2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1670030826829139968

[toad strangler]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1669889856389156865?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

1951 was nearly all open Atlantic recurves sans one true Caribbean Cruiser and near another CC that pooped out. So ya, bring on 1951!

[WiscoWx02]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1669889856389156865?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

1951 was nearly all open Atlantic recurves sans one true Caribbean Cruiser and near another CC that pooped out. So ya, bring on 1951!

I’m hoping for an active recurve season and an early one, Midwest looks dead this summer weather wise so it’ll be nice to have something else interesting to fall back on.

[SFLcane]

This!!! Agree 100% mark

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1670137621312307202

[JetFuel_SE]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1669889856389156865?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

1951 was nearly all open Atlantic recurves sans one true Caribbean Cruiser and near another CC that pooped out. So ya, bring on 1951!

Shows how even if recurves are favored during the season, timing is key.

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow, this is very interesting. It looks like the El Nino has been, in a way, stripped of its magical Pacific-boosting and Atlantic-destroying powers thanks to several other rather unfavorable factors.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1670189160869822465

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1670256235361488897

[ChrisH-UK]

The typical set up for an El Nino is a warm Pacific and a cool Atlantic with a large temperature difference. What we have at the moment is a hot Atlantic and a warm pacific even though the Pacific is in a El Nino that temperature gradient between the two is more like a neutral year abet a hot one.

[aspen]

Wow, this is very interesting. It looks like the El Nino has been, in a way, stripped of its magical Pacific-boosting and Atlantic-destroying powers thanks to several other rather unfavorable factors.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1670189160869822465

Seems like we could still get high Atlantic shear though, as Webb mentions the westerlies being able to migrate back south and dump anomalous shear into the basin.

[weeniepatrol]

Trailing wave behind AL92 looks pretty good. Decent surface convergence into it, for now

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1670462813121265664

[LarryWx]

https://twitter.com/NDGMETCHEF/status/1670462813121265664?s=20

I remember the very dry AEWs last season that lasted for nearly the entire July and August. They started soon after one of the most impressive June AEWs, the one that later became Bonnie.

[Cpv17]

What’s up with the cooling lately? Increased trades?

[NDG]

What’s up with the cooling lately? Increased trades?

Yes but still at record warm levels for this time of the year, and as long as the SSTs from the Azores down to off the NW coast of Africa stay very warm the MDR is not going to cool down much every time we get a surge of easterly winds because the waters coming down to the MDR are warmer than average already.

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1670775589626851330

[cycloneye]

This fellow knows a lot about all of this.

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1670786021989003270

[Hypercane_Kyle]

IMHO, the extraordinarily active June we're having in the MDR is likely a harbinger for a hyperactive Cape Verde season, unless shear ticks up.

[aspen]

IMHO, the extraordinarily active June we're having in the MDR is likely a harbinger for a hyperactive Cape Verde season, unless shear ticks up.

I’m still skeptical. The last two seasons have seen hyped-up early season MDR activity that immediately preceded long periods of hostile conditions and zero TC activity. 2021 had Hurricane Elsa before shutting off for a month. 2022 had the overhyped Bonnie, which ended up being too far south to amount to anything close to the aggressive GFS and Euro outputs, before going on an unprecedented two month slumber as a result of that crazy NW Atl marine heatwave. It’s totally possible that activity once again shuts off for a while starting in early July. Maybe the negative El Niño conditions are able to establish themselves far quicker than currently expected.

[Kingarabian]

A big part of the El Nino = slow Atlantic season reasoning is the EPAC, as an active EPAC would create strong sinking motion over the Atlantic. If it becomes active then the Atlantic will slow down. Right now that's not the case.

[IsabelaWeather]

IMHO, the extraordinarily active June we're having in the MDR is likely a harbinger for a hyperactive Cape Verde season, unless shear ticks up.

I’m still skeptical. The last two seasons have seen hyped-up early season MDR activity that immediately preceded long periods of hostile conditions and zero TC activity. 2021 had Hurricane Elsa before shutting off for a month. 2022 had the overhyped Bonnie, which ended up being too far south to amount to anything close to the aggressive GFS and Euro outputs, before going on an unprecedented two month slumber as a result of that crazy NW Atl marine heatwave. It’s totally possible that activity once again shuts off for a while starting in early July. Maybe the negative El Niño conditions are able to establish themselves far quicker than currently expected.

I don't think it's fair to talk about Bonnie as a failure, had it not struck SA then it likely would have performed much better.