Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:No storm fellows the rules perfectly. In these rules are made out of 150 years of data. In which only the last 50 years of it is worth the paper its writen on. This storm could easly cut under this trough while the ridge to its north pulls it west. Remember Andrew??? Kyle?
The Atmosphere is not some thing that fellows a book/record. It is a always moving or changing. Lets just say if its over 26c or above waters with a half way favable enviroment. Ten its really up to how the ridges/troughs or steering currents that will move the cyclone where its going. It has nothing to do with a book made out of paper or records on a freaking computer.
Our Atmopshere is something that we are only starting to understand. Don't get me wrong the nhc is the best in the business but things change fast. In they do not always fellow the climo. They do not care what some person thinks in Florida or what I think. They just move around fellowing upper highs/troughs.
Yes models give us a idea of what going to happen. But its up to the forecaster to use his or her knowledge to not only look at 150 years of climo but to look at the pattern at hand. We need to think!!!
Anyone who uses climo exclusively is a fool. As is anyone who uses models exclusively. As is anyone who uses synoptics exclusively, ad nauseum. Forecasters have to use every tool to synthesize a forecast, they can't rely on one exclusively. That said, they can't throw one out without a good reason.
In the case of Emily's intenisty, there was a good reason. Pre-2005 climatology of July hurricanes would have argued that a near cat 5 hurricane would be impossible. However, with the combination of Dennis and the knowledge that SSTs in the area were nowhere near the normals of July that composed that climatology, the forecasters disregarded climo. If there were not the past precedent of Dennis and if there were not reliable SST data, they would have been absolutely insane to predict anything stronger than a cat 3... with the precedent and data it was reasonable.
Funny that you bring up Andrew. Earlier this morning, I pulled the climo for when Andrew's position would have most strongly argued against landfall. Even then, the 50 year record still indicated two storms that managed to make landfall, one of them doing so in Florida (albeit not S Florida). I would hope that the existence of a couple of storms that did make landfall combined with the synoptic situation at the time would have kept people thinking about the possibility of it hitting land.
Just pulled the climo on Kyle at its most unlikely position. Again, the 50 year record did not rule out landfall, instead it offered a precedent, Ginger of 1971:
http://www.weather.unisys.com/hurricane ... /track.gif
Using climo for the specific forecast would be nuts. If it weren't CLIPER would be the premier forecast model. However, it does provide a good idea of the general trend. If someone is going to forecast something that breaks the general trend you need to have very solid reasoning, as existed when climo was tossed in the case of Emily's intensity's forecast. One can't say ' well climo isn't everything, so I'm going to rate its importance as nothing'. Like I said above, the forecaster as to use all of the tools at his disposal.
And smile some too... enjoy the systems for what they are. Don't get all wrapped up in breaking records. 
