Model Runs & Discussions of GOM-Bahamas

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think its time that we start looking east of Florida at the old frontal system for any development. Conditions remain downright hostile across the entire Caribbean and do not look much better (though they marginally are) off of Florida

Is the blob East of JAX the beginning of all this?

[Derek Ortt]

possibly, but it would still be a few days off

I just cannot see what some are seeing regarding Caribbean development. Maybe I am totally overlooking something

[Sanibel]

Could be something trying to curl up with that Jacksonville blob over Ocala - Or could be radar illusion:


http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=JAX&loop=yes

[Vortex]

I think you can put a fork in it for anything anytime soon to form in carribean...

[Stratosphere747]

The mention of the Caribbean by many folks was based on the initial model runs. It has become obvious that the models are now focused on the area off the EC/Florida moving into the GOM.

Also the latest TWO mentioned that the wave in the Caribbean had a chance once it moved into the NW Caribbean or EGOM.

Not sure about any interaction.

[Portastorm]

At least from this amateur's perspective, I find it very curious that we have so much attention and interest strictly driven by model runs ... and the actual weather is showing so very little. This is going to be quite interesting to watch how/if it unfolds.

[Stratosphere747]

At least from this amateur's perspective, I find it very curious that we have so much attention and interest strictly driven by model runs ... and the actual weather is showing so very little. This is going to be quite interesting to watch how/if it unfolds.

I was to, until these latest runs Porta. And now we do have the decaying frontal system off the EC. It does look as if the models are now "sniffing" out something. The question of course, "Does it play out?"

[Derek Ortt]

there is a well-defined circulation on satellite this mroning

over the middle of Florida with the convection displaced well to the east

[Chacor]

712
NOUS42 KNHC 171430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 17 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-115

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 15N 55W AT 19/1800Z.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING FOR SUSPECT AREA NEAR JAMAICA
CANCELED AT 17/1130Z.
ALL P-3 TASKING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID
CANCELED AT 16/0240Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

[jhamps10]

please correct me if I am wrong, but it appears that the TPC, is forming this system out of the front, but also with help from the tropical wave. or that's what it looks like to me anyway.

[jasons2k]

Which one will it be?? Time will tell...

[DIDDLESBABE]

Derek - What does this mean for this system? And of course
the ever present question, what do you think it is going to
do?

[mattpetre]

Well well, this morning it looks more and more like the low that may develop is a feature that will come across Florida from an old front into the gulf over the next few days... This setup is quite a bit different than Humberto and should bring quite a bit more attention to itself before becoming a real threat if it does. I have been too bullish on some very minor features in the gulf lately, but that is mostly because the gulf is still the main area that would be conducive to good development at this moment. The areas carribean and atlantic are just a little to hostile right now...

So my latest prediction:

A depression will form 150 miles WSW of Tampa on Thurday around noon... just a guess... I'll make more predictions if that comes to fruition.

So far this year I said Dean and Felix would be more north than they ever were (totally wrong on path) -2pts
However, I believed very early that Dean and Felix would get as strong as they did (correct in general on intensities) 2pts
I predicted Erin's more northerly path and intensity (moderate TS getting stronger as she moved in) 2pts
Didn't have a clue as to Gabrielle other than what JB, Ortt and other pros had to say -1pt
Right on Humberto for a week before landfall on both path and intensity (bonus for lack of agreement) 3pts
Wrong about two other possibilities in the GOM after Humberto -2pts;
Totally wrong about Ingrid (along with a lot of folks) -1pt;

That puts me at +1pts this year on SWAG predictions... I'll take that considering I'm learning a lot this year...

[Derek Ortt]

I remain quite unimpressed with the entire region

Models have been pathetic with genesis this year and there is not really anything currently in the atmosphere that poses a significant risk. MAYBE a highly sheared TD/TS in the Gulf, but nothing more is likely

[Sanibel]

SST off Sanibel: 88*

There's zero in the Caribbean. Models were wrong.

[Sanibel]

A weak system backdooring from the NNE over Tampa is unsual. We'll see what it does if it survives and gets into the GOM.

[skysummit]

I'd like to hear wxman57's look on things this morning. A few days ago he was mentioning a storm in the gulf, and not just a weak TS. This morning things don't look too hot to support anything for the next couple days at least.

[tailgater]

I wouldn't totally right off the Caribbean formation just yet.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... or4-1.html
the TUTT or ULL seems to be weaking.
24 hrs. ago
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... or1-8.html
now
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... or1-1.html
let's wait and see if this trend continues. Also notice that the spin over northern fla doesn't show up yet.

[alienstorm]

The CMC is stating a low pressure area will form southeast of Miami off the NE coast of Cuba by tomorrow, and then moves it across the southern part of the state into the Gulf.

If you look at the northern extent of the Tropical Wave in the Carribbean this is what it is progging to develop with the help of the cutoff low to the north off the east coast of Florida. This is a very complex situation that may not start revealing itself until later tonight or early tomorrow.

[Stormcenter]

I still don't understand where this "potential" Carribean system came
from. The talk (models & NWS discussions) has always been something in upper levels coming across Fl. and moving westward across the GOM and acquiring tropical characteristics.