ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Dean_175]

So the CFS model has significantly increased the intensity of its predicted el nino in its most recent update (last updated today Apr 4, previous update was a week ago-Mar 27). Now all ensemble members are in the strong to very strong range (not even a single moderate) and the ensemble mean nino3.4 anomaly peaks at 2.3C!!














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[Yellow Evan]

1997 is def ahead of 2015. Only - here is that in 2015 there is a SHEM -PDO while there is a stronger +PDO signal in 2015.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Technically 2015 is MUCH ahead than 1997. Earlier STY to boost WWB and trade wind reversal, extremely high PDO and El Niño conditions are already in place. This time in 1997 had Niño 3.4 at 0.0C while 2015 notches at 0.7C. (Latter data from BOM)

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,What is going on that the nino areas 1+2 and 3 are falling like rocks? Nino 3.4 is also going down but like a rock.

[Dean_175]

Why have the SOI contributions been positive for the past week?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,What is going on that the nino areas 1+2 and 3 are falling like rocks? Nino 3.4 is also going down but like a rock.

Easterlies east of the dateline, associated with the passage of the MJO across the Indian Ocean. These phases are not favorable for warming of ENSO, but it is a temporary thing though as they weaken next week. Also explains the SOI

[Yellow Evan]

Why have the SOI contributions been positive for the past week?

MJO is in the IO right now, and we're losing the epic negative values from last month.

[Ntxw]

0.7C this week

[Ntxw]

Also with today's update it is now officially in the books. JFM came in at 0.5C per ONI this makes 2014-2015 officially a weak El Nino episode which crossed over the threshold last September extending through March this year (ongoing). Just a formality but we can say the El Nino drought is over.

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC weekly update at +0.7C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 1 minHace 1 minuto
Latest CFSv2 prediction calling for a robust El Nino event by August-October. Ensemble mean ~1.6C for Nino 3.4.

[LarryWx]

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 1 minHace 1 minuto
Latest CFSv2 prediction calling for a robust El Nino event by August-October. Ensemble mean ~1.6C for Nino 3.4.

Luis and other folks,
Although nobody can rule out it being as warm as ~+1.6C in Nino 3.4 for Aug-Oct., especially considering the very warm subsurface, I'd be very wary of this prediction as the uncorrected CFSv2 has tended to be warm biased in recent years. The better alternative may be to use the PDF corrected CFSv2, which has ~+1.1C for Aug.-Oct.'s avg. and ~+1.2 for Oct.-Dec.'s avg. Let's see what actually happens.

If the next peak between now and fall were to rise up to, say, only within the +0.6 to +1.3 range, I'd think that the winter of 2015-6 would have a good chance of being the 3rd overall cold winter in a row for at least most of the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS based on an analysis of the 12 2nd year El Nino's since the late 1800's. However, I'm thinking that the peak being within the lower end of this range (say, +0.6 to +0.7) is quite unlikely based on the current quite warm subsurface but we'll see.

If this next peak gets into the high end moderate to strong, then the chances of an overall cold winter for the bulk of the E 1/3 of the CONUS in 2015-6 would be a lot lower than it would be for a weak to low end moderate based on history though a largely near normal winter would be very much in play.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

CFSv2 (PDF corrected) shows a strong El Niño during the peak of the NHEM typhoon and hurricane seasons.

[cycloneye]

Updated warm pool graphic warms even more.It now compares the same as the 2014 one but the difference is things are more favorable in the atmosphere.The spring barrier has to be passed to see the real deal coming from this.

[cycloneye]

I assume the easterlies are blowing as all nino areas are falling especially 1+2 that is always the most volatile.

[cycloneye]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1 hHace 1 hora
http://Weatherbell.com took strong stand against major el nino last year.However this years will be stronger,but start backing off in winter

[tolakram]

I'm not at all convinced we'll have a very strong El Nino this year, especially looking at the historic records. Seems to me the most likely, using only history as a guide, that we'll be neutral in September. When October has been in El Nino territory the following September is neutral or cold. First time for everything, of course, and past performance is no real indication of future performance. Just interesting ....

[Yellow Evan]

I'm not at all convinced we'll have a very strong El Nino this year, especially looking at the historic records. Seems to me the most likely, using only history as a guide, that we'll be neutral in September. When October has been in El Nino territory the following September is neutral or cold. First time for everything, of course, and past performance is no real indication of future performance. Just interesting ....

That situation is very unlikely IMO, due to the warm subsurface. FYI, 1987 was the last multi year El Niño, so it has happened before.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow... even JB says there will be stronger El Niño this year

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I'm not at all convinced we'll have a very strong El Nino this year, especially looking at the historic records. Seems to me the most likely, using only history as a guide, that we'll be neutral in September. When October has been in El Nino territory the following September is neutral or cold. First time for everything, of course, and past performance is no real indication of future performance. Just interesting ....

Wow. Did you ever realize that there are some instances of multi-year events? Models are now extremely bullish. There has been evident atmospheric feedback/response and strong WWB due to super typhoon Maysak and Cyclone Pam. The most recent occrence of multi-year Niño was in 1986-88 when a moderate El Niño STRENGTHENED (after weakened) to a strong El Niño. This was also the first documented event to transition from Modoki to Eastern Equatorial.