TD 10...Back Again

[storms in NC]

well i dont see one that has "out to sea" so when you said that i assumed to meant further up the east coast

Really it is anyone guess right now. We just have to wait a few days here and just see what it wil do

[gkrangers]

300 isn't unreasonable, it is moving with a more northerly component today.

12z Euro gets the storm reallllllyyyyyyy close to Cape Canaveral on Day 7.

[rockyman]

Re: 18z models...of more interest to me (as a GOMer) is the left hand turn on all 4 tropical models...signifying a building ridge that could shunt the system across Fla and into the Gomex.

[mvtrucking]

When TD 10 is re-upgraded we will know the moment advisories are up because still everything say "TD 10."

It looks like the models are pointing more west, perhaps GOM bound?

[JTD]

[/quote] This is a TD again.[/quote]

Yay!! Could we see a TD upgrade at 5 pm?

[deltadog03]

i think the gom has just as good of a chance as the east coast or ocean to be honest

[JTD]

OMG. The NHC 98AE is just too funny. It moves everything southwest after a while it seems.

[gatorcane]

It looks like the models are pointing more west, perhaps GOM bound?

It would have to cross the FL peninsula and/or the Straits first

[fci]

The system surely looks to be doing a comeback, but Dvorak numbers still don't show a depression. We need a ship report or Dvorak numbers to go up for the system to be upgraded. By the way, I don't like the models future movement of the system!

Let's hope Derek's comments on the other board hold true and models start showing a turn to the North at 65.
The models show way too much of a consensus right now to make me comfortable.

Hey Jose-Wannabe:

Either follow the MM% model that Derek is referring to or just continue to be as weak as you are now!!!!!

[frederic79]

Maybe it's just my tired eyes but it looks like Ex-TD10 is beginning to wrap in moisture and convection on the east side. Anybody else see this in visible sat pics?

[gatorcane]

It looks like the models are pointing more west, perhaps GOM bound?


It would have to cross the FL peninsula and/or the Straits first

Let me reempasize for those in S. Florida:

[storms in NC]

Maybe it's just my tired eyes but it looks like Ex-TD10 is beginning to wrap in moisture and convection on the east side. Anybody else see this in visible sat pics?

It got the smell of the moisture to the west side of him and said hey I need you. lol

[MiamiensisWx]

Maybe it's just my tired eyes but it looks like Ex-TD10 is beginning to wrap in moisture and convection on the east side. Anybody else see this in visible sat pics?

I see what you mean. Appears to be attempting to do just that... trying to organize...

[webke]

I see it also, it may be beginning to get itself together finally.

[rockyman]

May be old news, but here's the 2pm TWD on ex-TD10:

A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN...WAS NEAR 16N55W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 5 TO
10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W.
THIS LOW CENTER HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WAS NEAR 22N62W TO ITS WEST. THIS
SURFACE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD AN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WHICH STRETCHES FROM 31N41W TO 27N52W TO 22N68W TOWARD
THE NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS BORDER. THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST POSITION PUTS THIS LOW CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS LOW CENTER SHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS. RESIDENTS IN AND NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR CLOSELY THE
PROGRESS OF THIS FEATURE.

[WeatherEmperor]

It looks like the models are pointing more west, perhaps GOM bound?


It would have to cross the FL peninsula and/or the Straits first

Let me reempasize for those in S. Florida:

I second that.

<RICKY>

[Blown Away]

All the models pretty much clipping the "Hebert Box".

[wxwatcher91]

Florida should start preparing for this one however GOMers should watch this one too... if x-TD10 heads through the Florida straits it will seriously explode over those 32C waters... and then it will have the entire Gulf of 30C+ temps to explode some more!

[WeatherEmperor]

Florida should start preparing for this one however GOMers should watch this one too... if x-TD10 heads through the Florida straits it will seriously explode over those 32C waters... and then it will have the entire Gulf of 30C+ temps to explode some more!

lol lets try not to get TD10 very excited cause if he does, he is gonna do exactly what you say.

<RICKY>

[frederic79]

The GOM is also a moist atmospheric environment in addition to high SST's. TWC 10 day outlook calls for high rain chances throughout the period. Probably too early to speculate what shear conditions will be down the road.