TD#9

clfenwi · #541 Postby **clfenwi** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 8:20 pm

Any increase in longitude without an increase in latitude does increase the probability of the storm affecting land...slightly... however, from a climatological standpoint that movement would have to be sustained for a few days to reverse the odds. After all, we aren't talking about a storm at 55-60° W, instead we are talking about one yet to pass 45°W.

gkrangers · #542 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 8:23 pm

ivanhater wrote:whats up with the xtrap? they have it moving wnw and its moving wsw

xtrap uses the last NHC motion estimate maybe? not sure. that xtrapolation looks like it corresponds to the 300 degrees the NHC used at 5PM.

#543 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 8:23 pm

right but, still dosn't mean we have a fish either...sure climo says yes..but, you know...climo=out the door this cane season. I just am not seeing how this is going through any weakness...

Steve H. · #544 Postby **Steve H.** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 8:24 pm

OF the tropicals models, the BAM M is probably the better of them, and it seems sensible right now given the uncertainties and available data. Again, this is tiddly winks compared to what's ahead of us in the next month or two. Wait for the basin to clear all this ULL/TUTT nonsense. Then you guys'll lose lots of sleep 8-)

#545 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 8:26 pm

gkrangers wrote:
ivanhater wrote:whats up with the xtrap? they have it moving wnw and its moving wsw
xtrap uses the last NHC motion estimate maybe? not sure. that xtrapolation looks like it corresponds to the 300 degrees the NHC used at 5PM.

oh, that would make sense

JTD · #546 Postby **JTD** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 8:31 pm

Steve H. wrote:OF the tropicals models, the BAM M is probably the better of them, and it seems sensible right now given the uncertainties and available data. Again, this is tiddly winks compared to what's ahead of us in the next month or two. Wait for the basin to clear all this ULL/TUTT nonsense. Then you guys'll lose lots of sleep

LOL. Love how you call it nonsense. It cracked me up for some reason.

superfly · #547 Postby **superfly** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 8:34 pm

If nothing else, this will likely clear the dry air out of the Caribbean for future systems.

#548 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 8:35 pm

the advisory at 10 better be interesting :grrr:

caribepr · #549 Postby **caribepr** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 8:36 pm

superfly wrote:If nothing else, this will likely clear the dry air out of the Caribbean for future systems.

(wiping sweat away) I wish we had some dry air 8-)

but...I'll take the sweat over future systems arriving here.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #550 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 8:36 pm

When is this Upper level low going to finally get out of the way? :roll:

sma10 · #551 Postby **sma10** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 8:37 pm

This slightly south of west motion is interesting, but I think the two keys are: a) how long does this motion persist? If it can continue south of west for two or three DAYS that will make for an intriguing forecast; and b) what shape will the system be in? Right now the deep convection is very far removed from the center (and is actually getting further and further from the center by the hour).

The irony is (as some people have already commented) the worst shape TD9 remains, the likelier that it will hang around longer before recurve.

clfenwi · #552 Postby **clfenwi** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 8:39 pm

deltadog03 wrote:right but, still dosn't mean we have a fish either...sure climo says yes..but, you know...climo=out the door this cane season. I just am not seeing how this is going through any weakness...

I've gotten tired of the continued to references to 'climo is out the window this season' in reference to anything and everything. The statement in the discussion was in specific reference to the future intensity of Emily. And yes, as far as intensity of July hurricanes go, climatology did go out the window as the SSTs were much more like August/September than July.

The statement did not mean 'all recorded history of hurricanes is null and void this season'.

Oh, and deltadog03, I didn't write this to pick on you, specifically, there are many others who have been saying the same sort of thing. You, however, did have the misfortune of being the straw that broke this camel's back

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #553 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 8:40 pm

What a waste it needs to at least get 40 mph winds so it can become a named storm. Damn I would like to see this get 40 mph winds to become another named.

gkrangers · #554 Postby **gkrangers** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 8:41 pm

The motion may have already ended.

LLC may also be less defined than earlier.

And well said clfenwi.

#555 Postby **deltadog03** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 8:41 pm

i guess my point is that every storm is one in its own....heck, maybe this just dries up and poof go bye bye...i guess i should have stated it like there is NO telling where its going, what it will be, or if it even goes poof...

FlSteel · #556 Postby **FlSteel** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 8:51 pm

I don't post alot but read almost every post. I love the tropics and am learning alot here. I guess the question that I am worried about is if this system does not recurve, and gets caught under the high building back in, would we be looking at a recurvature closer to the U.S. east coast, or would there be a better chance of the storm heading to the gulf. Right now I'm just playing a watch and wait approach. I'm not good at trying to figure out the long term patterns setting up in front of these systems.

#557 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 8:54 pm

FlSteel wrote:I don't post alot but read almost every post. I love the tropics and am learning alot here. I guess the question that I am worried about is if this system does not recurve, and gets caught under the high building back in, would we be looking at a recurvature closer to the U.S. east coast, or would there be a better chance of the storm heading to the gulf. Right now I'm just playing a watch and wait approach. I'm not good at trying to figure out the long term patterns setting up in front of these systems.

right now, i dont think anyone has the answer...this system is tricky

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #558 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 8:54 pm

No storm fellows the rules perfectly. In these rules are made out of 150 years of data. In which only the last 50 years of it is worth the paper its writen on. This storm could easly cut under this trough while the ridge to its north pulls it west. Remember Andrew??? Kyle?

The Atmosphere is not some thing that fellows a book/record. It is a always moving or changing. Lets just say if its over 26c or above waters with a half way favable enviroment. Ten its really up to how the ridges/troughs or steering currents that will move the cyclone where its going. It has nothing to do with a book made out of paper or records on a freaking computer.

Our Atmopshere is something that we are only starting to understand. Don't get me wrong the nhc is the best in the business but things change fast. In they do not always fellow the climo. They do not care what some person thinks in Florida or what I think. They just move around fellowing upper highs/troughs.

Yes models give us a idea of what going to happen. But its up to the forecaster to use his or her knowledge to not only look at 150 years of climo but to look at the pattern at hand. We need to think!!!

clfenwi · #559 Postby **clfenwi** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 8:57 pm

Watching the shortwave IR loop, it looks like the center 'bounced' at around 0000Z and resumed a wnw motion (temporarily, at least).

And as gkrangers mentioned, the gap between the center and the convection, which had been closing, has since reopened. TD9's woes continue...

#560 Postby **Ivanhater** » Sat Aug 06, 2005 9:02 pm

it seems to have stopped the wsw dive, but there really is only 1 image to support that, i would like to get a couple more to know for sure

TD#9

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