2018 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Looks like the NH twin of the SPac's 91P.

Yup was about to say that.

[euro6208]

Lots of activity down the equator.

[Hayabusa]

[euro6208]

In Week-2, JTWC favors TC development, again in the far western Pacific, between 5N-15N, 135E-155E, with moderate confidence.

[euro6208]

Starting to see hints of another TC developing east of the Marianas.

[euro6208]

30W THREAD

30 TC's before October. What is the record for most on record?

[Hayabusa]

30W has now been assigned, if we go by JTWC this is one of the earliest 30W formation, forming on September. 2018 beats 2013 and 2004 on 30W formation by one month ahead, though during the 1994 Pacific typhoon season 30W was assigned on September 24. 1964, 1965, and 1967 Pacific typhoon seasons are arguably tied as the earliest 30W formation on mid September. 1964 Pacific typhoon season was also the most active season globally, can 2018 come close or tie or even beat 1964?

[euro6208]

MJO is non-existent and Kelvin Wave is barely noticeable yet the WPAC produce Cat 5 Trami and possibly a Cat 4 soon. The background state of the WPAC is quite favorable and with a modoki el nino coming, I'd hate to think what hell will be unleash.

[NotSparta]

MJO is non-existent and Kelvin Wave is barely noticeable yet the WPAC produce Cat 5 Trami and possibly a Cat 4 soon. The background state of the WPAC is quite favorable and with a modoki el nino coming, I'd hate to think what hell will be unleash.

The base state is almost always favorable given it's September and this is the WPAC

[euro6208]

MJO is non-existent and Kelvin Wave is barely noticeable yet the WPAC produce Cat 5 Trami and possibly a Cat 4 soon. The background state of the WPAC is quite favorable and with a modoki el nino coming, I'd hate to think what hell will be unleash.

The base state is almost always favorable given it's September and this is the WPAC

Calm before the storm.

[euro6208]

Super Typhoon Kong-Rey

Kong-Rey

The WPAC continues to produce very intense cyclones.

[euro6208]

GFS back at it again showing Yutu as the enhance phrase of the MJO starts moving through.

00Z and 12Z

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

Due to Madden-Julian amplifying in the Indian Ocean, we might end up with a little bit of a break once Kong-rey moves out (or we might not, you never know). With that said, here's how I would assess the peak intensities [1 minute sustained] of the season's six super typhoons thus far (operational intensity estimates in parentheses).

Kong-Rey: 165 kt (140 kt)
Mangkhut: 160 kt (155 kt)
Jebi: 150 or 155 kt (150 kt)
Maria: 145 kt (140 kt)
Trami: 140 kt (140 kt)
Jelawat: 130 or 135 kt (130 kt)

This season has certainly provided plenty of high end systems so far!

[dexterlabio]

^The emergence of that active MJO signal in MC/WPAC in the last week of October may start another round of insane outbreak...plus a 3-week break will be enough to recover from big-time upwelling due to the previous Cat5's in the area. With El Nino now on our doorstep, the typhoon (or super typhoon) season might also extend well into December.

[Hayabusa]

2018 has yet (if ever) to beat 1997's 11 super typhoons, 2018 is already tied with 2016 and 2015 in number (5) of category 5s, 1997 had 10 category 5s, but 2018 must first beat 2014s 7 category 5s, I counted 7 because Phanfone is listed as a category 4 despite the wiki summary says a total of 8 category 5s

[mrbagyo]

^The emergence of that active MJO signal in MC/WPAC in the last week of October may start another round of insane outbreak...plus a 3-week break will be enough to recover from big-time upwelling due to the previous Cat5's in the area. With El Nino now on our doorstep, the typhoon (or super typhoon) season might also extend well into December.

The latter part of the years is famous for many low rider and the lower Philippine Sea (west of 135E, S of 15N) still looks pristine ( only Mangkhut was able to traverse the region and it's in the northern part of it)

I'll just hope the ridge stays open in the latter part of this year with lot of deep troughs -if not, Philippines might not have a very happy Christmas.

[euro6208]

GFS still has some mischief occurring east of the Marianas mid month.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1046925976784031744

[euro6208]

Due to Madden-Julian amplifying in the Indian Ocean, we might end up with a little bit of a break once Kong-rey moves out (or we might not, you never know). With that said, here's how I would assess the peak intensities [1 minute sustained] of the season's six super typhoons thus far (operational intensity estimates in parentheses).

Kong-Rey: 165 kt (140 kt)
Mangkhut: 160 kt (155 kt)
Jebi: 150 or 155 kt (150 kt)
Maria: 145 kt (140 kt)
Trami: 140 kt (140 kt)
Jelawat: 130 or 135 kt (130 kt)

This season has certainly provided plenty of high end systems so far!

I understand your estimate for Kong-rey...With the absence of recon, 165 knots seems to be the barrier for most. A few WPAC typhoons change that belief.