Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

attallaman · #561 Postby **attallaman** » Sun Sep 16, 2007 11:48 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:As a response to some of the comments on the other thread..

I think we actually have a decent shot at seeing something develop next week. Not only are many of the models showing something in the GOM or caribbean, but we also have pro mets such as Jeff, Wxman57, Joe Bastardi and Jeff Masters all saying that the potential is there. Anyone trying to say that there is "little to no chance" of development next week needs to remember Humberto. He showed us that anything can happen..even when nearly everything is turned against a system. Considering this upcoming situation has much more model and met support than Humberto ever did though, I think chances of development are probably pretty high. We shall see what actually happens, but ATM I am leaning toward a better than not chance of development somewhere in the GOM or western Caribbean next week. Time will tell if i'm right..

So the threat of a system possibly entering the GOM might be "next" week and not "this" week; is that what you're saying?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #562 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 12:04 am

jhamps10 wrote:JB still says by thursday that we have something in the SEGOM, he's doing the tropical update video today, the one that's free for everyone on accuweather.

also he thinks that by the weekend that ingrid we may need to watch still, as he thinks that it may come back near the bahamas.

Please post the link to the JB video. Thank you.

jhamps10 · #563 Postby **jhamps10** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 12:08 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
jhamps10 wrote:JB still says by thursday that we have something in the SEGOM, he's doing the tropical update video today, the one that's free for everyone on accuweather.

also he thinks that by the weekend that ingrid we may need to watch still, as he thinks that it may come back near the bahamas.

Please post the link to the JB video. Thank you.

http://www.accuweather.com/news-video.a ... traveler=0

Click on tropical update.

southerngale · #564 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 2:17 am

00Z Nogaps

00Z CMC

00Z UKMET

southerngale · #565 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 2:44 am

Euro is out...

Stratosphere747 · #566 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 2:48 am

Look at Kelly busting out the model runs.

0z EURO does not develop anything out of the Caribbean, but is shows a low dropping down from the EC and into the GOM. As shown above in SG's post, the CMC, Nogaps and GFS does as well. Quite strange...

southerngale · #567 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 2:57 am

lol - I checked in here a few times and nobody had posted any, so I went and found them myself.

Now are you going to post the ones that show this going into the Eastern GOM? I couldn't find any.

Stratosphere747 · #568 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 3:03 am

Well it cuts across from the Eastern Gulf...And yes you guessed it - Various areas of the Texas coast.

I'll become more concerned when there is actually something developing, though I'm sure the Golden Triangle is back to being wary of anything again, including model runs.

southerngale · #569 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 3:14 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:Well it cuts across from the Eastern Gulf...And yes you guessed it - Various areas of the Texas coast.

I'll become more concerned when there is actually something developing, though I'm sure the Golden Triangle is back to being wary of anything again, including model runs.

Oh, yeah. You wouldn't believe the amount of people now interested in all this on a local forum. Many of them have joined here as well. 2 hurricanes in just under 2 years... one of them a major whopper, the other a rapidly-developing hurricane that caught everyone off guard. People are getting wary of clouds. J/K of course, but you get the picture.

Coredesat · #570 Postby **Coredesat** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 3:57 am

CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHWARD TO HISPANIOLA...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN OR EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

Meso · #571 Postby **Meso** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:00 am

The NAM doing the same as the CMC

southerngale · #572 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 4:13 am

Here's what some coastal AFD's are saying about the possibility of development.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
323 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND REMAINS FRAUGHT
WITH UNCERTAINTY...AS THERE HAS BEEN PRECIOUS LITTLE RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY OR AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH REGARD
TO THE UPPER LOW AND ANY ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THE
GENERAL IDEA IS FOR AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SE GOMEX THURSDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW...THEN
TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH THE GULF FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
LATEST GFS HAS COME IN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN...AND
THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF ITS PREVIOUS RUN. FOR THE TIME
BEING...WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FORECAST AS IS. THIS FITS WELL WITH
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF TIMING AND A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE OP GFS AND ECMWF POSITIONS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
302 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY
THEN WEAKEN EAST TO WEST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO
DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF. WITH REGARDS TO THIS DISTURBANCE...
GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH TAKING A BROAD WAVE...STRETCHING
FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN ON THURSDAY...
WESTWARD AND CLOSING OFF SOME TYPE OF LOW LEVEL OR SURFACE LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ON FRIDAY. THE 00Z GFS TAKES A WEAKER SYSTEM
NORTHWEST INTO LOUISIANA ON SATURDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN
ARE STRONGER AND FURTHER SOUTH...TAKING THE SYSTEM INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY/SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TEXAS
SUNDAY/MONDAY. AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLIER TO TELL IF ANYTHING
WILL DEVELOP AND WHERE IT WOULD GO.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
403 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE STILL GIVING
US MIXED SIGNALS CONCERNING THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL DE-
VELOPMENT OVER THE GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE
BEEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN AIMING THIS THING AT THE TX COAST BUT
12Z RUNS BARELY SEEM TO ACKNOWLEDGE IT AT TIMES. SO GIVEN THE IN-
CONSISTENT CONSISTENCY WILL OPT TO ADOPT A WAIT AND SEE ATTITUDE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
300 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

MODELS ARE CONTINUOUSLY
DEVELOPING TRYING TO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE
GREATEST VORTICITY LOBES SOUTH OF THE BOTTOM OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEPOSITED UPPER LOW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON TUESDAY. MODELS HAVE
MOVEMENT OF LOWER PRESSURE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN...EITHER
CROSSING EAST OR WEST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR THURSDAY...OR POSSIBLY
OVER THE KEYS...AND THEN EXITING SLOWLY OR REMAINING NEARBY FOR THE
WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...LOWER PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR OR SOUTH OF
THE KEYS ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE ARE CARRYING GOOD
CHANCE POPS ATTM FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
319 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
MINOR CHANGES IN MODEL GUIDANCE...OVERALL THERES NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO MID TO LONG RANGE FORECAST REASONING. SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY WITH
BROAD SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ADVECT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE REGION.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
417 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007

THERE REMAINS AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF IN BRINGING A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WESTWARD
ACROSS FL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DRAMATIC INCREASE
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (AND PRESUMABLY RAIN CHANCES) ACROSS OUR
AREA. BOTH MODELS DEPICT THIS FEATURE FROM THE SURFACE TO
500 MB...AND IT IS NOT CLEAR TO ME WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL BE
TROPICAL IN NATURE AS IT APPEARS TO BE A COMBINATION OF A TROPICAL
WAVE (CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN)...A TUTT (ALSO OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN)...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CLOSING OFF
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
432 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING THE MID/UPPER LOW
BECOMING STACKED AND BUILDING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WOULD NOT NORMALLY BE THE TYPE OF SYSTEM THAT
WOULD DEVELOP INTO A PURE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AT LEAST NOT VERY
FAST...HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE WAVE THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE THE TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK FROM NHC/TPC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
418 AM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

LATE IN THE WEEK...THE GLOBAL
MODEL MEMBERS OF THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/NAVY NOGAPS AND CANADIAN GEM
BRING A SURFACE LOW FEATURE...ORIGINATING ANYWHERE FROM OFF THE
FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF. THE CANADIAN IS THE MOST ROBUST OF THE FIVE...TAKING A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WESTWARD ACROSS THE MID GULF THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...APPROACHING THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE GFS/UKMET AND
ECMWF ARE FURTHER NORTH AND WEAKER...BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
UP INTO THE LOUISIANA COAST INTO THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH FORECASTERS
SEE A GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD...IT APPEARS THAT AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE SOUTHEAST US...SHOULD KEEP GULF SYSTEM ON A WEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST HEADING...SOUTH OF THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS THOUGH...WET
WEATHER SPREADS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTIES...WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE LATEST PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION AS OFFERED FROM THE 9/17 00 UTC MEX MOS OUTPUT.

Meso · #573 Postby **Meso** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 5:15 am

06z GFS 120 Hours

Extremeweatherguy · #574 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:00 am

attallaman wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:As a response to some of the comments on the other thread..

I think we actually have a decent shot at seeing something develop next week. Not only are many of the models showing something in the GOM or caribbean, but we also have pro mets such as Jeff, Wxman57, Joe Bastardi and Jeff Masters all saying that the potential is there. Anyone trying to say that there is "little to no chance" of development next week needs to remember Humberto. He showed us that anything can happen..even when nearly everything is turned against a system. Considering this upcoming situation has much more model and met support than Humberto ever did though, I think chances of development are probably pretty high. We shall see what actually happens, but ATM I am leaning toward a better than not chance of development somewhere in the GOM or western Caribbean next week. Time will tell if i'm right..
So the threat of a system possibly entering the GOM might be "next" week and not "this" week; is that what you're saying?

No, I meant this week. Since it was the weekend when I posted this though, I considered "next week" as being this Monday - Sunday.

#575 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:41 am

24 hrs:

48 hrs:

72 hrs:

#576 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 6:47 am

Well, just like we had excellent model agreement on the Caribbean system, we now get excellent model agreement on the east gulf to west gulf scenario. Now, what will actually play out is the question.

LaBreeze · #577 Postby **LaBreeze** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 7:45 am

Local mets are mentioning this during every report. They are even saying that we may have "Jerry" on our hands by the weekend and that we may have to watch this one carefully. Personally, I think that we should watch all of them "carefully". Anyone else hearing the same?

butch · #578 Postby **butch** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 8:10 am

Our local (Houston) Channel 11 morning met is David Paul and he always says something like the tropics are nice and quiet and moves on to finish giving local weather. Today he said the tropics are quiet but there is a tropical wave we need to keep an eye on. This is unusual and it gets your attention. He is not a hype-it-up kind of guy.

#579 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 8:14 am

I added (Off Florida Coast) to the title of thread as some models haved been showing something in that area.Is a complex situation that anywhere in the three areas mentioned in the title,something may spin up.

Derek Ortt · #580 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Sep 17, 2007 8:57 am

I think its time that we start looking east of Florida at the old frontal system for any development. Conditions remain downright hostile across the entire Caribbean and do not look much better (though they marginally are) off of Florida

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