TD 10...Back Again

[Weatherboy1]

While the tropical models do show a westerly bend at day 5, there is a MAJOR front that is forecast to dive all the way into the SE US, with NWS and HPC discussions talking about a frontal boundary pushing all the way south into NW FL, GA and the N gulf coast. While there is a chance that 10 will get far enough west, far enough south to get close to FL, I seriously doubt at this point in time (which admittedly is too early to say for sure) that this thing will make a direct hit on FL. And it almost certainly won't get into the Gulf IF this long-term forecast verifies. Instead, in such a scenario, it would likely start hooking N east of the Bahamas and likely be recurved out to sea. Again, not saying anything 100% here, but my opinion is that 10 will not get as far as the FL coast.

-Mike

[gatorcane]

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While the tropical models do show a westerly bend at day 5, there is a MAJOR front that is forecast to dive all the way into the SE US, with NWS and HPC discussions talking about a frontal boundary pushing all the way south into NW FL, GA and the N gulf coast. While there is a chance that 10 will get far enough west, far enough south to get close to FL, I seriously doubt at this point in time (which admittedly is too early to say for sure) that this thing will make a direct hit on FL. And it almost certainly won't get into the Gulf IF this long-term forecast verifies. Instead, in such a scenario, it would likely start hooking N east of the Bahamas and likely be recurved out to sea. Again, not saying anything 100% here, but my opinion is that 10 will not get as far as the FL coast.

I just don't see a front making it into NW florida in mid August I'm sorry...

[wxman57]

From 1215Z to 1915Z I measure a movement of about 299 degrees on GARP. Of course, the center is quite hard to find. I cannot see it as easily now as I could earlier today. Definitely no TD today. Circulation has become a little more broad today. Needs to get persistent convection near the center and create some inflow, which is sorely lacking now.

[Weatherboy1]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html

As you can see, this front is far enough south that 10 would never see a US landfall. Not to say this can't change ... it is a 5-7 day forecast, and it is only mid-August. But remember how far south that trough that caught Charlie got last year. And if the models and the HPC are relatively confident about a diving front making it into the SE, it lowers the chance of landfall. By Friday, we should be within the 4-5 day window from landfall that will allow us to be more confident about frontal positioning, 10's potential strength, etc.

-Mike

[clfenwi]

TAFB and SSD have not been in close (+/-.1 °) agreement in positions since yesterday afternoon, so an exact heading is low confidence. Considering how the long term average has been around 290° and how the system stair-stepped earlier, a 300° heading is plausible to me.

[dwg71]

TAFB and SSD have not been in close (+/-.1 °) agreement in positions since yesterday afternoon, so an exact heading is low confidence. Considering how the long term average has been around 290° and how the system stair-stepped earlier, a 300° heading is plausible to me.

I agree with heading, but I disagree with anybody who thinks this wave (not Jose, or even TD10, just wave) is getting its act together. It looks bad on visible, on IR, and on WV.

[LarryWx]

While the tropical models do show a westerly bend at day 5, there is a MAJOR front that is forecast to dive all the way into the SE US, with NWS and HPC discussions talking about a frontal boundary pushing all the way south into NW FL, GA and the N gulf coast. While there is a chance that 10 will get far enough west, far enough south to get close to FL, I seriously doubt at this point in time (which admittedly is too early to say for sure) that this thing will make a direct hit on FL. And it almost certainly won't get into the Gulf IF this long-term forecast verifies. Instead, in such a scenario, it would likely start hooking N east of the Bahamas and likely be recurved out to sea. Again, not saying anything 100% here, but my opinion is that 10 will not get as far as the FL coast.

-Mike

I agree with you 100%. I'm already saying no SE coast hit if it develops to a TS+ and probably even if it just gets back to TD status. Besides the upcoming trough, imho there is no Bermuda high of significance to steer it westward enough in advance of the trough to reach the longitude of FL, GA, SC, and probably even all of the way out to the NC Outer Banks. Of course, it may very well not get back to TD status anytime soon, if ever.

[elysium]

On day 4, the scenario for much improved conditions for development has become more likely, even though the ridge and conditions probably will be only very marginal at best until then. It's unlikely that conditions will improve much until then.

Whether you consider this good or bad news pretty much depends on how you feel about a weaker type system that begins a sudden rapid intensification but spares those in its path up until that point, versus your opinion about a strong system that provides those in its path with a lot of warning. It's too close to call.

There was a post indicating that on some of the tracks taken by model guidance, TD 10 represented the worst case scenario for S. Fla and the GOM. I would like to contest that theory if I might. I do not believe that this system represents a worst case scenario. TD 10 will unlikely be a large hurricane such as Frances or some of the other hurricanes listed as posing a similar threat based on track. TD 10, instead, will likely be a smaller system in size; bigger than Andrew but smaller than Frances. And not much bigger than Andrew. Intensity is tricky because if TD 10 begins its intensification process in 3 or 4 days rather than in 48 hrs, it may be close to land at that time based on current model guidance such as...well, all of them now. I think that one does have TD 10 passing just north of Cuba and another takes it through the Straits, but most are varying degrees north of those two outlyers.

I haven't hit a few of the sites that provide information enabling a high degree of confidence when used as the basis of something as challenging as a 5 or 6 day forecast. Until I have done, that it is better to delay issuing an unofficial forecast. I have no idea what TD 10 is likely to do. It doesn't appear, though, that the intensification process will take place within the 48 hrs or so that is being talked about. It looks more like we won't see appreciable intensification for 3 or 4 days. The ridge, IMO, is not looking all that good right now, and conditions appear very hostile for generation into anything more than a minimal system as the NHC is stating, only I don't think these conditions will improve very much for a little bit longer than the 24 to 36 hrs. as stated by the NHC. If the NHC has already adjusted that to read 3 or 4 days, then this comes as no news. I don't think they have as yet, though, but do think that they will.

The situation is far from dire over the very near term.

[Scorpion]

Im sorry elysium but you keep changing your mind, one day you think this will be the apocalypse the next its a non event.

[artist]

elysium - disclaimer???

[gatorcane]

who cares about the near term, it's the far term that everybody is interested in

[Ivanhater]

i think were on the verge of another burst of convection over the center in the next hour or so

[dwg71]

i think were on the verge of another burst of convection over the center in the next hour or so

Its that time of the day when convection bursts just about everywhere. Not at all unlikely, but I dont think its any indication of development. Its not even a depression.

[jabber]

TAFB and SSD have not been in close (+/-.1 °) agreement in positions since yesterday afternoon, so an exact heading is low confidence. Considering how the long term average has been around 290° and how the system stair-stepped earlier, a 300° heading is plausible to me.

I agree with heading, but I disagree with anybody who thinks this wave (not Jose, or even TD10, just wave) is getting its act together. It looks bad on visible, on IR, and on WV.

Gotta agree with you. Its getting hammered and any high clouds forming are getting sheared off to the NE. Lets see if it survives the night. This wave seems to like the dark.

[Ivanhater]

i think were on the verge of another burst of convection over the center in the next hour or so

Its that time of the day when convection bursts just about everywhere. Not at all unlikely, but I dont think its any indication of development. Its not even a depression.

i didnt say it was an indication of development, i simply said its about to pulse again

[Scorpion]

This wave is really ticking me off, it needs to develop im getting sick and tired of waiting.

[WeatherEmperor]

This wave is really ticking me off, it needs to develop im getting sick and tired of waiting.

I feel your frustration Scorpion. Im starting to get really iritated at it. Either develop or dont develop, I hate when it just cant make up its mind already.

<RICKY>

[Ivanhater]

This wave is really ticking me off, it needs to develop im getting sick and tired of waiting.

I feel your frustration Scorpion. Im starting to get really iritated at it. Either develop or dont develop, I hate when it just cant make up its mind already.

<RICKY>

well i do think it will start the intensification process tomorrow or friday...so not to long of a wait

[jabber]

This wave is really ticking me off, it needs to develop im getting sick and tired of waiting.

I feel your frustration Scorpion. Im starting to get really iritated at it. Either develop or dont develop, I hate when it just cant make up its mind already.

<RICKY>

Reminds me of another system lately... hummm what was her name.

[HURAKAN]

This wave is really ticking me off, it needs to develop im getting sick and tired of waiting.

I feel your frustration Scorpion. Im starting to get really iritated at it. Either develop or dont develop, I hate when it just cant make up its mind already.

<RICKY>

I think EX-TD 10 will reply to your comments in this way,

"Well, if I had the ideal conditions, or at least something close to it, I would have already become Jose and I will be a happy hurricane transversing the Atlantic. But because the only thing good I have to work with is hot sea surface temperatures, get use to only see sporadic burst of convection."