up.

[SFLcane]

Why are we expecting another system to develop? It’s early June folks and every other season we get a storm which has already happened.

[LarryWx]

Why are we expecting another system to develop? It’s early June folks and every other season we get a storm which has already happened.

The GFS was expecting it with persistence for a number of days. I don't think a whole lot of folks necessarily expected it though it had to be considered as a small chance by most including myself due to the model persistence. Don't confuse discussion with actually expecting something. Even a very small chance is often discussed. Is the chance completely eliminated already? I know the GEFS is getting close to abandoning it/looks like a GFS suite phantom.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks like the gfs caved; development in the epac likely for the next 2 weeks; the Atlantic’s next chance at development may be in late June. We will see.

[La Breeze]

Looks like the gfs caved; development in the epac likely for the next 2 weeks; the Atlantic’s next chance at development may be in late June. We will see.

Much prefer this scenario as I will be in the Keys from the 9th to the 15th. Hoping for no systems during this time - I'll take the heat and humidity, but no storms, please!

[LarryWx]

The 6Z GFS has nothing on 6/10 and support from the 6Z GEFS is limited. The 6/10 genesis is very likely a GFS suite phantom though that is still 5 days out.

[SoupBone]

Looks like the gfs caved; development in the epac likely for the next 2 weeks; the Atlantic’s next chance at development may be in late June. We will see.

Much prefer this scenario as I will be in the Keys from the 9th to the 15th. Hoping for no systems during this time - I'll take the heat and humidity, but no storms, please!

Yeah I've said this many times following Harvey, I'll take the Heat Ridge over Harvey any day. Just means a higher water bill and a higher electricity bill. I'll take that in trade.

[wxman57]

It does seem more likely that the storm the GFS has been developing next week was a phantom, or an East Pac system. With any luck, we're done with development until the second week of August. Wouldn't mind a quiet next couple of months.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z GFS has nothing around 6/10. Being that we're now within 5 days, I think this 6/10 W Caribbean genesis that a number of days in a row of GFS runs were persistent with until just a couple of days ago can just about be Dr. McCoy'ed. Even the recent GEFS runs have shown only limited support.

[northjaxpro]

The 12Z GFS has nothing around 6/10. Being that we're now within 5 days, I think this 6/10 W Caribbean genesis that a number of days in a row of GFS runs were persistent with until just a couple of days ago can just about be Dr. McCoy'ed. Even the recent GEFS runs have shown only limited support.

Yes, it does appear to be a phantom. Still, this does not shake my belief in the model. Overall, the GFS has performed reasonably well over the past several months.

[Aric Dunn]

12z CMC now has development in the western carrib moving into the Gulf.. not all too strong since it spends a lot of time over land. ICON 12z also again hinting it .. it just keeps everything over land.

SO the GFS has been picking up on something.. not just a phantom.

[tropicwatch]

06Z GFS had a low on 6/13

[Alyono]

CMC keeps the system weak, not due to land, but due to 40 kts of 200mb winds out of the south

[Aric Dunn]

CMC keeps the system weak, not due to land, but due to 40 kts of 200mb winds out of the south

Well that too.

[PSUHiker31]

So far the most exciting thing I see in the 12Z models is a nice swirl going into the Florida panhandle in 108 or so hours on the Euro

[aperson]

ECMWF 45r1 has been deployed

 https://twitter.com/FPappenberger/status/1004107494422122498




Change log: https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/display ... cycle+45r1

Selected quote from change log:

The implementation of the ocean-atmosphere coupling in the HRES removes the overall negative bias in tropical cyclone central pressure and thereby reduces the mean absolute intensity error by about 10% in the short range, and about 20% from day 5 onwards. Evaluations so far show statistically neutral results for the position error.

[NDG]

18z GFS back at it again.

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty sure I have not seent eh GFS this persistant.

actually this 18z is very similar to the 12z CMC where its origin is very clear in the SW Carrib before moving NNW>

[Dean4Storms]

Crap, don't like the 12 ECM run. Looks like a TS landfall near PCB this weekend and it shows winds east of the center gusting between 50-60mph. Scratching my head!

[TheStormExpert]

Crap, don't like the 12 ECM run. Looks like a TS landfall near PCB this weekend and it shows winds east of the center gusting between 50-60mph. Scratching my head!

I don’t see a TS, just a very weak low that forms off the tail end of the front.