Global Model Runs for W.Caribbean Early Season Development

[HURAKAN]

[boca]

The title should be changed to add E Pac.

[Frank2]

I'll just guess that this will be an EPAC system, after all - once something does consolidate down there, the models will likely quickly discount any development in the Caribbean (by at least 50%, or, a "2 for 1" sale - LOL)...

[x-y-no]

I'll just guess that this will be an EPAC system, after all - once something does consolidate down there, the models will likely quickly discount any development in the Caribbean (by at least 50%, or, a "2 for 1" sale - LOL)...

That certainly makes the most climatological sense.

And I absolutely don't buy development in both basins. If an EPAC system forms, that'll kill anything in the western Caribbean.

[Meso]

Another solution is what the CMC was showing last night.. A E.Pac storm moving over central america and then regaining status in the Caribbean

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 48 Hours Low pressure shows up East of Nicaragua.

12z GFS at 66 Hours 1006 mb low in the same place.

12z GFS at 72 Hours 1004 mb low.

[JonathanBelles]

This is from the 06Z but look at the rain in Florida!!!

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 48 Hours Low pressure shows up East of Nicaragua.

12z GFS at 66 Hours 1006 mb low in the same place.

12z GFS at 72 Hours 1004 mb low.

12z GFS at 90 Hours Low stuck in Nicaragua.

12z GFS at 120 Hours Looks very good now east of Yucatan.

[x-y-no]

Well, 12Z GFS has it over the Nicaragua/Honduras border at 90 hours, but the structure actually looks quite good. Surface and mid-level low with a nice upper level high right on top, with healthy outflow to the north.

If it drifts north over water while keeping that stacking, then it would have a good chance at development.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 48 Hours Low pressure shows up East of Nicaragua.

12z GFS at 66 Hours 1006 mb low in the same place.

12z GFS at 72 Hours 1004 mb low.

12z GFS at 90 Hours Low stuck in Nicaragua.

12z GFS at 120 Hours Looks very good now east of Yucatan.

[x-y-no]

126 hours steers it into the Yucatan.

[x-y-no]

Too much mid-level ridging in this run for it to go north.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126m.gif

[Ed Mahmoud]

How soon until 12ºN, 95ºW becomes our first E-Pac invest?


I want to be the second person in our Hemisphere, and first in East Pac, to give odds on an invest forming. 47.387%. Notice the number of significant figures, indicative that this was purely a uSWAG figure.

[NDG]

12z gfs surely not missing any beats, it can not be any more persistent and consistent than that, it will be hard for the gfs not to verify of its forecast.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Too much mid-level ridging in this run for it to go north.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126m.gif

Northeast to end wildfire season in Florida and make Daytona safe for the Coke Zero 400 in little over a month? Lets hope so. But nothing too strong, because its is early June, and wishing TCs on other people, for any reason other than drought-busting, is a good way to annoy the board.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 144 Hours Low inside Yucatan.

[x-y-no]

Too much mid-level ridging in this run for it to go north.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_126m.gif

Northeast to end wildfire season in Florida and make Daytona safe for the Coke Zero 400 in little over a month? Lets hope so. But nothing too strong, because its is early June, and wishing TCs on other people, for any reason other than drought-busting, is a good way to annoy the board.

I'd love to have an early season TD or moderate TS - we sure need the rain.

I have no idea yet what the off-season tweaks have done to the GFS. That's always one of the most interesting things about the first few systems to develop. In the old days, it would regularly under-forecast mid-level ridging, but the last two years if anything it was a little too strong.

[Aric Dunn]

its having a hard time dealing with the strength of the ridge. thats probably why it keeps getting stuck and bouncing back and forth between runs

[Eyewall]

Strong ridge of high pressure on this run.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS at 156 Hours Strong Ridge keeps low stuck in Yucatan.