TD#9

[Ivanhater]

looking at the ir loop, i think the center may be relocating under the convection, its possible with a weak system like this...or maybe the center has died out

[Derek Ortt]

just a note, maybe the admins can help

I am having to use a severely outdated browser to keep my lap top from blowing to smitherines (netscape 4.7). Can we avoid hotlinking in replies to myself as some images (not sure why not all, just some, again probably the old browser I am forced to sue until I can again use my office comp) overlap the next posts, making them unreadable


as for the center, I believe it is still west of the new blow-up based upon IR 2. Latest WV shows yet another UL dropping to the south north of the current one. TD may have to move west of 50W now before it can develop, not 45W as I previously thought.

As an aside, this pattern may persist for a while longer. There is no way we will see 21 storms if this persists for more than the next couple of weeks

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree Derek, forecasting 18 to 21 storms was a career killer.

[Astro_man92]

huh, Why?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its getting deadly for tropical cyclone development. You can't develop anohter 9 to 12 more with this.

[Steve H.]

The environment will change after next week. These ULLs are have their fun now, but they will disappear after next week. Cheers!!

[Astro_man92]

So you are saying that this will continue for a couple more weeks and we will see well below forcasted tropical cyclone numbers

I still think that we will have at least 16 i'm hoping for 20 or 24 lol

[gkrangers]

I agree Derek, forecasting 18 to 21 storms was a career killer.

Give me a break man...you realize there are 4 months of hurricane season left, and about 2 months of peak to come?

[elysium]

Hey! I think the SAL just cleared out! It looks like the convection is wrapping! It may have finally made it! Harvey's peddle to the metal and out of here. It looks like no more sheer! We should begin to finally see real cyclonic organization and very soon. If TD 9 can now just slow down and nudge up into the W.N.W. slot I think we're home.

[Astro_man92]

huh umm I don't think that the SAL is gone just yet, though it would be nice if i just vanished and didn't come back till next year

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm very sorry...I will not say things like that

[wxmann_91]

The environment will change after next week. These ULLs are have their fun now, but they will disappear after next week. Cheers!!

Or this year could be like 2000 (which I heard was a year where ULL's dominated the Atlantic).

[Ivanhater]

i really think the center may be forming closer to the convection...i could be way out in left field though

[gkrangers]

Dry air has increased on the western side according to WV.

Center is becoming very hard to locate on Shortwave imagery. Might be under that small "nugget" of convection on the western side of the main area of convection.

[sma10]

I agree Derek, forecasting 18 to 21 storms was a career killer.

We have 4 full months left in the hurricane season. If we have just an average, nonspectacular rest of the season (i.e. 4 storms in August, 4 in September, a couple in Oct, and maybe one stray in November) we'll end up with around 20.

It is not radically unusual for there to be some ULL's churning around in the North Central Atlantic. TD9 is only experiencing this harsh environment because it's sitting in the vicinity of 20N 40W. All things being equal, we usually wouldn't get excited about ANY tropical cyclone at 20N 40W, even if the environment was ideal. Why? Because cyclones sitting at 20N 40W recurve harmlessly out to sea approximately 100% of the time.

The environment is currently a lot better in the deeper tropics. If TD9 was 5 - 7 degrees lower right now it would be a completely different story.

Let's see some lower latitude waves cross the Atlantic before we decide that an 18 - 21 prediction is a career killer.

[Derek Ortt]

2000 has crossed my mind. We had well above shear throughout the season (one of the highest totals ever. In fact, earlier this year I looked at the seasonal shear mean for the MDR from July-October for every year since 1948, and 2000 actually had more shear than 1983). However, the area near CV was extremely favorable in 2000, which is why we had the storms developing in the far east Atlantic, then encountering the trough. The one storm that missed the worst of the shear, Debby, did so by whacking a couple of 10,000 ft mountains

[wxmann_91]

Because cyclones sitting at 20N 40W recurve harmlessly out to sea approximately 100% of the time.

Nothing is ever 100% definite, especially when it deals with TC's. I think that it will remain south enough to avoid the weakness (though a trough that is going to be near the East Coast will recurve it as it approaches IMO), but it should get interesting...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking at the night to visisble there is no signs of a LLC unwhere but near that new blow up of convection.

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsd ... PICAL.html

To make it more clear I think its under that new blow up.

[wxmann_91]

IMO TD 9's LLC is reforming to the north - that could make TD 9's chances of being a fish much higher, we'll see...

[elysium]

It's wrapping! This TD 9 is taking off! We should have a storm here soon. This is unbelievable. Every single one of us, including myself, was about to give up on 9. Not even the NHC had a clue that this was coming. And I admit it that no way did I see this coming either. The high pressure just in less than an hour kicked everything out, in just this past hour, and TD 9 just happened to be slowing down and caught underneath the convection. It was that dang high forward speed all along that was killing it. The sheer was never all that bad. The sheer that had been there as little as an hour ago is gone. i guess that with these systems one can never really know. only GOD can know. now the ridge weakness should assist in helping to lift TD 9 up a little more to the north, which should be good news for the islands.