2020 EPAC Season

[BYG Jacob]

ITT; lots of angst

[Kingarabian]

00z UKMET supports the Euro system.

00z Canadian supports it too.

Great... more crappy muggy weather next week for Hawaii since these systems shut down the trade winds.

[Kingarabian]

00z EPS:

Maybe something for me to keep an eye on.

Credit: Weathermodels.com

[cycloneye]

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 700 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system
through the week while it moves west-southwestward and then
westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

Invest 90E is up

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1284859518208421890

[aspen]

Both the GFS and Euro develop 99E and 90E. The former will probably end up as another short lived TD or weak TS, but the latter is expected to develop within 72-96 hours and intensify more, maybe becoming a high end TS before it gets shredded.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1284890145611747332

[aspen]

Activity is finally returning to the EPac. Invest 99E is just about classifiable, while 90E looks really good and will likely develop within the next 72 hours. There’s even a decent chance of it nearing hurricane status.

[Yellow Evan]

Activity is finally returning to the EPac. Invest 99E is just about classifiable, while 90E looks really good and will likely develop within the next 72 hours. There’s even a decent chance of it nearing hurricane status.

This post has such an optimistic tone it is scary.

[aspen]

Activity is finally returning to the EPac. Invest 99E is just about classifiable, while 90E looks really good and will likely develop within the next 72 hours. There’s even a decent chance of it nearing hurricane status.

This post has such an optimistic tone it is scary.

At least we’re seeing something in the EPac. I’d take another weak TS like what 99E might become.

This season has been so pathetic that I’m getting excited over <40 kt systems.

[hurricanes1234]

Activity is finally returning to the EPac. Invest 99E is just about classifiable, while 90E looks really good and will likely develop within the next 72 hours. There’s even a decent chance of it nearing hurricane status.

This post has such an optimistic tone it is scary.

I could NOT have said it any better!!!

[cycloneye]

Is now or never for EPAC to at least shine a little. The question is if we will have the first hurricane from 90E.

[Yellow Evan]

In all seriousness, it's probably best we expect these storms to slightly underpreform rather than usual overpreform the model guidance given going forward rather than explicitly ruling any development out or going gunho out of the blue either.

[aspen]

Under the assumption that 99E will briefly become a named storm (convection has been building over the partially exposed LLC) and 90E will become a decently long tracking moderate/strong TS like Cristina, the EPac will pull ahead to have the highest ACE in the Northern Hemisphere. It’s not much, but it’ll be enough to have its time to shine...until the Atlantic goes nuclear in a few weeks and blows past both Pacific basins.

[aspen]

I think 90E and 99E are both worthy of classification by the next advisory, maybe 12z tomorrow at the latest.

[cycloneye]

Will this be a big one?

An area of low pressure is forecast to form more than a hundred
miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico toward the end of
the week. Gradual development of the system will be possible over
the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[aspen]

Will this be a big one?

An area of low pressure is forecast to form more than a hundred
miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico toward the end of
the week. Gradual development of the system will be possible over
the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/XpOScdn.png

Every single model has been showing this develop by 120-144 hours. Now watch them all drop it now that the NHC has marked the area lol.

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF and GFS have been showing a strong hurricane that moves northwest near Socorro Island. We’ll see.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is forecast to form well south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico later this week. Gradual development
of the system will be possible over the weekend while it moves
generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.